Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Newcastle

A Matthew Smith-trained gelding has handed in two rock solid performances to start his career and should appreciate the step up in distance. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL

Racing ion New South Wales on Thursday is a Newcastle with the Provincial-Midway Championships Qualifier the feature event.

Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Newcastle.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

NEWCASTLE

BEST BET

Race 6, No.5: PYRAMID OF FIRE

Placed at his first two runs, one at 900m the other 1000m. If ever a horse wants 1200m now, it’s this one. Go well.

NEXT BEST

Race 7, No.7 ASTERO

A lot of horse have had ‘perfect lead-ups’ to the Qualifier, none any better than this Matthew Smith Zoustar gelding who is timed to peak.

VALUE BET

Race 1, No.5: MONFELICITY

Would not be in the least surprised to see this Vadamos filly win her way into the Oaks. Will stay all day - from the front too.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 4,7,10,11

Race 6: 3,5,13

Race 7: 3,6,7

Race 8: 2,4,5

BEST EXOTIC

Exacta Race 7. No.7 Astero to beat No. 6; Akihiro

Tom Sherry has a good book of rides on Thursday. Picture: Getty Images

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Tom Sherry has some nifty rides, none more important than Astero in the big Qualifier.

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR NEWCASTLE

RACE 1

Monfelicity is no Montefilia but trainer David Payne has Oaks aspirations for the former. She is $51 to win the Oaks by the way. As for this race, she had to come back from 2100m to 1890m recently given there was nothing else around; the 2300m this time plays to her strength. Aquileo was just behind Monfelicity in that race here on Feb 12. Gives every impression he will appreciate the longer trip now too. Kingdom of Gold will run two miles. Bit dour but remains a chance.

Bet: Monfelicity to win

RACE 2

Greenheart has only one win in his 16 starts but he has placed 10 times, six of those are seconds. The really compelling numbers are what he does here at home and at the 900m. As well as all that. the son of All Too Hard has run in some pretty decent standard races lately. Zalini, part owned by the great Neville Voight, is a lightly-raced and progressive filly who beat them easily to win her maiden over this same t/d 13-days ago. The honest and consistent Barney Rubble is a player.

Bet: Greenheart to win

RACE 3

To His Credit is a Triple Crown/Snowden Racing colt by the young and promising sire Hellbent. The horse looks cheap at $50,000 (Inglis Classic 2021) having set the scene for a win here with that honourable fourth at the midweeks. Affidavit is a grandson of Forensics. Hasn’t looked to fire, on paper that is, in his two runs but if he ever runs on race day like he trials - he will be winning – lots. Fenway’s son Williamsburg beat these two above home at Warwick Farm.

Bet: To His Credit to win, box trifecta 1,5,6

Hugh Bowman (pictured) partners To His Credit for Peter and Paul Snowden. Pictured: Getty Images

RACE 4

Sabino is owned by George Altomonte who has the great distinction of having bred two Golden Slipper winners. This gelding racing here has placed at two of three runs and it would not be unduly unfair to the opposition here that those two races were much better than this one. Market the best guide. Latin Lyric hasn’t won in 17 starts but she has placed seven times. She just gives away such huge starts but she might mow most of these down on Thursday. Beholder has turned in two fine performances sine she arrived at Newcastle.

Bet: Sabino to win, quinella 1,7

RACE 5

Dalchini has placed at three of her four starts; she ran third on debut to Arthur Francis (tick), fourth to Sunborn after that (tick) and resumed with a third at the midweeks (tick). That has to be the right form to win this admittedly rather impressive line-up (if they all start). Ruinart is above average. As a fan, I feel I can say she has been a wee-bit costly, but gambling aside - her runs have all been very good. Hollywood North had ‘next time’ written all of him in and after that Warwick Farm race on Feb 9.

Bet: Dalchini to win

RACE 6

Pyramid Of Fire has raced twice so far, once over 900m then 1000m and was the explicit eye-catcher each time. Heaven knows what his splits might have been when you consider that the race sectionals were 33 flat and 33.80s (last 600ms). Up to 1200m and at Newcastle, he might run right over the top of them. No nay Jubilee is another one that should appreciate a little extra ground. Nicely weighted. Waller stablemate Endorsement was super impressive winning his trial at Rosehill. Reateros didn’t have a whole lot of luck on debut.

Bet: Pyramid Of Fire to win, Daily Double 1st leg (5), 2nd leg (2)

Kathy O'Hara rides Pyramid Of Fire on Thursday. Pictured: Getty Images

RACE 7

Astero is in great shape ahead of his Provincial/Midway Championships Qualifier. He’s not alone there of course, but Matthew Smith must be (and is) delighted with the way the horse has been performing this prep. Bang on for 1400m now. Akihiro was in the VRC Derby two runs ago. The Gary Portelli-trained colt was actually pretty good first-up in that 1300m Midway off the one trial. Rustic Steel’s chances of running 1400m went up with he drew 5. Bowman/Lees/good horse.

Bet: Akihiro to win, quinella 6,7. exacta 7 to beat 6

RACE 8

Black Bolt, the grandson of Glamour Puss, resumes here in the last for Maher/Eustace and the in-form and always reliable Keagan Latham. The brings is to his first-up record which reads as a win and two placings from four fresh runs. Best of all, his trials have been outstanding. Dark Rebel generates a lot of interest himself. A striking son of Astern, the Edward Cummings-trained gelding has a bit of an X-factor about him. not forgetting how well he ran in the Ming Dynasty back in August. Sing A Love Song in on an upward trajectory.

Bet: Black Bolt to win, Dark Rebel each-way

Originally published as Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Newcastle