Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Kensington

A James Cummings-trained filly with the right pedigree who has shown plenty of natural ability can kick off her latest campaign on a winning note. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL

Trainer James Cummings prepares Kementari’s little sister, Laurelin, who looks a good chance when resuming at Kensington on Wednesday. Picture: Getty Images

Daily Telegraph form analyst Ray Thomas gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Kensington.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

KENSINGTON

BEST BET

Race 6, No.9: LAURELIN

Laurelin, a full-sister to Kementari, has only been to the races twice but her win at Kensington over 1100m back in July was indicative of her natural sprinting ability. Resumes here off an impressive barrier trial win and has the speed to take full advantage of her rails draw.

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Race 7, No.6: CAPE BRETON

Cape Breton won his first two race starts in style and was given his chance at Group 1 level late in his two-year-old season but ran unplaced. He failed to fire in two starts during spring but he has trialled very well leading into his comeback run.

VALUE BET

Race 4, No.5: BEDFORD SQUARE

Bedford Square is about to contest her seventh race this campaign but her form continues to improve. She was dominant winning over the Kensington 1550m course last start and is a good gamble around $5.

QUADDIE

Race 4: 1,2,5,6

Race 5: 1,3

Race 6: 4,9

Race 7: 6,7, 11,14

Talented apprentice Ellen Hennessy has a number of good rides at Kensington on Wednesday. Picture: Getty Images

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Emerging apprentice Ellen Hennessy’s 3kg claim could prove decisive when she links with Café Royal (race 3), Easy Campese (race 4) and Jyoti (race 6).

TRAINER TO FOLLOW

Team Hawkes has provided jockey Willie Pike with three good chances at the Kensington meeting – Dashing Legend (race 1), Sarsen (race 2) and Yukon (race 5).

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR KENSINGTON

RACE 1

An intriguing two-year-old race loaded with well-bred first starters but I’m leaning to the youngster with race experience, Deep Expectation. She failed in the Gimcrack Stakes last spring but resumed with a very good second to Plymstock over 1000m at Randwick. Deep Expectation showed brilliant speed that day and opened up what looked to be a winning break halfway down the straight when she suddenly veered out under pressure and lost some momentum. She will be better for that run and has drawn to get the right run. I was impressed by the trial win of Dashing Legend and wanted to put her on top but her wide draw is a leveller. Nolan is a striking son of Caravaggio who ran a blinder on debut. He will be charging home. Big watch on Sha Of Gomer who tore around Warwick Farm to win his trial with ease earlier this month.

Bet: Deep Expectation, watch betting moves for Sha Of Gomer

RACE 2

Money From The Sky, a well-bred colt by English superhorse Frankel out of a dual Group 1-winning mare, has shown staying promise in his three-race career. Resumes today after two recent barrier trials and although the inside barrier over the Kensington 1400m isn’t ideal for him with any luck in running he can finish over the top of his rivals. Taborca only just missed last start and is nearing a win but has to overcome a wide draw. Dresden ran a solid race on debut and can only improve. Gwan So is a very interesting runner. He was placed in four of his five starts in England last year and makes his debut for the Annabel Neasham stable after a good third to the speedy Expat in a Warwick Farm barrier trial.

Bet: Money From The Sky to win, saver on Taborca who is way over the odds.

Trainer Nathan Doyle has dropped Cafe Royal back in grade and she looks a good chance. Picture: Grant Guy

RACE 3

Café Royal ran very well first-up to beat all but Broken Arrows at the Warwick Farm midweeks then she stepped out in Sydney Saturday grade and ran below her best when near last to Bring The Ransom at Randwick. Café Royal had to work hard from a wide barrier to cross and lead before fading in the run home. She was featured in the steward’s report after that loss and is definitely worth another chance, particularly coming back in grade. Hope In Your Heart is an emerging staying filly coming off a good comeback run. She is staying at 1400m which is a concern but with a genuine tempo, she should be running on. Score is a new addition to the Annabel Neasham stable and goes into this race off a five-week break since her second to subsequent stakes winner. Her form lines make compelling reading for this race. Cap Estel got the dream inside run to win her last start.

Bet: Café Royal to win but follow any market moves for Score

RACE 4

Bedford Square followed a hat-trick of second placings but racing away to win over this course and distance by a widening margin two weeks ago. She did get all the favours in the run last start but it was a deserved victory. She’s a mare in a rich vein of form and will go close again. Easy Campese bolted in over 1400m here last start and he does excel on this track. The one to beat despite his big weight. Sinba did a great job to run down his older rivals at Newcastle first-up and rates highly. Narvaez is better suited here.

Bet: Box trifecta 1,2,5,6

RACE 5

Galaxy Belle was dominant at Newcastle second-up, careering away to win by nearly five lengths over 1600m. She won three races in succession at 1800m before going for a spell when last in work so she will appreciate going back out to that distance here. Yukon is the obvious danger. He looked to have every chance when a close fourth to Arctic Thunder over the Randwick mile second-up but he will be fitter now. Yukon has won over the Kensington 1800m course and could give jockey Willie Pike his first Sydney winner. Lennon is racing consistently and Shameless Miss was a tough first-up winner.

Bet: There is not much between Galaxy Belle and Yukon so watch for market moves.

Hugh Bowman (pictured) partners Galaxy Belle on Wednesday. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 6

Laurelin, a full-sister to Group 1 winner Kementari, is a speedy filly who won easily over the Kensington 1100m course at her only second start back in July. She’s resuming off a long spell but was impressive taking out a Randwick trial recently. Drawn barrier one, has James McDonald to ride, and 1000m first-up is ideal. She should win. Stoical has a good first-up record and excels over this short trip. Way To The Stars won her first two starts impressively then got run off her legs by the speedy Sky Command at Canterbury. She can run an improved race here. Duchess is a tough, on-pacer at her peak after two runs from a spell. h

Bet: Laurelin to win

RACE 7

Cape Breton showed promise as a late season two-year-old last year but didn’t come up in two starts during spring. He produced an encouraging trial when close late for second at Rosehill last week and James McDonald is a significant booking. Kennedy Choice is a genuine type and won’t be far away if he gains a start. From The Bush is a handy type resuming off two trials and big watch on Construct now he is back on top of the ground.

Bet: Cape Breton to win, Box trifecta 6,7,11,14

Originally published as Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Kensington