Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Kensington

A high-priced colt from the Chris Waller yard us ready to put his best foot forward while John O’Shea has a lightly-raced gelding trialling up a storm. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL

Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Kensington.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

KENSINGTON

BEST BET

Race 1, No.4: MONTENEGRO

I Am Invincible colt out of VRC Sires’ winner Twilight Royale who cost $1.4 million at the sales. Backed off the map (failed/spelled) on debut. Expect better here.

NEXT BEST

Race 5, No.7: BLESK

Has all the trial watchers talking him up and rightly so. Performs fresh, just needs a solid tempo and a fair track.

VALUE BET

Race 4, No.4: AUSTRATA

Gosford just wasn’t ‘his track’ last start. Up to 2400m on Wednesday, perhaps he can be a fair bit handier from barrier 3.

QUADDIE

Race 4: 2,4,7

Race 5: 5,10

Race 6: 2,7

Race 7: 1,2,5,9

BEST EXOTIC

Exacta Race 1: No.4 Montenegro to beat No.6: California Surreal.

Hugh Bowman (pictured) and Chris Waller are on the verge of bringing up a milestone together and can hit the mark at Kensington on Wednesday. Picture: Getty Images

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Hugh Bowman has two rides for Chris Waller on Wednesday; if they both win - that’s 400 together.

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR KENSINGTON

RACE 1

Montenegro was the second most expensive yearling at the Easter sale in 2020, knocked down for $1.4 million to Tom Magnier. A son of I Am Invincible and 2013 VRC Sires winner Twilight Royale, Montenegro was $5 into $3.80 when he beat one home on debut at Warwick Farm on June 2 and was tipped out. He is about one point four million times better than that. California Surreal got very close to the above-average Kooled at Gosford last start. Ran well here first-up too. Dufresne’s prospects rose considerably when he drew barrier one. Hopefully this particular Dufresne doesn’t get ‘locked up’ (sorry, too easy).

Bet: Montenegro to win, exacta 4 to beat 6

RACE 2

Sword Point is a very nice horse but he might be saved for Newcastle. Chris Waller accepted with nine horses, not all of them will run of course but to say he holds all the aces is an understatement. Me? I think Sword Point is the most talented and promising of all of them. If the son of American Pharoah is absent it would open the door for Twiglet’s great-grandson, Able Willie in The Autumn Sun colours. He is trialling like a good horse. Lady Piaf’s five trials (dating back to March) have all been good, none better than her September 3 heat win.

Bet: Sword Point to win but, if scratched, Able Willie to win

James McDonald (pictured) is looking to notch another win on Beep Test. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 3

All eyes will be on James McDonald at the start here and what happens with Beep Test from the outside alley. The daughter of All Too Hard has led and won and come from well back and should have won (on debut), so the point is, she seems an adaptable filly. Rathvilly Miss hasn’t won on the Kenso but she’s still the ‘track specialist’. Greg Hickman’s mare has raced here six times for four seconds and a third. No disgrace in being beaten by Promise Of Success 14-days ago. Stolen Glance is a handy mare who has a first-up win on the C.V.

Bet: Beep Test to win, quinella 6,7

RACE 4

Austrata is a son of Australia and is closely in-bred to Sadler’s Wells so there can be no doubt that he is well equipped to run 2400m for the first time on Wednesday. On top of that, this flashy chestnut gelding has drawn barrier 3 so you would imagine he won’t run an inch further than he needs to. Long story short vis-a-vie the last run; Gosford just isn’t his track. Daysan is no Protectionist or Mugatoo or Luncies but he is most assuredly on an upward trajectory. That’s plain as day given that the Kentucky-bred gelding is on a hat-trick. Land Ahoy hasn’t reached the Gust Of Wind or Luvaluva heights that she vaguely promised early on but can figure in the finish.

Bet: Austrata to win, exacta 4 to beat 2

RACE 5

How could you not be impressed with Promise Of Success’s win here two weeks ago. Hugh Bowman rode her like was sitting on Winx that day. It was like he knew that he was on the best horse; he was last at the 200m but there was only ever going to be one winner - him and her, her and him. Speaking of Bowman, he rode Salsonic at this same meeting 12 months ago. Salsonic hasn’t won since but you could put that down to pattern track bias.

Bet: Promise Of Success win, exacta 5 to beat 10. Daily Double 1st leg (5), 2nd leg (9)

Trainer John O'Shea has a number of leading contenders at Kensington including Blesk, Promise Of Success and Beep Test. Picture: Grant Guy

RACE 6

Blesk has been the talk of the trials this month. The Waikato Stud bred son of Savabeel looks to be in the best shape of his career at present and we know from past experience that he always performs fresh. He needs two things - a solid enough pace and a fair track so he can launch late. Another One had excuses first-up when third at $1.70 at Wagga. Trialled since. A lot of people reckon he should have won the Country Championships Final. Much Much Better ticks a lot of boxes.

Bet: Blesk to win

RACE 7

Dinado’s best chance of winning this preparation may have been at her last start here two weeks ago and it didn’t happen. If you have followed her (like me) from the start of her campaign, it’s maybe not the time to jump off unless she lets the side down again here that is. Mayfair Spirit had every chance in the world at Gosford. Wasn’t beaten far and will be at his fittest since he arrived in Australia. Kingsheir is the highest rated horse racing in Sydney all day. Good draw. Jojo Was A Man has to be respected.

Bet: Dinado each-way

Originally published as Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Kensington