Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Kensington, Mudgee
Following a solid first-up run, a Bjorn Baker-trained mare can break through for an overdue win. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL
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Daily Telegraph form analyst Matt Jones gives his best bets and runs the rule over the Quaddie legs at Kensington and Mudgee.
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KENSINGTON
BEST BET
Race 6, No.4: EXOTIC RUBY
She doesn’t win out of turn but this can be her day. She’s down in grade off a nice fresh run, does perform well second-up and doesn’t have to carry much more weight now.
NEXT BEST
Race 1, No.6: FINEPOINT
She’s ready to peak no third-up after running on well at her first two runs and the gap back to the third horse last start was fairly significant. Ready to win.
QUADDIE
Race 4: 1, 3, 4, 6
Race 5: 2, 6, 7, 9
Race 6: 3, 4, 8
Race 7: 2, 8, 12
JOCKEY TO WATCH
Nash Rawiller rides two good chances for Godolphin to start the day while Lady Brook, Mensa Missile and Rubamos should go very close to winning later on.
MUDGEE
BEST BET
Race 5, No.4: LARYNX
This horse has won its past two in good fashion and steps up in grade now but it looks like a good time to do it as this race falls away in terms of the better chances.
TRAINER TO WATCH
Cameron Crockett can have a day out at his old home track with the likes of Time For Victory, Reiby’s Regent, Limited Reality an Unrestricted set to race well.
THE INSIDE MAIL FOR KENSINGTON
RACE 4
Jazzland has been running super races from the front since his nine-week let up and has won here at his only attempt and will give them something to catch as they round the home bend. Too Much Caviar has also been a model of consistency to date and this is an interesting assignment, third-up off a 1300m win and third placing over 1500m. Can he run this out? He should and it will be interesting to see how he and Jazzland go against each other and who lets the other take it up. For Valour might even lead as he chases a hat-trick on a quicker back up which is ideal.
Bet: Jazzland to win
RACE 5
With no real standout here, it might be the day for a horse like Tejori to bring bush form to town and get the job done. She just needs to start well. Sweet Ruby will push forward and Hugh Bowman sticks after they won at Wyong two weeks ago and she’s a horse with a nice record and is on the way up. Bitcoin Baby will take plenty out of her fresh run and gets in well at the weights while Lady Brook is honest and will test them all the way and with a length or two of improvement she can secure and much deserved win.
Bet: Bitcoin Baby to win
RACE 6
Mensa Missile hasn’t fired fresh from three attempts but the punters are backing him to do it here after two solid trials while the blinkers come off and he gets gate three under Nash Rawiller who might be the key to him. Exotic Ruby drops in grade and will improve off a good first-up fourth in Saturday grade and the apprentice claim means she gets in well at the weights. Duty has beaten a Group 1 winner in the past and is one to watch fresh, particularly in the market. Kerrin McEvoy’s ride from a wide draw will be key.
Bet: Exotic Ruby to win
RACE 7
Speed Legend will appreciate getting off Canterbury and onto this track where he’s a better chance form an off-speed position and he peaks now third-up and should stalk them one off the fence. Rubamos beat him home two runs back at Canterbury and this horse was given a pass mark last start behind a smart stablemate so he can’t be ignored. John O’Shea has put the blinkers on I Am Lethal for the first time which may be the key to him winning again in town like he did two runs back.
Bet: Rubamos to win
THE INSIDE MAIL FOR MUDGEE
RACE 5
Larynx is more than ready to step up to a Benchmark 66 grade after two easy wins in Benchmark 58 races and while he would want a drying track, he’ll appreciate getting his toe into it again and barrier one is a good one for the on-pacer and with no rider nominated on Lemaire and Nick Olive’s pair unlikely to go around and On A Promise scratched things are opening up further for Larynx. Brother Bassy has been freshened since running pretty well in a Class 3 Highway and has to come into calculations as this field falls away. Hit The Rim is an each-way hope if the track gets out of the heavy range.
Bet: Larynx to win
RACE 6
Messy Miss loves wet ground and has a win at this track and three victories at 1200m. She’s drawn out but likes to sit off the speed anyway and by this time of the day out wide might be the place to be. Reiby’s Regent gets the gun run in transit and has the recent form on the board to be going close here and she wears the ear muffs pre-race only for the first time. Stablemate Time For Victory had cardiac arrhythmia which was the excuse for the flop last start. Horses often come out and fire at their next run when this happens and he relishes a heavy track.
Bet: Time For Victory to win
RACE 7
Nick Olive is super confident about how his horse Ready To Humble is going heading into this off a Snake Gully Cup win and is glad that Ladylovestogamble has been scratched. Highly Desired however is set to go around and it ran well in the $700,000 Four Pillars two runs back and was second at Canterbury three weeks ago. It’s the right form to be winning a country cup. Rule The World is in the Mack Griffith yard now and comes to him off a second placing behind Kubrick at Doomben in a Saturday race so he should be respected.
Bet: Quinella 5, 7
RACE 8
Limited Reality was put away after winning his first two starts over 1000m and 1100m for Cameron Crockett and he’s given him three trials and ran second in the latest one behind a horse that came out and won fresh. Mr. Burgundy has already established a nice racing style off two good provincial runs which included a win last start at Gosford and he should be fine if the track is still heavy when the last is run. Denace drops in grade and should push forward from a wide gate but might be suspect late.
Bet: Mr. Burgundy to win
Originally published as Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Kensington, Mudgee
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