Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Kembla Grange

A John O’Shea-trained gelding is set to kick off his campaign in style while Mark Newnham has an exciting filly heading for bigger things. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL

Racing in New South ales on Tuesday is at Kembla Grange.

Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Kembla Grange.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

KEMBLA GRANGE

BEST BET

Race 5, No.12: SANSTOC

A sister to ATC Derby winner Tavago on her way to the Oaks and is surely good enough to be in the finish. Top debut; loaded with talent.

NEXT BEST

Race 4, No.1: ARTHUR FRANCIS

John O’Shea-trained son of his TJ Smith winner, Foxwedge. Definitely a city class horse who is in for a big preparation.

VALUE BET

Race 3, No.12: STALKING

Speaking of the Oaks, this Godolphin filly is more than likely to be in the race. Good starting point for her here.

FIXED ODDS WATCH

Sanstoc (ATC Australian Oaks) is a $51 chance to win the Oaks. You can bet she won’t be those odds if she makes the field.

QUADDIE

Race 4: 1

Race 5: 12

Race 6: 1,3,4,7

Race 7: 1,3

Keagan Latham has a strong book of rides at Kembla on Tuesday. Picture: Getty Images

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Keagan Latham rides Kembla as good as any jockey and better than most. He could win Tuesday’s TAB Jockeys Challenge.

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR KEMBLA GRANGE

RACE 1

Bahama is a Kia Ora-bred three-quarter-sister to Group 3 winner and Group 1 placed Zululand. The Team Hawkes-trained filly trials like a Group horse herself but for one reason or another hasn’t fired to any significant degree, albeit in just three starts and with excuses. Elusive Birdie has looked sharp in her two trials this month. Could easily figure. Russian Standard is fast and furious but has been costly. Said Hanrahan was excellent on debut at Newcastle.

Bet: Bahama to win

RACE 2

Gwenda Markwell and Keagan Latham are a dynamic duo; especially here at Kembla. They combine in this one with Comeback Star whose only win so far was here at home back in the winter. Went okay in the Count De Rupee heat here on Feb 9. The wet? Not sure. Sebrenco has raced on Heavy tracks twice and finished runner-up each time. Scratched from a race at Tamworth yesterday to go around here. Don Luigi is zero from nine on Good track but four starts for two wins and two placings on the Heavy. That could be crucial if the rain has arrived.

Bet: Comeback Star to win

Nash Rawiller (pictured) and trainer James Cummings combine with Stalking. Picture: Trackside Photography

RACE 3

Stalking is an Animal Kingdom filly from the Godolphin stable and you would imagine that trainer James Cummings is thinking Keith Nolen, Adrian Knox, Vinery, Oaks with her. She was fourth in a Manifold in the Spring and not disgraced in the Ethereal and Wakeful after that. Lukey Luke is another Markwell/Latham chance on the card. This son of Denman ran a huge race here at his only start - huge. Alpine Bronze, the granddaughter of Skating has the makings of a handy filly. Trials were very good. Poetic Drama is a market watch. Baranof has to be respected of course.

Bet: Stalking to win, box First 4: Nos. 1,5,7,11,12

RACE 4

Arthur Francis is trained by John O’Shea and is a son of his own TJ Smith winner Foxwedge. Pedigree buffs will be keen to learn his third dam is NZ’s celebrated broodmare - Lovenvain. As for the horse himself, he has two ‘fifths’ on his C.V, one to Stay Inside and the other to Profiteer. In for a big prep this time. Ditto that and more for Nick Moraitis’ With Your Blessing. He has black-type miler/2000m horse written all over him. Stunning type. Legend Rules has drawn 12 here but it might be an advantage on the day if it gets soaked down there.

Bet: Arthur Francis to win, quinella 1,2

RACE 5

Sanstoc is a sister to ATC Derby winner Tavago so it is only natural that trainer Mark Newnham has her set on a path towards the ATC Oaks. She could, and probably will, be back at Kembla for the old Keith Nolan Classic and then the Knox, Vinery or whatever. Long story short, she could win the Oaks. Tiempe Passate was just about the best thing beaten in Australia in 2022 when she was runner-up at Hawkesbury. Big, strong and well-bred, she has a future in better races. Stormy Legend hasn’t done much wrong in his four starts and should be at his absolute peak now. Galactic Angel ran second in a strong maiden here at her only prior visit.

Bet: Sanstoc to win, exacta 12 to beat 13

Tom Sherry (pictured) will partner Sanstoc for Mark Newnham. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 6

Markwell/Latham here; Bully For You is a brother to last Saturday’s Highway winner, Golden Point. This particular gelding is a three-year-old who has raced five times for a win and a third. That third was at Newcastle on Feb 12 over 1200m and he hit the line like a horse eager for a step up in trip. Born A Warrior has only won once in 22 starts; that win was here and it was unforgettable - how he hasn’t gone on and won several more since is anyone’s guess. His record is a one-hundred per cent true reflection of his pattern. Just Tozza could be saved for that big Midway race at Newcastle on Thursday. He could win this or that depending on where he goes of course.

Bet: Bully For You to win

RACE 7

Character kicks off his ATC Derby campaign here, a race that he is presently quoted at $51 with the TAB to win. The grandson of Galileo with the 3x4 cross of Sadler’s Wells was runner-up in the Geelong Classic then beat seven of his 15 rivals home in the VRC Derby. Market the best guide. Dream Runner is a genuine racehorse; how else could you explain that he has won from 1200m to 1800m and placed in town over 2400m. Handles soft very well, has won fresh and is ‘one for one’ at Kembla. Local Aidenabet has been beautifully placed throughout by his trained Stephen Hill and is a last start winner. Fit horse.

Bet: Character to win, quinella 1,3, box trifecta 1,3,6,10

Originally published as Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Kembla Grange