Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Kembla Grange

A promising three-year-old from the Kim Waugh stable can make it two in-a-row while her two other runners will also be in the thick of things. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL

Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Kembla Grange.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

KEMBLA GRANGE

BEST BET

Race 6, No.3: CONRAD

He’s racing out of his age group here but is a young horse going places and saluted first-up in fine fashion when not getting the easiest of runs.

NEXT BEST

Race 5, No.8: PAPER DAISY

Sweet Ruby might be a touch vulnerable late and Paper Daisy might be able to take advantage of this for trainer Joe Pride.

VALUE BET

Race 8, No.5: BUBA

In an open race she might just be able to get the job done under favourable conditions. She goes well fresh and likes wet ground and 1400m at this point looks ideal.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 3, 4, 8

Race 6: 2

Race 7: 1, 2

Race 8: 2, 4, 5, 9

TRAINER TO WATCH

Kim Waugh only has three horses going around on Thursday but Sweet Ruby, Conrad and Buba could easily win their races and give her a winning treble.

Jason Collett has a solid book of rides at Kembla. Picture: Getty Images

JOCKEY TO WATCH

Jason Collett hasn’t ridden a lot of Thursday’s mounts but Enduring Night, Coppersonic, Paper Daisy and Stay are good hopes.

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR KEMBLA

RACE 1

Zudin had five weeks between runs before going down by half a length at Wyong a fortnight ago and that no doubt would’ve tightened him right up for this and the soft going won’t hurt as James McDonald sticks. The Guru was ridden more positive last time at Warwick Farm and it almost paid off. He’s back on his home track now where he’s won two from four and fitness won’t be an issue. Enduring Night drops back from a midweek race and before that finished a length and a half off Solar Apex at Gosford. She’ll be hitting the line late and getting out to 2000m should be fine. Kypreos is an outside chance of upsetting them.

Bet: Enduring Night to win

RACE 2

Lease raced in a Group 1 Champagne Stakes in April but has been in much lesser company this time in which is why he’s racing more competitively. He’s a good chance again here if he handles the wet track. On paper the wet form doesn’t look good but he’s run well enough in his two soft track efforts. Festival Dancer won well when leading over a mile at Goulburn last start and it was a good enough performance to suggest she can go on with it despite it being her first win at start 10. Sagrado hasn’t been running poorly and has won at this track before and Hugh Bowman knows him well. Coppersonic is the one on the up.

Bet: Sagrado to win

RACE 3

Russian Standard showed more than enough in two runs last preparation and has come out since an eight-week let up to win a barrier trial by nine lengths. He was trialled by Sam Clipperton who rides him again here from a good gate. Wheel wasn’t asked to do much in looking very comfortable in his barrier trial and he’s now a gelding and should race much better which makes him a winning chance. Savourer looks a nice type and being by Snitzel she should handle a wet track.

Bet: Quinella 2, 4

Kathy O'Hara rides Grand Palazzo for trainers Robert and Luke Price. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 4

Grand Palazzo ran right off the track last start at Moruya after starting slow and racing from the back of the field. Under the circumstances it was still a good result to run second. She does handle wet tracks and is placed well at her home track. She’s got to win one soon and with Miss Connie an unlikely starter it only helps her chances. Unyielding Spirit only had one run at her first preparation and it was a close sixth placing at Nowra. She trialled up great so Gwenda Markwell will be looking for a top run fresh. Crimson Rock is peaking for this run and gets the blinkers for the first time.

Bet: Grand Palazzo to win

RACE 5

Sweet Ruby was last seen in a Stakes race in May so this is naturally a good kick off point for her new preparation. She’s handled Soft track so far and the booking of Hugh Bowman is key and she’ll be hard to beat as long as the 1200m fresh on a testing track isn’t a touch too far. Paper Daisy won here on debut and should be racing positive after getting the widest gates at her previous two runs last time in when not disgraced. Burning Need is another fresh horse who is on the way up and should be very competitive at home. A tough race to judge.

Bet: Paper Daisy to win

RACE 6

Conrad didn’t get the best run in transit first-up at Hawkesbury but James McDonald just rode him like he was the best horse in the race which he clearly was and won with a bit in hand which bodes well for his second-up run which he won at last time in. Born A Warrior has looked the part in his trials against the likes of Eduardo and Splintex and only has to carry half a kilogram more than the three-year-old Conrad. Ka Bling comes into this off a confidence boosting win at Wyong but has drawn awkward and will need to slot in somewhere.

Bet: Exacta 3, 2

James McDonald (pictured) continues his association with Conrad. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 7

Greater Harlem probably goes back from a wide gate and getting out to 1500m on a long straight might just be enough for him to get the job done off a quicker back up. Stray has been racing in Stakes events for her past three runs so this is welcome relief and she gets the tongue tie on for the first time. She also ran three lengths off Paulele last time in so she’s got the class to be winning here. Sword Point finds an easier race now and the blinkers have been put on as has James McDonald so look for a better result.

Bet: Stray to win

RACE 8

Buba might be capping off a big day for Kim Waugh who she has he first run for after coming up from the Gerald Ryan/Sterling Alexiou yard. She loves wet tracks and looks ideally placed fresh over 1400m off a six-week break from barrier three with Hugh Bowman on. All Machiavellian was no match for them in the Gloaming but the previous form was great including a win over Head Legislator who is starting to put a few together. He’ll sit off the speed and look to come over the top of them late. El Lago can threaten them also.

Bet: Buba to win

Originally published as Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Kembla Grange