Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Hawkesbury

Smart trials have a New Zealand-bred gelding set for an Australian debut win for Tulloch Lodge. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL

Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott can land a double with For Valour and Cross Talk at Hawkesbury on Thursday. Picture: AAP Image

Daily Telegraph form analyst Matt Jones gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Hawkesbury.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

HAWKESBURY

BEST BET

Race 6, No.1: CROSS TALK

His win in New Zealand on debut was a ripper and he’s come to Australia and trialled up like he is ready to win here too.

NEXT BEST

Race 2, No.3: MR BURGUNDY

I loved his latest barrier trial and Will Freedman wouldn’t be bringing him to the provincials on debut unless he had a good opinion of him.

VALUE BET

Race 3, No.2: ETHERIDGE

You don’t normally tip horses that have run last in their past three starts if she can beat home Seduction Queen, I believe that means she wins and going up in trip suits her.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 1, 2, 5

Race 6: 1

Race 7: 1, 8

Race 8: 3, 8, 9

Trainer Brad Widdup has a couple of good chances at his home track on Thursday. Picture: AAP Image

TRAINER TO WATCH

Brad Widdup only has two horses running at his home track, Moon Reader and Sonic Tycoon, but both should present as good chances in the second and sixth races.

JOCKEY TO WATCH

Josh Parr rides his old mate Quackerjack in the feature race and can also win on Seduction Queen and Vyner.

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR HAWKESBURY

RACE 1

You’ve got to think Hypnosis will improve greatly off his third placing first-up off more than a year away from racing. More fitness brings him into this. First Peoples has trialled up in good fashion to indicate a good debut run for a new stable. Imperial Wolf had more than two years off and ran last at Goulburn, but he’s since come out and win a barrier trial in fine fashion at Rosehill and on that he’s a good chance in a race like this. Zohan was doing his best work late in his trial to suggest he’s primed for a good fresh 1100m effort.

Bet: First Peoples to win

RACE 2

Mr Burgundy trotted in a barrier trial in good enough time to suggest he’ll be running a good race on debut for an up-and-coming trainer in Will Freedman. Moon Reader ran quite well on debut at Newcastle when sent out over the odds and she’s a natural improver on her home track for her second-up run. Tales Of Conflict trialled up well enough without being sensational against First People who won so see how it goes in the opening race and that will give punters confidence or a lack of hope. No Statement will likely be on the speed and had run well enough here to be considered as a horse that takes bad luck out of the equation.

Bet: Mr Burgundy to win

RACE 3

Seduction Queen comes here again off a good win last start and she can be relied upon to run a nice race. She wasn’t far of winning on town two starts ago and off her last win she should be running out the 2100m. Microna can threaten here after running well enough in city grade last start and beat The Guru three starts back who won on Tuesday and he takes bad luck out of the equation. Ethridge drops in grade and will be much better second-up and over more ground and has to be the horse to back at double figure odds.

Bet: Exacta 2, 1

Jason Collett rides Etheridge for trainer John Thompson. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 4

For Valour ran second here a fortnight ago when sent out odds on. He was coming off a long spell and has previous good form in town so will no doubt attract support as an on the speed horse. Vyner is very fit for this and drops back 100m which probably isn’t a bad thing and is conditioned at a top stable and is improving this time in. Is this the day for Grand Palazzo? She’ll win one at some point. Sliders has had three trials ahead of his first-up run after nearly a year off and will be nice and forward for this.

Bet: Grand Palazzo each way

RACE 5

Daichi was spelled off a win which is always a good thing and he’s trained by a top team and wasn’t given a hard time at it when he trialled up so he looks like a horse ready to produce fresh. Quiet Riot is well placed here and can be forgiven for his fresh run and can be expected to produce a better result here. Colonel’s form isn’t that bad and gets back on to a firmer track now which he’s performed well on in the past. Major Murphy is a threat as an outsider.

Bet: Colonel to win

RACE 6

Cross Talk who very well at his only New Zealand start which was his debut and he’s trialled up well enough to suggest he can win at his first Australian start. He looks like a talent but it’s a fair enough field. La Tigresa is consistent but a bit of a non-winner. She’ll be there late if she runs up to her previous from. Sonic Tycoon has good fresh form and races on her new home track so expect a good run. Kung Fu Mushu is a tough horse who won here first-up and Tommy Berry sticks and they’ll go well again.

Bet: Cross Talk to win

Tim Clark rides For Valour and Cross Talk. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 7

Mark Newnham hasn’t entered Quackerjack in an easier Listed race than this. The Villiers winner is well placed to take this out if he runs near his best. He’s had some niggling issues in the past 10 months but is over them and comes into this off a pretty good fresh effort so expect a good performance. Wheelhouse is also very well placed with just 54kg, 5kg less than Quackerjack, and that could tell late. Looks Like Elvis always looks to be a horse that you want to back after seeing it’s last run but he just can’t win one. Reloaded and Polly Grey will attract support.

Bet: Quackerjack to win

RACE 8

Buba has drawn to get a soft run in behind the speed under top rider Tommy Berry so she gets every chance but needs another win or the punters will lose confidence, as will she. Free Rider has a pretty good record and if he brings his best, he’s right in it. Just A Jedi drops back from city racing and he’s been to Group 2 level in the past and even though he ran last a fortnight ago he wasn’t beaten far. Carolina Fire won here last start when leading and she stays at the same trip which won’t her chances of going back-to-back.

Bet: Just A Jedi to win

Originally published as Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Hawkesbury