Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Canterbury
Two very promising three-year-old fillies can continue their winning form at Canterbury.
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Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Canterbury.
The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!
CANTERBURY
BEST BET
Race 5, No.13: BLACK ON BEAUTY
Trialled like a good horse prior to her debut win at Newcastle 13-days ago. Pinged out, led, put a gap on them, eased down late.
NEXT BEST
Race 4, No.2: FINEPOINT
Pins filly who was $1.70 for good reason on the Kensington track last start. Won easily; progressive is the word for her.
VALUE BET
Race 3, No.9: STROMBOLI
Brother to Overreach and Standout who has shown above-average talent in his trials, especially that last one here.
QUADDIE
Race 5: 13
Race 6: 5,8,10
Race 7: 3,6,15
Race 8: 3,5,6
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
James McDonald has the ride on two potential stakes winners - namely Black On Beauty and Finepoint.
GOULBURN
BEST BET
Race 1, No.1: LAVA
Horlicks’ great grandson, Lava is ready to peak here fourth up at the 2100m on the proviso it’s not too wet.
NEXT BEST
Race 2, No.2: RIBEAUVILLE
Progressive Helmet son who is on his way now after that decisive first win at Hawkesbury.
LISMORE
BEST BET
Race 7, No.1: MAGIC CHARLEE
Locally trained galloper who has raced here twice for a huge win and a second. Last start winner who makes strong appeal.
NEXT BEST
Race 8, No.3: IN AWE OF ME
Matthew Dunn trained mare who has won two of her last three and has come up with gate 1 for this assignment.
THE INSIDE MAIL FOR CANTERBURY
RACE 1
Mamounia is a regally bred filly; her third dam is Alizes followed by La Baraka and Triscay no less. The James Cummings-trained filly is crying out for 1550m now after two closing runs to open the career over 1200m and 1400m. Ultimate Pride is another one who is suited by the longer trip. The Chris Waller-trained filly made ground at big odds ($31) to finish fifth in a strong maiden on the Kensington track last start. Flying Witness is from the all-conquering Annabel Neasham stable and caught the eye in that same race behind Kir Royal 14-days ago.
Bet: Mamounia to win, quinella 8,10
RACE 2
Argentado seemed to have her chance when runner-up here on debut late last month. The Godolphin-owned son of Lonhro was $2.40 into $2.15 that night on the score of some hugely impressive trials. Drawn one here - again. The barrier gods haven’t been nearly as kind to Carartie who was dealt the outside alley. Runner-up at four of her seven starts including one here two runs ago. Just needs luck early on in the piece. Costa De Oro is a racy type of filly by Pierro who has done everything right in her last trials, winning both, suggesting a bold debut is on the cards.
Bet: Argentado to win
RACE 3
Stromboli is one of the most interesting horses racing all night. Reason being is that he is a brother to the Golden Slipper winner, Overreach, as well as the Group 2 winner, Standout. The Team Hawkes-trained colt was super impressive when he won a 900m heat here on November 30. Boomsong was quite brave in defeat when he finished a close runner up in a Warwick Farm maiden on a Heavy 8 on December 1. Should be able to do as he likes from barrier 4. Mirror One has been trialling like a bomb ahead of this and should be strong late.
Bet: Stromboli to win, quinella 2,9, box trifecta 1,2,4,9
RACE 4
Finepoint is a terribly progressive filly by Pins out of the dual Group 2 winning Zabeel mare, Zarzuela. Was backed in from $1.85 into $1.70 on the Kensington track at her third career start and won accordingly, Has a bright future. Noble Beauty hasn’t put a foot wrong this (first) prep with two wins and two placings from her four appearances. Granted, this is a test of her mettle in city grade now but she arrives in great shape. Praisolite ran much better than her $21 starting price when beating all bar Titanium Power at Warwick Farm last start. Go well.
Bet: Finepoint to win, exacta 2 to beat 4
RACE 5
Black On Beauty was the best of good things when she made her debut at Newcastle. Fact is, you would not see a horse trial any better ahead of their first run than this half-sister to $1.4 million winner, Black On Gold. This is no slam dunk this time but everything about her says he will make the grade in the autumn. Humble Star is a worthy adversary given that he was unbeaten in his two starts at the first campaign including that debut win in the Star Kingdom at Muswellbrook where he beat Four Pillars winner, Kiss Sum. Kir Royale was utterly dominant winning two weeks ago on the Kenso.
Bet: Black On Beauty, box trifecta 13 (standout) to beat 6,8,9,10
RACE 6
Green Flash may never win back his $1 million purchase price but he is good enough to take this race out. The son of Redoute’s Choice has only won twice in his eight starts but importantly, one of those was here with Tommy Berry riding. Stablemate Karlstad has an awkward draw to contend with but maybe the plan will be to hustle him out the gates and lead if at all possible? My Demetra is ‘consistent without winning’, a fair assessment given that she has only won twice in 29 starts but has placed 15 times. Getting close now off that Niffler placing.
Bet: Green Flash to win
RACE 7
El Cohete wasn’t fancied first-up at Warwick Farm 16-days ago which is not surprising given his moderate fresh record. That’s moderate mind you not poor but compare that his second-up record of two wins and a second from three appearances and he certainly comes under consideration now at a favoured track and distance. He’s A Hotshot’s prospects, as always, rest solely with the state of the track. He has won five races - all on good rated tracks, as opposed to 14 losses on Soft/Heavy. In Lighten Me went very close to knocking off her lightly-raced and handy stablemate Bitcoin Baby second-up. Sharpe Hussler could be a value runner from the draw.
Bet: El Cohete to win, quinella 3.15
RACE 8
Titanium Power has ‘next time’ written all over him after that eye-catching return run behind his stablemate Dehorned Unicorn at Gosford on November 9. Sure enough, a few weeks later, Joe Pride found the perfect assignment for the son of So You Think at home and the horse (and rider) did the rest. Aslav was only a length and a half behind Titanium Power that day at Warwick Farm so doesn’t have to find a whole lot to turn the tables. Big watch on Main Stage who is the ‘system horse’ here, namely first-up out of a 2400m race. Market watch strongly advised.
Bet: Titanium Power to win, Main Stage to place
Originally published as Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Canterbury
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