Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Canterbury
A young colt from the Peter and Paul Snowden stable hasn’t had the best of luck to date but can show his true colours third-up. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL
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Daily Telegraph form analyst Matt Jones gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Canterbury.
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CANTERBURY
BEST BET
Race 1, No.3: STANDING ORDER
He didn’t get any luck last time in the Black Opal when held up for a run in the straight so put a line through the seventh placing. On debut he ran second to Williamsburg who won a Group 3 race on Saturday.
NEXT BEST
Race 4, No.10: DEVILS TRIANGLE
She drops 6kg off her last start second at Canberra and ran second two runs back against Shelby Sixtysix which has turned out to be super form. She’s loves wet tracks too.
VALUE BET
Race 5, No.10: FOURMADEC
She flew home from the back of the field to win at Canberra last time. Getting up to 1550m helps and, being be Kermadec, so should the heavy track which she races on for the first time.
QUADDIE
Race 5: 3, 8, 9, 10
Race 6: 5, 8, 9, 10
Race 7: 2, 7, 10, 12
Race 8: 2, 7, 8, 13
JOCKEY TO WATCH
Hugh Bowman is fresh off winning another Group 1 and he can have more success with Cadetship, Brechen and Gracilistyla who look like his best winning hopes.
TRAINER TO WATCH
Peter and Paul Snowden have genuine chances in all the races they’ve got horses in. Standing Order, Thousand Years, Vigorous Flow and Game Theory look well placed.
THE INSIDE MAIL FOR CANTERBURY
RACE 1
Standing Order got blocked for a run at a crucial point in the Black Opal so his seventh placing can be forgiven and at his debut ran a few earlier he ran second to Williamsburg who won a Group 3 last Saturday at Rosehill so the form is tops. Cadetship has shown enough in his trials to suggest he’ll run nicely on debut and the same can be said about Zou Tiger. Ferrari Man should be trying to cross them from a wide gate which isn’t’ hard to do from the 1200m Canterbury start. He’s already proven to be a tough horse and won’t give this away easy.
Bet: Standing Order to win
RACE 2
The Art Of Flying caught the eye when running for a nice third placing in a good race behind Overpass. He was a $61 chance on the day but should be a better horse for the run. Does he suit Canterbury though? This meeting was supposed to be a Warwick Farm before the rain came. Aircraftman is familiar with this track and handles wet tracks and peaks now third-up. Brechen appeared to enjoy the heavy going in his latest barrier trial which was encouraging. Hollywood North was a close second behind Gymnastics last time in what was his best run to date.
Bet: Brechen to win
RACE 3
Main Stage likes wet tracks and races on the speed and he’ll be fitter for the run last start when running second at Warwick Farm off a five-week break. He’ll be hard to get past in the straight. Reggiewood beat Main Stage last start and he too was off a little break and has had a barrier trial since that win eight weeks ago. Main Stage should be harder to beat now though. White Boots runs well here and at the trip but might want a frying track to be winning. Olympic Theatre likes getting his toe into the ground and is at his right trip at the right time of his prep to do well in town.
Bet: Main Stage to win
RACE 4
Switched will give a good sight on going that she enjoys and she’s raced very well at her past two and only got beat by a handy, progressive type four weeks ago. She’s been kept fresh for this and Nash will get the best out of her. Devil’s Triangle carries 8kg less and has Shelby Sixtysix form and thrives on heavy ground and gets an inside gate so there shouldn’t be any excuses as long as it doesn’t strike traffic problems. Park Avenue got pipped by a horse last time that went on and qualified for the Country Championships Final.
Bet: Devil’s Triangle to win
RACE 5
Fourmadec was an impressive winning at Canberra last start and had been super consistent to start her career. She is up in grade here but strikes a really wet track for the first time and being by Kermadec, it should play into her favour as an outsider. Thousand Years is much better suited to 1550m now off an eye-catching run last time and she’ll be sitting off the speed and flying home late. Kouklara keeps threatening without winning but these conditions might be what she needs to get the job done.
Bet: Fourmadec each way
RACE 6
Philipsburg has had a good preparation without winning and two runs back he ran second at this track and distance on a Heavy 10. The fact he goes up 0.5kg is the only difference and it shouldn’t matter much. Fantastic Baby just missed out first-up in a Midway and his record suggests he’ll improve off that for this run which puts him in the picture again. Whodat shoots for three-straight after winning his past two well as he loves running over a mile. He beat Field Legend fair and square last time but Field Legend was only second-up and he won here last time in third-up.
Bet: Whodat to win
RACE 7
Norwegian Bliss defends her undefeated record at start five and while she handles wet ground, she is first-up on a Heavy 10 which is always a query against race-fit horses. Gracilistyla is third-up off a win here three weeks ago on a Heavy 9 track and that gives him an advantage over the favourite and he’ll put himself into the race with Bowman on again. Petronius will give a good sight out in front in a race that’s not the hardest he’s been in. Stolen Jade won here off a month’s break and she’ll be even better suited now and loves the wet conditions.
Bet: Gracilistyla to win
RACE 8
Tough end to the day. I Am Brazen steps up in grade but is ready for it after thumping them at Goulburn by five and a half-lengths as an odds-on pop. She’s looking for three-straight and gets a cushy run in transit. Game Theory has a wide gate so Berry’s ride is key but he loves wet ground and has a turn of foot to match. Two of Calgary Queen’s three wins have been on heavy tracks and she’s won second-up in the past so she’ll race well as a fitter horse. Mr Magical has been kept fresh for this which is when he races best and he too is top wet tracker.
Bet: I Am Brazen to win
Originally published as Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Canterbury