Raceday focus: Best bets for Newcastle, Wagga
A Kris Lees-trained mare is set to peak third-up and book her spot in the Provincial-Midway Championships Final. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL
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Daily Telegraph form analyst Matt Jones gives his best bets and runs the rule over the Quaddie legs at Newcastle and Wagga.
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NEWCASTLE
BEST BET
Race 7, No.3: NEVER TALK
Kris Lees looks to have this horse primed to qualify for the Provincial/Midway Championships Final. She’s third-up off two good runs in better company and she’s already won at her home track.
NEXT BEST
Race 8, No.8: ENDORSEMENT
This horse should be even better up over 1400m after a gritty win on debit at 1200m when taking most of the straight to reel them in and he’s got the natural improvement on his side too.
QUADDIE
Race 6: 3, 7, 12
Race 7: 1, 3, 9, 11
Race 8: 3, 8, 14, 15
Race 9: 1, 8, 10
TRAINER TO WATCH
Kim Waugh could qualify Daphne Jean for the Provincial-Midway Championships Final and win the last race with either Bethencourt or White Boots.
JOCKEY TO WATCH
Nash Rawiller rides the well-bred Sammy in the main race while Whodat looks a top chance in the third as does Ferrari Man, Bethencourt and Kipsbay.
WAGGA
BEST BET
Race 3, No.4: ALMOST PERSUADED
She’s been on fire this time in with two wins and two seconds from four runs and she gets the dream draw to take advantage of and going back to 1000m should suit the speedy type.
THE INSIDE MAIL FOR NEWCASTLE
RACE 6
Comrade Rosa will probably race back from a wide gate so will need luck in the run but still looks well placed here by John O’Shea who puts Hugh Bowman on and he will have her fling home down the outside. We haven’t seen Divina for nearly a year after she won at Canterbury and prior to that she ran two lengths behind Group 1 winner Hilal so if the old Divina turns up, she’s going to find this very winnable under James McDonald from barrier two. Kipsbay got the run of the race here last time and took advantage of it to break through and win eased down which bodes well for going up in grade now.
Bet: Divina to win
RACE 7
Mayrose is a horse on the rise and will get back here from a wide gate but will come home hard like she did when winning last start and she will enjoy getting on to a drier track now. Never Talk has drawn much better and comes into this third-up off two solid runs in better company including a placing at Group 2 level a fortnight ago. Cristal Breeze won this series last year but gives away 3kg and 5kg to much of this field so it will be tough. Daphne Jean caught the eye in a similar race here three weeks ago and will again have the last crack at them.
Bet: Exacta 3, 9
RACE 8
Endorsement looks even better suited to 1400m now after winning over 1200m on debut. He beat a horse that has since come out and won and Hugh Bowman is on him again from a barrier that should allow him to be one off the fence with cover and in the perfect spot to make it two from two. Readily Availabull will find this easier after taking on the likes of Home Affairs, Converge and Paulele so far in his short career and he could be overs at around the $10 mark. Zaru has finally drawn a gate so he won’t have to get way back to last and run on like he has been at his past two.
Bet: Quinella 3, 8
RACE 9
Bethencourt loves soft ground and jumping up in trip shouldn’t hurt the grey who can handle a big weight and he’ll test them. Ocean Shores should be a bit better suited to the Kensington track after some top performances at Canterbury when running on late. He’s in the zone. Just A Jedi is an each-way hope while Main Stage won well here last time and he’ll be right on the speed and making them run well to get past him.
Bet: Ocean Shores to win
THE INSIDE MAIL FOR WAGGA
RACE 3
Almost Persuaded has been in good form since a nine-week let-up, having run no worse than second in four runs. She’s well placed again and gets the gun run from the barrier. Fifty Carats is a track specialist but probably needs a bit of rain to win. Carnival Miss ran 1 ½ lengths behind Landmine here last start at odds which is good form for this race. Loose Wire doesn’t win out of turn but is going pretty well. She’s just a bit suspect at 1000m. she will be vulnerable late based on what we’ve seen in the past.
Bet: Almost Persuaded to win
RACE 4
Street Cred likes to make his own luck and finds an easier race here after running second at this track and he loves this trip so he must be a top hope. Antigonus won at 2000m two runs back at Canberra and probably needed the run last start after having nearly a month off. He’s ready to fire again. Fox Beat has always been a tricky horse but when he puts it together, he’s a hard horse to beat at this level and he won at odds last time and has done it here before.
Bet: Antigonus to win
RACE 5
Al Murree is at 1600m off a six-week break which is interesting but she did show over 1300m last time that she was looking for more ground and she’s found a weak enough race. She’s had two barrier trials so should be fit enough for the mile. Common Request is here off two fair runs in country Victoria and that’s often good enough form to be successful here and he peaks third-up. Sham will sit off the speed and is favoured by 1600m now and has the last crack at them.
Bet: Al Murree to win
RACE 6
Is this the day for Mancconi? His past two runs have been his best to date and he’s knocking on the door after two close losses. He does have a wide gate but drops 3kg in weight and sits off the speed anyway. Patrika Mist draws the inside gate after coming out of barrier 10 on debut at Canberra where she run on well over 1000m. Up to 1200m from a better gate is very appealing for her. Siasha Jewel is on debut after producing a nice barrier trial and she looks like she’ll get over more ground soon.
Bet: Quinella 1, 6
Originally published as Raceday focus: Best bets for Newcastle, Wagga
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