Raceday focus: Best bets for Kensington

Kris Lees looks to have another nice import on his hands and a step up in grade and distance won’t be an issue. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL

Trainer Kris Lees has a promising import in Samoot who is out to make it two from two in Australia. Picture: Grant Guy

Daily Telegraph form analyst Matt Jones gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Kensington.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

KENSINGTON

BEST BET

Race 5, No.5: SAMOOT

She put them to the sword in devastating fashion at her Australia debut at Canterbury on a heavy track and she should handle this next assignment well.

NEXT BEST

Race 4, No.5: SAINT OF KATOWICE

He’s been going well without winning and his fourth placing last start was good considering he ran less than two lengths off the winner O’mudgee who is flying at the moment.

VALUE BET

Race 1, No.1: AUCKLAND

Going off his trials, if he was in a bigger stable, he would be half the price he’s set to go around at his debut. He should be box seating and get every hope.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 5, 6

Race 6: 1, 7, 8, 10

Race 7: 1, 3, 6

Race 8: 9, 10, 14

Trainer John O'Shea has good chances Ruinart and Cotehele. Picture: Grant Guy

TRAINER TO WATCH

John O’Shea is a good chance of training a winning double with Ruinart and Cotehele looking like good chances in the third and seventh races.

JOCKEY TO WATCH

Nash Rawiller rides Waterford in the second who is a very interesting running while Stalking, Bethencourt and Laurelin look like nice chances.

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR KENSINGTON

RACE 1

Hold On Honey looks to have returned a better horse than the one who disappointed the punters on a few occasions when sent out a well-supported horse in its three runs last time in. He trialled up well when cruising past Upgrades who is on debut here. The debutant I like is Auckland. He looked the part in his trial this time in, gets Hugh Bowman to ride him and could easily be another outsider that David Payne trains to a win. The punters underestimate him so often. Verbek is so consistent with five seconds from nine runs but hasn’t been able to win yet. He does handle wet ground though.

Bet: Exacta 3, 1

RACE 2

Navy Seal looked home on debut at Newcastle when getting pipped on the line on a Heavy track and should get the run of the race from the gate under McDonald and should be typical Waller improver here. Stablemate Waterford is the most interesting runner and the market likes him despite the fact he hasn’t been seen publicly in Australia. He ran six lengths third at his only run in Europe over 1408m. The betting leading up to the race will be something to watch. Nautical Miss ran above her odds when fourth on debut at Kembla Grange. She’s by Ocean Park to the heavy track shouldn’t bother her.

Bet: Navy Seal to win

RACE 3

Stalking took the short cut home first-up and ran into second at Kembla Grange. She’s going to enjoy getting up to 1550m now and even further than that later on. She should have the last crack at them. Ruinart will also lover getting out to 1550m and has the fitness edge on the Godolphin runner, being fourth-up off three-straight placings this time in. It’s time to win now. Nothing went right for Legal Choice in the straight last time when getting stuck in behind a wall of horses so she’s deserving of another chance. Shooting For Kate will be giving them something to chase.

Bet: Ruinart to win

James McDonald rides leading contenders Saint Of Katowice (race 4) and Ocean Shores (race 6). Picture: Getty Images

RACE 4

Gulf of Saros is the lightly-weighted horse on the up in this field and should give a huge sight out in front and coming back in trip shouldn’t be a bad thing for the colt who will be well rated by Tim Clark in a race he’s well-placed in. Vigorous Flow has to carry 6kg more than Gulf Of Saros but he too is suited to 1550m and has a second-up win to his name so look for a better run than his winning performance fresh at odds five weeks ago. The wet track is the concern. Saint Of Katowice does handle wet ground and was less than two lengths off O’mudgee last time and I think that’s top form for this race.

Bet: Saint Of Katowice to win

RACE 5

Samoot was super impressive at her Australian debut at Canterbury with a dominant win at Canterbury and she’ll be even better up in ground here. Very hard to beat. Old Flame trialled up pretty well ahead of his Australian debut and looks well placed here to do well. Watch the betting with Nikau Spur who hasn’t been seen since a last placing at Flemington in September but, a part from that, he’s a winner. Tampering wants more ground but does fly fresh and is a class above most of these.

Bet: Samoot to win

RACE 6

Bethancourt loves the wet and jumping up in trip shouldn’t hurt the grey who can handle a big weight and he’ll test them. Ocean Shores should be a bit better suited to the Kensington track after some top performances at Canterbury when running on late. He’s in the zone. Just A Jedi is an each-way hope while Main stage won well here last time and he’ll be right on the speed and making them run well to get past him.

Bet: Ocean Shores to win

Reece Jones partners Cotehele for trainer John O’Shea. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 7

Fleet Air Arm is going through the grades well and his only loss came last start but it was behind Remlaps Gem who is handy and the conditions suited it. He’s drawn to box seat and gets every chance under Bowman. Cotehele also gets a charmed run from the gate and he’s undefeated first-up and has been a Stakes performer in the past so he’s well placed to win here with a claim. Stoical kept his top fresh record gong with a win last time but he’s not as good second-up so be wary.

Bet: Cotehele to win

RACE 8

Six Again has had a bright start to her career having not run worse than second in four runs to date. She looked great in a barrier trial to suggest she’s returning from a spell an even better horse. The wide gate is a concern but she’ll push forward from it. Arranmore is also going about thing well and she’s second-up after running second at Canterbury on a Heavy 10 and she gets a good run in transit under McDonald. Hard to beat. Laurelin lost when odds on fresh but her jockey said she needed the run.

Bet: Quinella 9, 10

Originally published as Raceday focus: Best bets for Kensington