Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Warwick Farm

A Ciaron Maher and David Eustace-trained filly is ready return to town after a confidence boosting win last start. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL

Trainers Ciaron Maher (pictured) and David Eustace send Flower Moon back to town at Warwick Farm on Wednesday after a smart win last start. Picture: Getty Images

Daily Telegraph form analyst Matt Jones gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Warwick Farm.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

WARWICK FARM

BEST BET

Race 6, No.5: FLOWER MOON

She was sent back to country grade for a win and she got the job done in fine style, winning by a length eased up so she should measure up in town now.

NEXT BEST

Race 7, No.2: LEASE

Forget the last run when another horse annoyed the hell out of him on the speed. He’s back in grade searching for a win and he’s got the leading jockey on now.

VALUE BET

Race 2, No.8: VIREN

He’s another David Payne horse going around over here. He’s an each-way hope at $31 and is rock-hard fit for this and should handle the heavy.

QUADDIE

Race 4: 1, 7, 9

Race 5: 1, 3, 8, 9

Race 6: 2, 5, 6, 9

Race 7: 2, 4, 5, 11

Jason Collett can give the TAB Jockey Challenge a shake at Warwick Farm. Picture: Getty Images

JOCKEY TO WATCH

Jason Collett might be on a decent one in the opener at good value while Vientiane, Skyray, Flower Moon and Good Omens are all winning hopes later in the day.

TRAINER TO WATCH

Matthew Dunn might cause a couple of minor upsets with Ever Bella in the fourth and Atlantic King in the fifth.

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR WARWICK FARM

RACE 1

Miyoshi went better than the punters expected on debut here two weeks ago when second but it was on a Heavy 10 and it looked like she just went through the ground better than the rest so that performance must be a little suspect but she is on a wet track again which sways things back in her favour. Avoidance had a really good hit out at his latest barrier trial so he should be typically nice and forward for the Waterhouse/Bott yard. Aft Cabin looked the part in a barrier trial but has drawn wide which is never ideal. Avebury was well held together in a lead barrier trial and is by Savabeel so should handle the wet and might be a good value chance here.

Bet: Avebury each way

RACE 2

The Milkybar Kid will look to lead all the way here as the blinkers continue to do the trick for him. I’m always wary of backing front runners over 2000m and more. They get swamped more than they kick on and win, but he’s well placed here and should be in the finish. I’ll give Black Queen another chance here. She returned in great fashion but hasn’t been able to win from three subsequent runs which has been disappointing and she probably wants a drying track here. Viren is yet another David Payne horse who is over the odds. He doesn’t win out of turn but isn’t a $31 chance here with a good weight pull over the fancied chances.

Bet: Viren each way

Po Kare Kare can bounce back off a luckless tough run last start. Picture: Grant Guy

RACE 3

Vientiane didn’t get a lot favours in the run on debut and had to make a long run but handled it in fine style to win well on a bog track so she looks above average. Po Kare Kare is back off a forgettable day out at Randwick four weeks ago when trapped wide in the run. Look at the start before where she bolted in to be more confident about backing her. She trialled up nicely leading into this. Aeecee Express should put speed into this first-up as a gelding and his run in transit is what will give him a chance in the later stages.

Bet: Po Kare Kare to win

RACE 4

Arbitration was spelled after winning here in February and she’s coming into this fresh off a very comfortable trial win but does have the wide gate to deal with. She and James McDonald did win last time from gate 13. Bright Flight has a wide draw too but has the speed to take up a position and likes wet ground. Jayanthi is another with a wide gate but will likely take a sit and let the speed go. Hugh Bowman, who rode her into second last start, is the right man to have on in this situation. Ever Bella is the each-way hope here while Morioka finds this easier than last start.

Bet: Arbitration to win

RACE 5

Snitzonfire is a consistent type because he puts himself right into his races and has the right jockey on in Tim Clark who has ridden him both times this prep and he improved last time and must be peaking now third-up. He just beat Royal Banquet last time but Royal Banquet gets a 1.5kg pull at the weights now. Redwood Shadow will be better over a little more ground here and he’s never missed a placing second-up from three attempts. Travest has a senior rider on now from a cushy gate and if he can’t win this, when will he win again? Atlantic King goes much better second-up.

Bet: Travest to win

Travest looks well placed to break through for a deserved win. Picture: Grant Guy

RACE 6

Flower Moon was sent back to the bush for a kill and she got the job done in good fashion. She strode over the line to win by a length but had a lot left in hand which bodes well for this race up in grade. Is Lisdoonvarna going to upset them again at odds? She’s won three times at her home track. If Sunborn produces her best she wins but hasn’t been in great form. James McDonald on helps. Transplant gets the gun run in transit, possibly from the front, but is untested on a heavy track so she’s a query as favourite. Air Of Alsace looks well placed here third-up and she will enjoy the heavy track and Nash Rawiller is a key booking.

Bet: Flower Moon to win

RACE 7

Lease was scratched from the fifth race when drawing barrier one and is in this one out of gate 14 which is because they want to give him time to get into a rhythm and get across them. Forger the last run when he was terrorised by another horse which caused him to run poorly. He can bounce back. If So Sneeky relaxes better he’s a chance at odds on his home track where he generally performs well. Ocean Shores drops in grade and getting back up to a mile helps as does the booking of Hugh Bowman. Good Omens flew through the Heavy 10 to win at Goulburn last start and she too will take her time getting across from a bad gate. Her win last time however was from a cushy draw.

Bet: Lease to win

Originally published as Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Warwick Farm