Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Orange
A perfect draw can see a Gary Portelli-trained filly bounce back from a close second last start and break through for her maiden win. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL
SuperRacing
Don't miss out on the headlines from SuperRacing. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Daily Telegraph form analyst Matt Jones gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Orange.
The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!
ORANGE
BEST BET
Race 4, No.6: AMAZING NICCI
She raced here for the first time last start and would’ve won well with a better gate after having to race back and wide from a poor draw then storming home late. She now gets a good barrier.
NEXT BEST
Race 5, No.8: ALMAHERO
He ran third behind Manderboss and Loose Love last start and that’s good enough form for this race now. He’s placed well to improve his winning record.
VALUE BET
Race 3, No.8: IZFALLINGDOWN
She exploded late to win well with a bit in hand last start and while she’s been inconsistent in the early part of her career, her two best runs have been at this track.
QUADDIE
Race 5: 1, 2, 4, 8
Race 6: 3, 4, 6, 7
Race 7: 1, 2, 4, 8
Race 8: 1, 6, 11
JOCKEY TO WATCH
Grant Buckley will fancy his chances on Boongarra Girl, Denmiss, Toto and From The Bush in the Cup.
TRAINER TO WATCH
Bjorn Baker looking to take out the feature sprint with Quiet Riot who has trialled up great and the feature Cup with Shameonus, New World Tapestry and Ita.
THE INSIDE MAIL FOR ORANGE
RACE 1
Can Last Bid Liam keep the winning run going? The Shalaa colt shoots for three-straight here after winning the Wellington Boot Prelude in good style four weeks ago. He has weight to lug but it’s only a 1000m race. He has bush form while Inequality last race in a Stakes race at Eagle Farm and was only beaten by three lengths so he finds this easier and gets barrier one. Spinosaurus has had three spaced trials as he looks for the right first-up race and probably is trying to avoid the rain that’s been everywhere around Sydney. Speed Match missed the start on debut but ran on late to run third on a Heavy 9 over 900m so if he begins well, he obviously becomes a much better winning chance.
Bet: Inequality to win
RACE 2
Boonagarra Girl is looking for her first win at start 13 but she’s been racing well and gets a barrier that she needs to break through. A length of improvement and she can win because this is a very weak maiden race. Suomenlinna has drawn the carpark so he needs luck to slot in somewhere and get cover but I that happens he’s got the finish on him to strike and he ran second here two weeks ago from a wide draw. Rosie’s Gift will be back as an improved horse but will she handle a wet track if the rain arrives?
Bet: Boonagarra Girl to win
RACE 3
Soloist has drawn wide but there’s a long run to the first turn so he should be able to slot in somewhere and he looked like he was going to drop out of it here last start over 1280m before picking up late and looking like a horse that wants 1400m. Crazy Wolf also looks like he needs the little extra ground that he gets here and he has a second-up win at the provincials to his name and gets an easy run from barrier one but just needs to avoid getting too far back and stuck on the rail behind a wall of horses. Izfallingdown exploded late to win here and there’s no reason why she can’t do it again from a cushy gate and she likes this track and could present at good value.
Bet: Izfallingdown each way
RACE 4
Amazing Nicci would’ve won here with ease last start had she not drawn out wide and had to cover a heap of extra ground. That won’t be a problem from barrier one so if she just gets a clear run in the straight, she must be going close. Starane was in the same race and was drawn wide too and made a similar run but unfortunately for him he’s out wide again so the task is big but he’s going to take plenty out of that debut run. Marvellous drops back from provincial grade and has a good racing pattern.
Bet: Amazing Nicci to win
RACE 5
Almahero ran third behind a couple of in-from and fit horses last start and he can get an easy run in transit here and should be giving this a shake even though he was well beaten last time. The form is good. Obelos drops way back in grade off a good run last time but does give away 10kg to some of his rivals which makes it hard but he’s the class horse of the race and has won here. He just doesn’t want a heavy track. Denmiss gets a suck run in transit and should improve a lot off a 1460m run which came off a four-week break.
Bet: Almahero to win
RACE 6
I Am Capitan looks the value chance here. He’s nine now but trialled up nicely and has had a win and five seconds from eight first-up runs. He’s won at the track at his only attempt, has a good record at the trip and has been given barrier two. Quiet Riot has only won when produced fresh and he’s trialled up like he’s ready to do it again first-up. Proud Mia is a 1000m specialist and will be better for the run at Albury last time.
Bet: I Am Capitan each way
RACE 7
Hemmerle is in a rich vein of form at the moment and he’s racing like he’s going to enjoy 2100m now and is by a Melbourne Cup placegetter so he’s bred to get this trip. Favourite Ita is going well but has a wide gate and hasn’t won past 1600m yet. Fitness is high though so it’s a good time to test her here. Stablemate bolted in the cup prelude here last start and was full of running at the end of a mile. From The Bush has been running in the right races to be a force in this grade.
Bet: Hemmerle to win
RACE 8
Ferus bolted in last start when leading all the way and gets in with a winnable weight here and the awkward gate is the only thing stopping him from winning again. Whatsin is much better suited going up to 1300m now and gets in here well at the weights and has been given the right barrier to win. Super Helpful carries 4kg less than last start and is on a quick back up and has the right racing pattern to be in this for a long way and he want far off the winner in the Albury Guineas two runs back.
Bet: Super Helpful to win
Originally published as Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Orange
Newcastle Saturday tips and inside mail: Queen to reign
Form analyst Adam Sherry provides his best bets and race-by-race analysis at Newcastle on Saturday.
Newcastle preview: Home track has Doyle’s gelding set to Attack
Following a disappointing performance at Hawkesbury last start, Rush Attack is expected to rebound when he returns to familiar turf and drops in grade.