Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Kensington

Chris Waller may be in England at the moment but he has found the ideal race for a talented mare to kick off her campaign on a winning note. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL

Steel Diamond can kick off her campaign with a win at Kensington on Wednesday. Picture: AAP Image

Daily Telegraph form analyst Matt Jones gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Kensington.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

KENSINGTON

BEST BET

Race 7, No.3: STEEL DIAMOND

She looks well placed here to get back into the winner’s circle after a series of good runs without winning. She’s got a good fresh record and has the jockey and draw to win

NEXT BEST

Race 2, No.4: ESPRIT LUCAND

She’s good enough odds here for a horse that ran third on debut behind Emilia Romagna and Wingardium, who won well in town on Saturday. She gets a good run from gate two.

VALUE BET

Race 1, No 4: ENCROACHMENT

He should start at double figure odds and the wide gate can be overcome with gate speed. He’s had three barrier trials this time in and is ready to debut.

QUADDIE

Race 4: 2, 3, 5

Race 5: 7, 9, 10, 12

Race 6: 1, 3, 5, 8

Race 7: 1, 3, 4, 10

Trainer Bjorn Baker has strength in numbers and can land a double at Kensington on Wednesday. Picture: Getty Images

TRAINER TO WATCH

Bjorn Baker only has horses in two races but with three in the fifth and two in the sixth, he might win them both.

JOCKEY TO WATCH

Josh Parr will fancy his chances on Esprit Lucand, Sneaky Page and Calgary Queen.

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR KENSINGTON

RACE 1

Himalaism looked the part in his barrier trial and was sent out a $3 chance on debut late last year but ran into eventual Golden Slipper winner Fireburn. He’s got a good gate and Brenton Avdulla got to know him in her trial and should give him the run of the race. Viburnum didn’t show too much at his first two runs last prep but has come back to win both barrier trials and has a good gat with Hugh Bowman on who has trialled him on both occasions this time in and he has race experience which most here don’t. Encroachment should have the gate speed to cross them from a wide gate and he too looked great at the trials and the blinkers go straight on so expect a positive showing from the jump. He looks overs at $10.

Bet: Encroachment each way

RACE 2

Tashi has an awkward draw and showed in her latest trial that she can take sit and finish it off and she has a powerful team behind her. She’ll need some luck but might have the turn of foot to do well on debut. Tragara debuting in a Listed race earlier in the year but looks much better prepared for this. Nomara would’ve won with luck on debut after being trapped wide and then doing her best work late. Kerrin McEvoy goes on now and if she can find some cover in the run, she’ll give this a shake over what looks like a more suitable trip. Esprit Lucand didn’t get a lot of luck on debut but ran behind two handy types, one of which came out and won at Randwick in good fashion on Saturday so the form is sensational and she’s drawn well.

Bet: Esprit Lucand to win

Trainer Mark Newnham (left) and jockey Josh Parr combine with Esprit Lucand at Kensington. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 3

Chateaux Park gets back and often relies on some luck but he’s been in top form for a little while now and 1800m looks ideal after he ran on well over 1600m two weeks ago. Spanish Point has run into Irish Sequel and Comme Bella Fille of late which is tip top form and this is much easier and the good barrier and Hugh Bowman on can help get him back into form. Roman looks ready for 1800m now while Dinado has had a good grounding for 1800m now.

Bet: Chateaux Park to win

RACE 4

Segrill charged to a dominant win last start and before that ran in a couple of top form races including a win over Crazy Train and William Pike naturally sticks and she’s only fourth-up now. Propose A Toast ran second behind Segrill last time and wasn’t shirking the task in the closing stages and meets it 1.5kg better at the weights now so turning the tables is a possibility. Media Starguest was in the same race and didn’t threaten but the blinkers are off now. Microna will race on the speed and only got beaten by a handy type first-up and the rise in trip suits now.

Bet: Propose A Toast to win

RACE 5

A tough race to judge with so many promising types who have made winning starts to their career. Sneaky Page trialled up in front of the handy types Blesk and Jal Lei and has barrier two which gives her an advantage with her on-speed pattern. Shalstar looked the part in her trial too and the booking on Nash Rawiller is key. Incentive will likely go back from the wide gate and just needs to settle and get a good trail into it after smashing them first-up in country grade. The Rockwell Scale also won fresh and draws to sit outside the leader. This might set up well for a backmarker with all the speed up front.

Bet: Incentive to win

Louise Day will again partner Twice As Special at Kensington. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 6

He’s A Hotshot drops back in grade and will give a good sight from the front with the winkers off for the first time and he’ll appreciate the dry track. Twice As Special is also down in grade after running less than a length off the winner last time and before that ran well enough behind the in-form Washington Towers. She’s third-up now and ready to win. Quiet Riot is better suited back to the Sydney way of going. Monte Ditto snuck under the radar last start at Warwick Farm and has won at this circuit in the past so will attract support third-up.

Bet: Twice As Special to win

RACE 7

Steel Diamond looks well placed here and she races very well fresh and should be ready to let rip off two barrier trials with Hugh Bowman on board from an ideal gate. Calgary Queen missed the kick in a Midway two weeks ago so be forgiving for that 10th place finish and this race was always a plan after she drew wide for a race last Saturday at Randwick. Donna Scott doesn’t know why Gusonic ($8) and stablemate La Sante ($20) are so far a part in the market.

Bet: Steel Diamond to win

Originally published as Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Kensington