Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Kembla

A step up in distance looks ideal for a John Thompson-trained gelding to put on a winning display. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL

Trainer John Thompson has Deniliquin primed for the 2000m at Kembla on Thursday. Picture: Getty Images

Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Kembla.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

KEMBLA GRANGE

BEST BET

Race 1, No.3: DENILIQUIN

Been itching to get out to 2000m, which he is here, off two ripper runs over the mile to get him ready to strike.

NEXT BEST

Race 2, No.1: ARNOLD

Ran a huge race on debut back on December 22 when almost running down Pizarro at the midweeks.

VALUE BET

Race 4, No.10: AVEBURY

Savabeel filly from the John O’Shea camp who has a future in black-type races - and soon.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 6, 8

Race 6: 3, 4, 9

Race 7: 5, 8, 10, 15

Race 8: 1, 6

James McDonald has a good book of rides at Kembla on Thursday. Picture: Getty Images

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

James McDonald should go close to winning the TAB Jockeys Challenge if all his scheduled rides turn up on the day.

COFFS HARBOUR

BEST BET

Race 8, No.10: AUSTEJA

Won her three races (out of ten starts) by a combined margin of circa 11-lengths. Handy mare.

NEXT BEST

Race 1, No.6: LORD TROPICANA

London to a brick this one has a big chance in the Ken Howard Cup.

VALUE BET

Race 2, No.2: CROP DUSTER

Cleverly-named gelding out of North By Northwest (as in the movie); nice work last start.

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR KEMBLA

RACE 1

Deniliquin, a near replica of his Cox Plate winning father Adelaide ran a super race first-up over the mile at Goulburn on June 17. Was ninth of 16 in a Randwick Midway on July 9 but it was entirely the run of a horse that wants 2000m and here we go. Brynner is another one here, purpose built, and spot for a 2000m race. Ditto that for the Reliable man grey Count On Me who won’t get any fitter this prep. That is to say, he’ll be there for a long way. Piempurr should be prominent in the run.

Bet: Deniliquin to win

RACE 2

Arnold was a $280,000 Easter Yearling purchase and is a half-brother to Greysful Glamour. Trivia time, his fifth dam is the mother of George Moore’s English Derby winner, Royal Palace. Arnold is bred for a mile to 2400m and was outstanding on debut at the midweeks just before Xmas. American Pharoah filly Pavitra was $5 into $4.20 on debut at Goulburn and while she finished fifth, it was never her Grand Final and she will have taken benefit from the whole experience. Cairdeas will appreciate Kembla more than Wyong as a venue.

Bet: Arnold to win

RACE 3

Critical Time has always shown a bit. He was forced into a long break after the Dec 4 Midway in 2021 but he is back and clearly in great shape judging on his first-up second at Wyong on July 10. The Blake Ryan-trained galloper was $15 out to $26 that day which is a sign that improvement was to come. Hadouken, the close relation to Weekend Hussler, might well have won first-up had it been Newcastle, or dare we say Kembla, and not Gosford. Can win this. Nipotina, the Snitzel son of Nieta, won like a Group horse one day at Canterbury.

Bet: Critical Time to win, quinella 1,3, box trifecta 1,2,3,5

Jay Ford rides Critical Time at Kembla on Thursday. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 4

Avebury is a Waikato Stud-bred filly out of an O’Reilly mare then a Pins mare; probably why John O’Shea was $1.01 to buy her at the Magic Millions. He paid $200,000 for her and the way she trials, she would be cheap at twice the price. Might be pretty good this one. Shadow Raiders is first crop son of Impending and made up many lengths; that was 1100m, this 1200m and his father did win a Stradbroke remember. Could be wrong but feel sure that Always Tempted is better than her trials.

Bet: Avebury to win, Always Tempted to place

RACE 5

Soobooco is another one on this card that could be in big races this season. He was bred by Max Whitby who retained a share in the colt after Mark Minvervini bought him for $100,000 at the Magic Millions. It says it all that he debuted in the Todman (have to forgive the run) and that J Mac rides him here. Convincebility is trained here by the Queen of Kembla, Gwenda Markwell, and finished runner-up in a trial to the above-average Renosu. Pariah son Separatist has race fitness and race experience on his side.

Bet: Sobooco to win, exacta 8 to beat 6

RACE 6

Shocking Force is Clarry Conners-trained mare who has only won once in her 14 starts but she is never really far away and on top of that, there is some genuine depth to her form in any number of those maidens and Class 1s she has contested. Two things; her only win was first-up as she is here and she trialling like a bomb the other morning. Mentalism has all the ‘numbers’ for this - goes well fresh, loves it here. May want it softer than it might be on the day. Allusionist was the eye-catcher late in the piece first-up at Wyong.

Bet: Shocking Force to win

Winona Costin rides Shocking Force for trainer Clarry Conners. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 7

Antigonus is a son of Choisir out of the Frank Packer Plate winner, Dream Machine by Nothin’ Leica Dane which has delivered him the perfect mix of speed and stamina. That said, he is definitely a miler/2400m type from here on in but this is 1400m at home on fresh legs for the reigning Wagga Guineas winner. Weekend Affair turned nine on Monday but he is racing as well as he ever has. If every one of his 71 starts at the Kembla 1400m, he’d be a millionaire. Cyborg was $13 into $10 last start in town and ran accordingly.

Bet: Antigonus to win

RACE 8

Crime Spree is a very close genetic relative of Criterion but unlike him, I think I am right in saying that this is one Sebring who doesn’t like to get his feet wet. Given that Kembla could maybe get into Soft 5/Good 4 by this time of the day, there is a possibility that we get to see this barnstormer at his barnstorming best. Kokoro, the great grandson of world-renowned broodmare Coup de Folie, kicked off the new campaign with a confidence booster at Grafton on Cup Day. Remus is a capable type, so too Regal Pom.

Bet: Crime Spree to win

Originally published as Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Kembla