Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Hawkesbury

A progressive gelding from the astute Gwenda Markwell stable can make it back-to-back wins. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL

Trainer Gwenda Markwell has a promising horse in Lukey Luke who can go back-to-back at Hawkesbury. Picture: AAP Image

Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Hawkesbury.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

HAWKESBURY

BEST BET

Race 6, No.8: LUKEY LUKE

If he keeps taking these giant steps, who knows where he might end up. Really nice prospect this one.

NEXT BEST

Race 5, No.6: HOT DANCING

Lightly-raced local whose only win was here at home. Trial was much better than it reads.

VALUE BET

Race 3. No.9: CALM DOWN

Ron Quinton-trained Savabeel filly in the Waikato colours who shows signs of being handy beyond provincial standard.

QUADDIE

Race 4: 1,3,4

Race 5: 6,9

Race 6: 8

Race 7: 1,2,4

Josh Parr has a quality book of rides at Hawkesbury on Tuesday. Picture: Getty Images

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Josh Parr has a huge weekend coming up, think Duais, but could be the star of the show at Hawkesbury on Tuesday.

GRAFTON

BEST BET

Race 1, No.2: SUMMIT SPECIAL

Kris Lees-trained stayer on the up; big winner here last time on the Heavy 8. Can keep progressing.

NEXT BEST

Race 4, No.3: I AM GOOD AT THIS

Just missed at this venue first-up. Got herself going now with the ‘tree-change’

VALUE BET

Race 6, No.1: ENDANGERED SPECIES

Dominant in every sense here 9-days ago. Have to back him up while he is going this well.

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR HAWKESBURY

RACE 1

Assiduity was spelled after finishing third at Gosford at his second and final run of the first campaign. The Mark Newnham-trained son of Deep Field was a narrow runner-up in a recent trial at Randwick so looks ready to go. Drawn well. Rick’s Mania was $2.60 on debut here back in October. Long story short; he raced on the pace but faded late. Spelled, trialled well again and is well worth considering. Elusive Birdie has the fitness edge and the talent to win. Promise The Moon ran a grand race at Orange on debut.

Bet: Assiduity to win

RACE 2

California Lynx was sold for $900,000 at the 2019 Easter Yearling Sale. He is a son of Fastnet Rock out of a stakes-winning American mare. The Snowden-trained gelding appears to be a horse on an upward trajectory given that he is a last start winner. Suggesting the 1500m is ideal. Ditto that big time for Mandalorian from the Jason Coyle camp. Granted, he has only won once in 15 starts but he is a pattern/tempo/luck/good ride related horse. Za Ceibas is a market watch. The ‘best’ Light Up My World would ‘just win’ here.

Bet: California Lynx to win, Mandalorian to place, quinella 1,6

Trainer Ron Quinton prepares Calm Down. Picture: AAP Image

RACE 3

Calm Down is a sister to Savacool who won a Rowley Mile at this same track. This particular filly was retained by Waikato Stud and handed to Hall of Famer, Ron Quinton. Calm Down turned in two encouraging runs at her first prep and the two trials ahead of this are way better than they read on paper. Baranof is a 13-start maiden but has won $400,000 thanks to his second in the Millennium and he also has around the likes of Overpass and Mars Mission. Toesonthenose and Vaneto are both major contenders.

Bet: Calm Down to win, quinella 1,9

RACE 4

Captain Bond brings together the Trapeze Artist crew here and while it’s a bit early to be forecasting Group 1’s and Everests for this youngster, he surely has to be competitive at very least today off his trials. He is a beautifully actioned colt and you would expect he takes advantage of the draw. Compelling Truth is a stunningly well-bred colt who is well up to winning. Czar trialled exceedingly well at Rosehill last month. Vancouver’s Crown was the unlucky one on the Max Lees Classic on debut last summer.

Bet: Captain Bond to win

RACE 5

Hot Dancing is a Hobartville Stud-owned filly trained at Hawkesbury by Terry Croft. She was tipped out after a commendable first preparation in Sep/Oct last year which culminated in an impressive last to first win here with Rachel King up. She rode her in her trial which was way better than it looks on paper. Orange visitor Brief Statement absolutely deserves to be tried at provincial level. She has a neat little record already and has a pattern that is conducive to winning more than you lose. Ditto that for Selhurst Park who doesn’t have the rails draw this time like he has at his last two.

Bet: Hot Dancing to win, Daily Double 1st leg (6), 2nd leg (1)

Jockey Keagan Latham rides Lukey Luke for trainer Gwenda Markwell.

RACE 6

Lukey Luke could end up being a really good horse for Gwenda Markwell. He’s by Denman but he is lot more like his dam-sire, Nothin’ Leica Dane in that he is a massive horse who covers a lot of ground. Might be run 2000m? 2400m? That would open up a lot of doors for him. If you have the time, go and watch his last win - wow. Great Mystery was an emergency for the Adrian Knox last Saturday. Clarry Conners always said we wouldn’t see the best of her until she got to 2000m and as usual, he was right. Bill Peyto is headed in the right direction.

Bet: Lukey Luke to win

RACE 7

Derbari has only won twice in his 20 starts but a couple of points to make; one is that he has placed 10 times and two, he has raced at Hawkesbury twice for a win and a third. If anything, the son of Dundeel is better on Soft and Heavy tracks so the stars align for him today. Devil’s Throat has accepted for a race at Canterbury on Wednesday. He will be an obstacle for all others no matter where he goes. You can’t do any more than what This’lletheone did at his first prep namely two of the gutsiest wins you would see back-to-back, one of them beating Banana Queen, the other one was here beating Salsonic.

Bet: Derbari to win

Originally published as Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Hawkesbury