Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Warwick Farm

An exciting filly from the astute Team Hawkes barn is ready kick off her second campaign on a winning note. BEST BETS, INSIDE RAIL

Team Hawkes have exciting filly Petulant ready to return from a spell with a win at Warwick Farm on Wednesday. Picture: AAP Image

Daily Telegraph form analyst Matt Jones gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Warwick Farm.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

WARWICK FARM

BEST BET

Race 6, No.10: PETULANT

The Team Hawkes-trained filly will start short but deserves to be off her previous form and slashing barrier trial leading up to this. It’s hard to see her not winning if she brings her best.

NEXT BEST

Race 7, No.5: BALTIC COAST

He took his time to reel them in last time but was very strong through the line and he’s found a good race for his first go in town.

VALUE BET

Race 5, No.5: PARK AVENUE

If he can finish in front of Finepoint I think he can win this. The blinkers go back on and they tend to make him a better horse.

QUADDIE

Race 4: 3, 4, 5, 7

Race 5: 5, 7, 9

Race 6: 1, 9, 10

Race 7: 5, 11

Annabel Neasham can start the day off on a winning note. Picture: Grant Guy

TRAINER TO WATCH

Annabel Neasham will be disappointed if Regal Pom doesn’t win the first race while Never Second can end her day on a winning note in the sixth event.

JOCKEY TO WATCH

William Pike rides Capital Theatre in the second while Deep Romance looks a good chance in the fourth while Petulant is set to start odds on in the sixth.

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR WARWICK FARM

RACE 1

Lady Fraulein couldn’t have done more in her barrier trials leading up to her first-up run for a big stable. She should handle the wet track and has had three trials so must be nice and forward for this. Pretty Wild is a little filly but trialled up nicely last time and has the Waller/McDonald combination behind her. Regal Pom has the race experience behind him with six placings from nine starts. He can sprint well fresh before going up in ground but may run in the third race. Sawrey was nice and comfortable in his barrier trail and isn’t placed here not to be running a big race fresh.

Bet: Lady Fraulein to win

RACE 2

Operative wasn’t tested too much in his first barrier trial but came out in his second and won well so he’s prepped up to be a winning chance here. Kibou ran in a Breeders’ Plate on debut so there must have been a good opinion of him early on and he’s had a long spell and returned with two winning trials. He’s got a good gate and is a gelding now so should be returning a much better horse after tie back surgery and Regan Bayliss rode him in both trials. River Danzka gets a better gate now and Hugh Bowman sticks after he finished off nicely on debut when just getting pipped on the line in a $200,00 race on debut. The blinkers are now on Contemporary second-up and he’s run two lengths off the winner in the Kirkham Plate and Golden Gift in the past. Watch the betting.

Bet: Kibou to win

Kerrin McEvoy rides Concordia for trainer Les Bridge. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 3

Mystic Mermaid has been running on well enough and gets back up to a more suitable trip. Concordia was in the same race as Mystic Mermaid first-up and did get held up a touch in the straight before finishing off pretty well. Expect a much-improved horse second-up. Villeins was in that race too and beat them both home well but was third-up and the others should have more improvement now but he did beat them home easily so is still a chance.

Bet: Concordia to win

RACE 4

Deep Romance just got held up a bit at the top of the straight last start on the Kensington track. It wasn’t for long but it didn’t help and she was surging through the line over the final 50m and she should get the dream run in transit and the wet track won’t bother her. Bella Rouge wasn’t disgraced when second to Mirra View first-up and the third placed horse was four lengths behind her. Von Trapp has been in much tougher races than this all her career so she might be the value at $20 but is suspect on a heavy track. Showtime Lady won a Midway last time and beat Budhwar which is good form and Camino Real is knocking on the door. This is a tough race.

Bet: Deep Romance to win

RACE 5

Finepoint hasn’t run a poor race to date and would’ve taken plenty out of her third placing first-up behind a rock-hard fit Ita. Natural improvement off that makes her a formidable opponent here. Tough to beat. Park Avenue got back into the winners’ circle last start and the blinkers make this horse a few lengths better and the jockey is super keen on him here. Revivalist won with a bit in hand last time at Newcastle as a gelding so he’s come back a different horse. He was sent to and Up And Coming Stakes last year so there’s talent in him. Look for improvement from King Of The Castle at his second Australian run.

Bet: Park Avenue to win

William Pike rides Petulant for Team Hawkes. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 6

Petulant has already built a good reputation and is first-up here at start four after two very impressive wins at the provincials and her lead up barrier trial suggest she’s come back even better. Curtis Island gets conditions to suit and will put himself into this race and should be in it for a long while at good enough odds. Never Second rarely runs poorly and the booking of James McDonald is a big boost and she loves wet ground and has won two from three second-up so she must be a threat. Sneaky Page goes super first-up and has finished top three on each heavy track run to date.

Bet: Exacta 10, 9

RACE 7

Baltic Coast has been kept at a mile after winning over the trip at Scone three weeks ago. He’s not finished worse than second in four runs to date. He took all of the straight to catch them last time but was at his best on the line. He’s well placed here without a stand out rival. Chateaux Park won here two starts back over 1600m and he needs luck with his racing pattern but if he gets clear air, he can run on better than most of these. Glamour Fox is better second-up but wants the track to dry out a little bit on the day. Karlstad hasn’t raced on heavy ground yet but is by Sacred Falls so he should swim and Hugh Bowman possibly rides him forward from the wide gate.

Bet: Baltic Coast to win

Originally published as Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Warwick Farm