Newcastle tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
Ron Dufficy and Ray Thomas are both confident Love Tap will appreciate a drop in grade from the Golden Eagle and can find winning form.
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The Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances at the 10-race The Hunter meeting at Newcastle on Saturday.
SUGGESTED BETS
DUFF’S BEST
Race 5, No.1: LOVE TAP
BEST VALUE
Race 1, No.2: LAST BID LIAM
RAY’S BEST
Race 6, No.1: SHARED AMBITION
NEXT BEST
Race 5, No.1: LOVE TAP
VALUE BET
Race 10, No.7: PANDANO
R1: MAX LEES CLASSIC (900M)
Ron Dufficy: Anything goes here. I’m intrigued by Last Bid Liam. I loved his trial in mid-September when he could have beaten a horse that ran fourth in the Breeders Plate. Last Bid Liam looks sharp and I’ll go with him. Vancouver’s Crown went to the line unextended in his trial and in a fast-run race he could be the strongest late. Lord Of The Hunter has had race experience and he trialled brilliantly on a wet track prior to his debut. Uncorked looked talented at the trials when she won quite nicely after covering ground.
Ray Thomas: Uncorked did look good winning that Randwick trial. She’s a well-bred type by Pierro and looks a ready-made racehorse. Lord Of The Hunter was narrowly beaten as an odds-on favourite on debut but rates highly. I also have Vancouver’s Crown in the mix for the reasons you mentioned, Ronnie. Matisse’s Comet shaped well in a recent trial and can run a race at odds.
R2: BENCHMARK 78 HCP (1600M)
Dufficy: With the expected rain, Cisco Bay could be over the odds. He’s had a freshen up, loves the jar out of the ground and will be minding his own business from barrier one. Ma And Pa is the danger. He keeps lifting the bar and gets the job done. He’s up 3kg on his last start win but he will be hard to beat again. Prince Of Arragon did enough first-up in the Goulburn Cup and will improve going to the mile. Sacred Kingdom was unlucky in an easier race at Canterbury last start and although up in class here he does drop in weight.
Thomas: Ma And Pa has reeled off four successive wins and was very strong scoring in similar grade at Rosehill last start. He is creeping up in the weights now but he is still the one to beat. Sacred Command is still trying to get out from the pocket he found himself at Canterbury and can run well. Cisco Bay is never far away this grade and Zegalo can sprint well fresh.
R3: TAB HIGHWAY (1300M)
Dufficy: Another wide, open Highway but I feel Casino Kid ticks most boxes. He is as honest as they come, the extra distance suits and with the claim for Reece Jones he stands out to me. Street Power is the danger. He ran an enormous race sitting four deep with no cover last start and was very brave in defeat. He did win his maiden on a heavy track by a big space. Ceasefire is a nice horse and had support in The Kosciuszko then backed up with a good second in a Highway last start. His hoof is on the till. Shelby Sixtysix has taken a while to come right but he was unlucky last start and has hit form now.
Thomas: I’m also in Casino Kid’s corner. He’s shaped well at both runs this spring and this race sets up nicely for him. Casino Kid never runs a bad race and will be in the finish. Ceasefire is working up to a win and does look hard to beat here. Shelby Sixtysix is working his way back into form and Raoul is going to get the right run from his good draw.
R4: BENCHMARK 72 HCP (1600M)
Dufficy: Cream Rises is a talented horse. He seemed to be off the boil in his first two runs back but caught the eye charging home in the Four Pillars. Nash Rawiller sticks with Cream Rises and he should be hard to hold out. Harvey’s Way looks promising and has attracted good early support. He is a horse with upside. Caesars Palace has come up well this preparation and I want to be forgiving of his run last start when he was wide throughout the race. Tampering is a good, honest on-pace type and will be in the finish.
Thomas: Ladies Gem can run a race at odds. He’s a tough campaigner who saves his best for rain-affected tracks. He has been racing well of late, he gets in well at the weights and is drawn to get the right run. Tampering races on speed, his Four Pillars run was very good and he will be in this for a long way. Cream Rises is fitter for recent racing and this race suits. Harvey’s Way looks promising and has to be included among the main chances.
R5: BENCHMARK 88 HCP (1850M)
Dufficy: Love Tap has the form through the Golden Eagle which shapes right up to this class of race. I’m saying he should win. Lord Armore showed improvement third-up when he won well and he is capable of another competitive run. Mightybeel got too far back in the Lord Ardmore race, he had excuses that day and should be given another chance. Shibli has done a good job with wins at three of his last four starts and he won’t be far away again.
Thomas: This does look the right race for Love Tap. He had not raced for five weeks before the Golden Eagle where he ran an even race. He will find this much easier and the extra distance is what he needs now. Milk Man has never been going better and Mightybeel is another in top form. Shibli is another racing in very good form.
R6: THE BEAUFORD (2300M)
Dufficy: I’m with Kiss The Bride. He is going great, likes it soft, and although he meets Shared Ambition 3.5kg worse at the weights, I liked the way he finished off last start. Shared Ambition is the weight horse. He has had a few tough runs but he has the right form out of the right races. King’s Charisma was hard in the market in the Hotham Handicap and that form might be good enough. Hush Writer doesn’t like it soft but was heavily supported in the Tatts Cup when he went out too hard in front. He gets a picnic in front here.
Thomas: I’ve gone the other way with Shared Ambition to beat Kiss The Bride. Shared Ambition does looks well in after the claim and his form all spring has been solid. He will appreciate getting out to 2300m and this is his chance. Kiss The Bride beat home Shared Ambition when they clashed last start. The weight turnaround is in Shared Ambition’s favour but Kiss The Bride will be hard to beat. King’s Charisma is a strong stayer and Torrens has held his form over an extended campaign.
R7: SPRING STAKES (1600M)
Dufficy: This is the hardest race of the day, Ray. I’m intrigued where Festival Dancer has found this form. She has looked a different horse reeling off three successive wins. She defeated Lease two starts back then put paid to them by a big margin last start. She makes her own luck in running and is flying at the moment. War Eternal was wide all the way last start and can improve. He has terrific soft track form and is by far the best longshot. Loch Eagle is still a maiden but is a nice horse with talent and James McDonald is a positive booking. Contributingfactor is trained on the track, looks a progressive type and is hard to oppose him.
Thomas: Festival Dancer is in a rich vein of form deserving of her opportunity at this level. She seems to be getting better with racing, handles all track conditions and I feel she is up to the challenge. Dufresne beat all but Kiss Sum in the Four Pillars and is suited here back against his own age. Loch Eagle and Kokoro are both lightly raced but obviously promising types and should run well.
R8: THE HUNTER (1300M)
Dufficy: Trainers have now got their heads around The Hunter and it has become a proper race. I think I’m brainwashed with Top Ranked. I know he is a huge query and is hard to rate but in that Canterbury jumpout he looked very slick. The market place is gravitating to him and says he is ready to win. Lost And Running is the danger. Obviously, he has the right formlines through The Everest and he should stride across with no problem really. I’m not game to tip Kementari but he has a terrific chance. He has been in two slowly run races that haven’t suited him but this will be run at a fast tempo and he is ready to run well. His best wins have been on soft tracks, too. Wandabaa is on the back-up with blinkers on and on her home track she is one at a big odds.
Thomas: Lost And Running has continued to improve with every run this spring and gets his chance in The Hunter. He ran a super race when fourth in The Everest then backed that up with a very brave second to Eduardo in the Classique Legend Stakes. The wide barrier is an issue but with even luck in running he will go close. Top Ranked has been working brilliantly and is right in this race. If first emergency Criaderas gets a run, he will be charging home. Bandersnatch likes rain-affected conditions and his trial earlier in the week was impressive.
R9: BENCHMARK 78 HCP (1400M)
Dufficy: Fashchanel ran an improved race last week when she went to the front and was only beaten two lengths in the Group 2 Hot Danish Stakes which is good credentials for this class of race. With the claim, she has beaten the handicapper. Norwegian Bliss is unbeaten in three starts, she has a nice racing style and handles all track conditions. Grand Rumore wasn’t herself last start but has gone back to the trials and looked the part. The big query is Tinker McPhee who resumes with James McDonald after winning a trial.
Thomas: Norwegian Bliss has looked very good in her three starts. This is her big test but she will put herself into the right position and prove hard to beat. Grande Rumore is a talented mare and her recent trial suggested she is ready to run a big race here. Barossa Rosa comes off a very good effort in the Four Pillars and Zou De Moon is an improving mare set to run a competitive race.
R10: BENCHMARK 88 HCP (1300M)
Dufficy: This is a good race with lots of value. I have to tip Gravina. You could say he was disappointing last start but I feel the key to him is having the jar out of the track which he gets here. From the good draw I have to give him another chance. There are a couple of good longshots in this race including Pandano who races well on his home track and the soft track suits. Katalin is a talented mare who was great winning first-up and just needs a drying track to run well again.
Thomas: I’m with Pandano. He was never on the track at Randwick last start when ninth behind Quantico at his second run back but he is set to run a much-improved race at big odds. Talented horse when right and is over the odds. Gravina has been costly this spring but is bursting to win a race. Surreal Step is another over the odds and Katalin will be hard to beat.
SATURDAY EXTRA
BEST BETS WITH SHAYNE O’CASS
KEMBLA GRANGE
BEST BET
Race 1, No.5: PETULANT
Team Hawkes trained filly by Starspangledbanner who arrives here for the debut off the back of two impressive trial wins, one in May, the other at Rosehill on October 22. Has talent.
NEXT BEST
Race 2, No.5: QUATENUS
Daughter of Godolphin ‘s own Nivison winner Quidnunc, this daughter of Exceed And Excel has raced twice; winning her only run here and was second on a Heavy 10 at Wyong before that.
VALUE BET
Race 7, No.12: CHILKO LAKE
Vancouver filly from the Steve Englebrecht yard who is building up to her first win at start four. Closed off at all three before this and ready to strike at 1500m now.
QUADDIE
Race 5: 4,7
Race 6: 1,2,9
Race 7: 6,12,13,15
Race 8: 3,9,12
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
Blake Spriggs has a good book of rides at a very wet Kembla Grange racetrack including one on the old muddie himself, Hypernicus.
GUNDAGAI
BEST BET
Race 6, No.5: DEVINE MISS
Could not have been any more impressive winning first-up on the Heavy track at Cootamundra. Eased down late and ready to keep progressing.
NEXT BEST
Race 3 No. 5: BUBBLER
Sent out some encouraging signs at his first run for the new trainer (Gary Colvin) when closing off from the back to run fifth over 1200m when resuming; 1400m here.
VALUE BET
Race 5 No.4: GOTTALUVTRUCKS
Has the beautiful platform to step out to 1800m. Very fit and while he doesn’t win too often, he is nearly always thereabouts.
BATHURST
BEST BET
Race 6, No.2: DE FORERUNNER
Locally trained gelding who has barely put a foot wrong in his three starts, particularly this campaign which saw him win at Forbes on October 9 followed up a second by at Dubbo in a C1 three weeks later.
NEXT BEST
Race 2, No.2: ZARIZ RAIDER
Clint Lundholm trained son of Zariz who has been beaten a combined total of 14 lengths at his last two runs but they were in much stronger races than he contests here.
VALUE BET
Race 5, No.9: CHLOEBELLA ROSA
Only won once in her 32 starts but she has placed seven times, most significant of all is that she ran second here as recently as two starts ago on October 15. Gets her big chance to raise her win tally now.
Originally published as Newcastle tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
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