Inside Mail and The Judgement: Expects give their final word on Royal Randwick
Tough Godolphin sprinter, Trekking, is ready for the fight when he lines up for his third TAB Everest.
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Godolphin’s James Cummings can rely on stable warhorse Trekking to produce his usual competitive effort in the $15 million The TAB Everest (1200m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
Trekking has finished third and fourth in the last two Everests and is going into the big race in top form after close thirds in the Concorde Stakes and Moir Stakes this spring.
“He’s a proper horse, Trekking,” Cummings said. “He epitomises what it’s like to be a great Australian sprinter.
“Don’t forget he represented us in the Golden Slipper as a two-year-old and he’s trained on now to be a multiple Group 1 winner and he’s lining up for his third crack at The Everest.
“He was really brave in two attempts at the race already and it tells us he copes with pressure.”
Godolphin has its own Everest slot and only confirmed Trekking as their runner earlier this week.
“I think he’s going well enough third-up with the (Group 1) Moir (placing) next to his name, it’s good enough form for him to be a competitive chance,” Cummings said.
“He is the type of horse who is better on firm ground and that would be desirable, but that’s not going to happen.”
The Randwick track surface was rated a heavy 8 late yesterday with some showers possible overnight.
THE BEST BARRIERS
The best barriers at Royal Randwick for the past 3 years (in order of wins)
1100m: 5,3,4,7
1200m: 7,1,6,8
1400m: 6,2,1,5
1600m: 4,3,7,2
2000m: 2,1,7,5
2600m: 10,1,3,6
THE BIG BETS AND MARKET MOVERS
Race 1: Ventura Ocean $13-$7 with bets of $500 e/w at $12/$3.40, $300/$200 e/w at $12/$3.80 twice, $2,000 at $3 place, Visinari $13-$7.50 after bets of $1,000 e/w at $9/$3.10, $2,500 e/w at $7.50/$2.70, $500 at $7.50, Fox Fighter $7-$6.50
Race 2: Looks Like Elvis $11-$10, High Supremacy $3.50-$2.70-$2.15 with bets of $1,750 at $3.50, $500 at $3.50, $500 at $3.30, $476 at $3.10, $1,000 at $2.90, $1,000 at $2.70, $800 at $2.70, $1,000 at $2.50, $1,000 at $2.25
Race 3: Ahead Start $3.30-$3.10-$3.20 including a $2,000 wager at $3.10, Blitzar $23-$18
Race 4: Decent Raine $8-$7-$6.50 with bets of $500 at $8, $1,000 e/w at $7/$2.40, Wolves $51-$81-$71 after bets of $1,000 e/w at $81/$16, $1,000 e/w at $71/$14, I Am Me $101-$21 with a $400 bet at $31
Race 5: Handle The Truth $4.60-$4.40, Art Cadeau $8-$6-$6.50 with a $500 bet at $6.50, Sunrise Ruby $15 unchanged despite a wager of $300/$100 e/w at $15/$4.20, Irish Songs $81-$41
Race 6: Kementari $5-$6-$4.20 with bets of $350 at $6, $500 at $5 twice, Signore Fox $4-$4.40 after bets of $1,000 at $4.40, $500 at $4 twice, Big Parade $4.50-$3.70 with bets of $500 at $4, $500 at $3.70, Prime Candidate $51-$14
Race 7: Nature Strip $4.50-$4.20-$4.60-$4.20-$3.60 after heavy support including bets of $2,000 at $4.50, $6,000 at $4.40, $2,050 at $4.20, $2,000/$3,000 e/w at $4.20/$1.70, $2,000 at $4, $1,250 at $4, $1,000 at $4 multiple times, Classique Legend $4-$4.20-$4-$4.20-$4.80 has eased despite some big bets including $1,500 at $4.20, $1,000 at $4.20 multiple times, $525 at $4.20, $500 at $4.20 multiple times, $1,000 at $4, Eduardo $8-$6-$6.50 after bets of $1,000 at $8, $1,000 at $7, $1,000 e/w at $6/$2.10, $1,000 at $6, Gytrash $9-$7.50 with bets of $1,875 at $8, $1,500 at $8, $1,000 at $8, $750 at $8, $500 at $8 twice, $1,000 at $7.50, Masked Crusader $7-$10 with a bet of $500 e/w at $9/$2.70, Wild Ruler $26-$51-$41, Home Affairs $11-$9-$9.50-$10-$11 after bets of $500 at $11 twice, $400 at $11, $500 at $9 twice.
Race 8: Think It Over $2-$2.30, Keiai Nautique $11-$8, Sky Lab $41-$15-$14, Bargain $41-$26
Race 9: Entente $3.80-$4-$3.80-$3.70 after bets of $500 at $4, $500 at $3.90, $1,000 at $3.80, Warning $19-$14-$10, Carif $19-$13-$11, Purrfect Deal $19-$11-$10
Race 10: Equation $6-$4.20-$2.70 has been heavily backed with bets of $400 at $6, $300 e/w at $5/$1.90, $840 at $4.80, $600 e/w at $4.60/$1.80, $300 e/w at $4.40/$1.75, Promise Of Success $2.40-$2.80
EARLY QUADDIE
Race 3: 2,4,7,9
Race 4: 1,3,5
Race 5: 1,3,7,10
Race 6: 1,5,6,11
QUADDIE
Race 7: 1,2,3,6
Race 8: 1,3,10,11
Race 9: 1,2,5,8
Race 10: 1,3,7
PRICE CHECK
Nature Strip (race 7) has been sensationally backed to win The Everest. As much as $4.80 was bet about him earlier in the week but punters have rallied behind the Chris Waller-trained sprinter who is now into $3.60 favouritism after some huge bets including $2,000 at $4.50, $6,000 at $4.40, $2,050 at $4.20, $2,000/$3,000 e/w at $4.20/$1.70, $2,000 at $4 and $1,250 at $4.
TRIAL POINTERS
Visinari (race 1) is a French-import trained by Sam Kavanagh who arrived here with six starts on his record, all of them in England beginning with a debut win at Newmarket over 1207m. The son of Dark Angel won a trial at Scone 12 days prior to his fourth in the Spring Cup at Tamworth coming from second to last of the 11 runners to finish within two and a half lengths of Edit, who will go around as one of the main fancies in the Kosciuszko today. As for Visinari, he was super impressive winning another Scone heat, this time beating Kosciuszko contender Ceasefire.
Eduardo (race 7) is the Joe Pride-trained sprinter running in the Arrowfield-Star slot in the $15 million The TAB Everest. The chestnut son of Chilean sire, Host, beat Everest rivals Nature Strip and Gytrash in the Group 2 The Shorts on September 18 and has clearly gone ahead since. That much was plain when Pride’s star sizzled in his 735m heat win at Randwick eight days ago clocking 43.50 seconds with a 33.34s last 600m.
SECTIONAL STARS
Edit (race 5) will take a power of beating in The Kosciuszko. The son of Oakleigh Plate winner Swiss Ace was bred in New Zealand by Gerry Harvey who is represented in the TAB The Everest by his own bonny mare Libertini. As for Edit, this Australian Bloodstock acquisition staked his Kosciuszko claims with a stunning last to first win in the Spring Cup at his new home base at Tamworth. Should get every opportunity in the $1.3 million race with Hugh Bowman in the saddle.
Luncies (race 9) looks ready to peak when he contests the $500,000 ATC St Leger Stakes, a race that was first run in 1841. The Kris Lees-trained grey has shown improvement in each of his four runs this spring including an eye-catching fourth in his hometown Newcastle Cup on September 17. Luncies subsequent outing was in the Metropolitan where he was as strong to the line as any other horse in 2400m Group 1 sending out all the right signs that he will relish the opportunity to get out to 2600m in Saturday’s rich stamina test.
BEST BET
Art Cadeau (race 3) is as genuine as they come – 11 starts for five wins and six seconds. He’s a terrific sprinter because he invariably does everything right, putting himself up on speed, taking bad luck out of the equation. Expect something similar in The Kosciuszko as Art Cadeau is ideally drawn in barrier three, he will race on speed, he’s unbeaten at Randwick and is very effective on soft or heavy tracks.
VALUE BET
Masked Crusader (race 7) has got out to double figure odds for The Everest but he seems to have had the perfect preparation and is right in this race. He has a thundering finish as he demonstrated winning the Premiere Stakes last start and he handles soft-heavy tracks. Masked Crusader is great value in a wide-open Everest.
THE JUDGMENT
R7: The Everest (1200m)
Paul Joice (Sky Thoroughbred Central): “Masked Crusader will relish a pressure-packed 1200m around Randwick and can storm over top of them. 1200m form reads (6:5-1-0). Eduardo is a real fighter and makes his own luck on speed. Soft track stats read (6:5-0-1). Classique Legend cannot be overlooked. Freak sprinter.”
Glenn Munsie (Sky Sports Radio): “Classique Legend easily accounted for half the field here last year but has only started once since in Hong Kong. Trialled three times to be ready for this and has exceptional fresh form along with the fact a Soft track is of no concern. Only has to be near last year’s effort to beat these. Gytrash the danger.”
Grant Palmer (bookie): “I have gone with Eduardo on top. He was disappointing last year but I think Joe Pride will have learnt from that and Nash Rawiller sticks with him. Nature Strip is only an inch behind him with Gytrash not far off the pair. The Inferno could add some value to the exotics.”
Michael Sullivan (bookie): “Market will take on Classique Legend, representing a chance to back who I think is best horse in race at a good price. Trust the trainer to have him right. Nature Strip easily best backed with us early.”
Andrew Georgiou (TAB): “Nature Strip has been sensationally backed into clear favouritism after peaking at $4.60. Classique Legend is still my on topper while Gytrash is an each-way play.”
Verdict: Nature Strip
R8: Craven Plate (2000m)
Paul Joice (Sky Thoroughbred Central): “Think It Over continues to race at the top level. Has tactical speed in a race lacking pace and can win again. Shared Ambition to dominate from the front and only just missed behind Think It Over last start. Hungry Heart needs an improving track to figure.”
Glenn Munsie (Sky Sports Radio): “Was very keen on Shared Ambition last start when going down narrowly to Think It Over and don’t think there’s anything between them again for this. Price differential will always sway me so preference is for Shared Ambition in a race which will mirror how the Hill Stakes was run.”
Grant Palmer (bookie): “The favourite Think It Over has been slightly easy since the market opened but we have seen strong support for Sky Lab who opened at $23 earlier in the week. I was very surprised at the price on offer for Yonkers and think he represents excellent each way value at the $26 mark.”
Michael Sullivan (bookie): “Against Think It Over. Race looks to have a stack of genuine improvers. Of those, Bargain interests me greatly. Was good in restricted room late in the Angst and will jump out of the ground out to 2000m.”
Andrew Georgiou (TAB): “Think It Over is the logical pick, however, I am tempted to speck Best Of Days at the big price. Has a decent record at the track/distance so double figures is very tempting.”
Verdict: Think It Over
CAULFIELD
R9: Caulfield Cup (2400m)
Paul Joice (Sky Thoroughbred Central): “Montefilia was strongest late to win the Metropolitan and can carry that form into the Caulfield Cup. Good value. Incentivise is super tough. The wide gate will force him to do some work but hard to tip against him. She’s Ideel is massive overs, especially if the track is wet.”
Glenn Munsie (Sky Sports Radio): “Favourites draw the carpark but hasn’t really improved the opposition’s chances. Delphi was dynamic last Saturday and drops in weight here. Love them doing this on an upward spiral. Only concern is the track conditions with rain predicted. Stablemates The Chosen One and Quick Thinker are roughies.”
Grant Palmer (bookie): “The favourite Incentivise has drawn the carpark but I don’t think it will matter too much with his bold front running style. He should be able to find the front and he looks very hard to run down. I thought The Chosen One looked the best value outside of the favourite but he won’t want it too wet.”
Michael Sullivan (bookie): “Have to take on the favourite. The Chosen One, Delphi and Nonconformist have all had great preparations and look set to peak on the day. Would be working around them at double figure odds.”
Andrew Georgiou (TAB): “Incentivise should win if it gets an even amount of luck. Duais is the one I fancy for value. Handles all conditions and drops 6kg from the Coongy win.”
Verdict: Incentivise
Originally published as Inside Mail and The Judgement: Expects give their final word on Royal Randwick
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