Inside Mail and The Judgement: Expects give their final word on Randwick

Having already won the Epsom and Flight Stakes this season, jockey Regan Bayliss is keen to add another Randwick Mile feature to his tally in Saturday’s Villiers Stakes.

Brutality can give jockey Regan Bayliss a third Randwick mile feature win on Saturday. Picture: Grant Guy

Talented young jockey Regan Bayliss is aiming for his third feature Royal Randwick mile win of the season on Brutality in the Group 2 $750,000 Villiers Stakes (1600m) on Saturday.

Bayliss had a career-best spring carnival that included Group 1 wins over the Randwick 1600m course on Private Eye in the Epsom Handicap and Never Been Kissed in the Flight Stakes on October 2.

Private Eye was trained by Joe Pride and Bayliss is linking with the stable again when he partners Brutality in the Villiers.

“I think Brutality is a great chance,” Bayliss said.

Regan Bayliss isn’t concerned by Brutality’s wide gate in the Villiers. Picture: Getty Images

“He has backed up three times in three weeks before and been successful, and I thought his last start effort was great as he stuck to his task well over the last 100m.

“For the Villiers, he goes to the mile, Randwick will suit him, and he drops massively in weight (7.5kg to 53kg).”

Bayliss maintains Brutality’s wide barrier (13) is an advantage as it will ensure the gelding stays out of trouble and can build momentum from the 600m. 

“With a little bit more rain, it will only enhance his chances,” Bayliss added.

THE BEST BARRIERS

The best barriers at Royal Randwick for the last 3 years (in order of wins)

1000m: 5,3,2,4

1100m: 5,3,4,7

1200m: 7,6,1,8

1400m: 2,6,9,3

1600m: 4,3,6,2

2400m: 1,2,4,3

THE BIG BETS AND MARKET MOVERS

Race 1: Miss Ostend $4.40-$3 including bets of $500 at $4, $800 at $3.80, $500 at $3.80, $1,200 at $3.60, $400 at $3.30

Race 2: Media Starguest $4.60-$4-$3.90 with bets of $500 e/w at $4.60/$1.95, $400 at $4, Remus $15-$11-$10

Race 3: Dragonstone $2.80-$2.90-$2.80-$2.30 with bets of $1,177 at $2.90, $3,000 at $2.80, $1,300 at $2.80, $1,100 at $2.80, $1,000 at $2.80 multiple times, $556 at $2.80 twice, $500 at $2.80 multiple times, Bacchanalia $3.50-$3.10-$3.30 with bets of $400 at $3.50, $2,000 at $3.30

Race 4: Herman Hesse $3.70-$2.50-$2.40 with bets of $800 at $3.70, $430 at $3.50, $1,000 at $3.10, $527 at $2.90, $1,000 at $2.80, $1,200 at $2.70, $500 at $2.70, $625 at $2.60, $1,200 at $2.50, King’s Charisma $8-$8.50-$7

Race 5: Boldinho $2.60-$2.50 with bets of $500 at $2.60 twice, $400 at $2.60, $1,000 at $2.50

Race 6: Incredulous Dream $6.50-$4.60-$4.80 with bets of $400 at $6.50, $600 at $5.50, Irish Angel $4-$3.40 with bets of $1,729 at $3.80, $822 at $3.50

Race 7: Eleven Eleven $4.80-$4.20-$3.90 with bets of $1,500 at $4.80, $750 at $4.40, $1,250 at $4.20, Dawn Passage $21-$16, Dream Circle $9.50-$8-$8.50, Snapdancer $3.70-$4.60

Race 8: Criaderas $15-$12-$13, Steely $6-$4.80-$4.60 with bets of $432 at $6, $500 at $4.80, $400 at $4.80, Brutality $11-$8.50-$9 with bets of $450/$300 e/w at $11/$3.70, $500 at $9.50, Kirwans Lane $26-$16-$13 with bets of $500 at $26, $1,000 e/w at $23/$7, $400 at $16

Race 9: Mubariz $10-$7.50 with a bet of $400 at $9, Equation $10-$6-$5 (with a bet of $550 at $7.50

Race 10: Brookspire $4.20-$2.90-$2.70 with bets of $800 at $4, $500 at $3.80, $850 at $3.60, $500 at $3.40, $1,000 at $3.30, $500 at $3.10, $500 at $3 multiple times, $440 at $3, $750 at $2.90, $500 at $2.90 twice, $1,200 at $2.80, $9,500 at $2.70

Eleven Eleven has been a firmer in Race 7 at Randwick. Picture: Getty Images

EARLY QUADDIE

Race 3: 2,4,8,9

Race 4: 1,4,8
Race 5: 1,2,4,9

Race 6: 3,4,6,9

QUADDIE

Race 7: 1,10

Race 8: 6,8,14,15

Race 9: 3,8,9,13

Race 10: 4,5,6,8

PRICE CHECK

Dragonstone (race 3) and Brookspire (race 10) have been the best backed runners on the Randwick program. Dragonstone has firmed from $2.80 to $2.30 with some big bets including $3,000 at $2.80 and a number of $1,000 bets at $2.80.

Brookspire (race 10) has been sensationally backed from $4.20 to $2.70 after some huge bets including $1,200 at $2.80 and $9,500 at $2.70.

TRIAL POINTERS

Glint Of Silver (race 5) was sold for $130,000 at the Inglis Classic Yearling Sale. The Matthew Dunn-trained colt is a grey coloured son of Yes Yes Yes‘s sire Rubick out of a Lonhro daughter of Group 2 Magic Night Stakes winner, Mardi’s Magic. Dunn’s Inglis Nursery hopeful did everything right when winning his only public trial at Warwick Farm on December 2. Glint Of Silver stalked the leader throughout before levelling up half way up the straight and forging clear thereafter. Has to overcome a wide draw but looks to have talent.

Loveplanet (race 10) is trained by Chris Waller who has achieved a high level of success with the progeny of Cox Plate winner, Ocean Park. This New Zealand-bred gelding has won three of his seven starts; those three wins came at his second, third and fourth starts - at Yarra Valley (by six lengths), Moonee Valley and Sandown. Loveplanet has visited Royal Randwick twice and placed each time. He looked the part when a close-up and unhurried fifth in a recent Canterbury trial. 

Irish Angel was impressive winning first-up and can make it two in-a-row. Picture: Getty Images

SECTIONAL STARS

Irish Angel (race 6) was beautifully set-up to win first-up at Rosehill two weeks ago given her preferred soggy conditions, her excellent fresh record and a first class ride by Jason Collett. The Chris Waller-trained daughter of Not A Single Doubt put her rivals away with a high degree of authority suggesting that she has come back in great order this time in. Her closing splits were compelling particularly in light of the fact that she looked so comfortable in the run to the line. Just has to bring that form to Randwick on Saturday bearing in mind she is unplaced in both runs at this track.

Eleven Eleven (race 7) has come back in fabulous shape this preparation after a somewhat lacklustre previous campaign (by his standards). He kicked off with an eye-catching fourth in the Choisir Handicap at Royal Randwick then resurfaced at Kembla 18 days later, charging home from the tail to win the inaugural $300,000 The Warra thanks to some superior final splits. While the son of Fastnet Rock boasts some compelling stats across the board; his record at Randwick is a concern - five starts for no placings. That said, he could easily remedy the situation in today‘s Razor Sharp.

BEST BET

Snapdancer (race 7) is a talented mare resuming and is very effective fresh. She was dynamic winning at the Villiers meeting last year over the Randwick 1200m course, stopping the clock at a stunning 1m 7.67s. Readied for her return with three recent barrier trials, Snapdancer looks very well placed although she has never raced on soft or heavy ground. However, her recent trials have been on wet tracks and she has handled them well. Worth the gamble around $4.60.

VALUE BET

Criaderas (race 8) ran third in the Villiers Stakes last year as favourite and lines up as a $12 chance in the big race today. He settle at the back of the field but when he winds up, he does have a powerful finishing surge. Randwick is his favourite track, he enjoys rain-affected conditions and he’s down on the limit weights. Expect him to be charging home late and at $12, he’s a good each way chance.

THE JUDGEMENT

Race 5: Inglis Nursery (1000m)

Paul Joice (Sky Thoroughbred Central): “Boldinho was very brave when runner-up on debut in Listed grade. That form should prove strongest and has drawn ideally. El Padrino flashed home on debut and can only improve.”

Richard Haynes (Sky Sports Radio): “I saw enough from Calgary Stampede at his recent Rosehill debut to suggest he’s hard to beat here at good odds. Boldinho was excellent on debut in the Merson Cooper Stakes and will get all the favours from the good barrier.”

Grant Palmer (bookie): “I have Gai and Adrian’s colt Athletica on top. He led and won well on debut and he should be able to take control and set the tone here. Boldinho was game on debut behind Ebhaar and is next best.”

Michael Sullivan (bookie): “Not sure there are any stars here but I’ll be laying Boldinho. Comes out of the strongest form reference but looks awfully short up to Sydney for the first time on a rain affected track.”

Andrew Georgiou (TAB): “Boldinho looked good on debut and punters have flocked towards him in this.”

Verdict: Boldinho

Boldinho (left) finished a good second to exciting filly Ebhaar on debut in the Merson Cooper Stakes and can go one better in the Inglis Nursery at Randwick.

Race 7: Razor Sharp Hcp (1200m)

Paul Joice (Sky Thoroughbred Central): “Vulpine is flying at present and is the one to catch. Loves it heavy and gets in light. Southern Lad struggled on the very heavy going last time but anything slightly better and he can bounce back. Snapdancer a big query first-up.”

Richard Haynes (Sky Sports Radio): “The more I look at this race, the more I think Brad Widdup’s mare Vulpine is going to be extremely hard to catch again. With the prospect of another heavy track, and still down on 54kg, she might just repeat the dose. Eleven Eleven is the obvious danger, he was terrific first up.”

Grant Palmer (bookie): “Snapdancer has had three trials in preparation for this race and is a clear top pick for me. Loves 1200m and has won this track/trip before. Eleven Eleven is the class runner but it’s interesting to note he has never placed at Randwick in 5 attempts.”

Michael Sullivan (bookie): “Edison was a much better run than it appeared the other day. Think he’ll be ridden more prominently here and can do something at double figures. Dream Circle was fantastic first-up and will charge late. Snapdancer continues to trial well.”

Andrew Georgiou (TAB): “Eleven Eleven has attracted good support early and is twice as popular as anything else.”

Verdict: Vulpine

Race 8: Villiers Stakes (1600m)

Paul Joice (Sky Thoroughbred Central): “Steely hits the race at the perfect time. Still on the up, gets in light, runs out a strong mile and has drawn ideally. Brutality has been set for this and will be peaking. Wet track a huge bonus. Ellsberg to keep them honest again.”

Richard Haynes (Sky Sports Radio): “The Villiers Stakes has eluded trainer Joe Pride thus far, but Stockman has a sense of timing about him and can take the prize back to Warwick Farm. Gerald Ryan and Sterling Alexiou saddle up two great chances in Ellsberg and Steely, the latter in super form, down in the weights, and loves a wet track.”

Michael Sullivan (bookie): “I’m keen on Kirwan’s Lane’s chances. He flies 2nd up, loves the Randwick mile, and this looks a real target with the freshen up to help him.”

Andrew Georgiou (TAB): “Punters are going for value here with Kirwan’s Lane more than halving its initial quote and Stockman being tried at each way odds.”

Verdict: Kirwan’s Lane

Originally published as Inside Mail and The Judgement: Expects give their final word on Randwick