Season preview: Can Nathan Buckley’s Collingwood put aside its off-field turmoil to return to AFL premiership contention?
Collingwood has barely been out of the news since last season ended and face an early on-field acid test this year. Will they sink or swim?
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No-one quite knows what to expect from Collingwood this season, given the off-field turmoil, Eddie McGuire’s exit, last year’s Adam Treloar-led salary cap slashing and heavy investment in the draft, then Graham Wright’s return as football boss.
The best 22 still looks pretty good on paper, but can the Magpies finally win a premiership to ensure Nathan Buckley keeps his job?
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Marc McGowan’s six key figures to define the club in 2021:
NATHAN BUCKLEY
Shapes as a huge year ahead for Bucks, who’s out of contract at season’s end.
The Pies probably need to exceed expectations to dull the outside noise and convince the internal decision-makers to extend his tenure beyond a decade.
Won’t have his greatest supporter, Eddie McGuire, behind him for this call after the president’s recent resignation.
Buckley’s always been a strong media performer, so he’ll have little problem handling that impending heat.
However, ladder position, player development and the success he has with his forward and midfield groups will have a greater say in his contract fortunes.
SCOTT PENDLEBURY
The all-time great will continue his record-setting stint as captain this season, which will be his eighth at the helm.
Not only will Pendlebury be a pivotal player again, but his stabilising leadership will be crucial, given coach Nathan Buckley’s uncertain future, the off-season personnel changes and the investigation which found the Magpies have a history of systemic racism.
Those issues will only multiply and be more highly focused upon if Collingwood struggles on-field, so the six-times All-Australian midfielder will do his utmost to keep the club in finals contention.
NED GUY
No list manager was in the public eye more than Guy in the last AFL Trade Period, given the Magpies’ much-analysed salary cap slashing.
That saw them part ways with the likes of Adam Treloar, Jaidyn Stephenson and Tom Phillips.
A spate of retirements, including sorting out the Dayne Beams situation, opened further space.
Guy felt coverage of the club’s salary cap situation was “a beat-up” and they did get to invest strongly in last year’s draft as a result of the clean-out.
How that draft crop works out will be a fascinating subplot to this.
GRAHAM WRIGHT
Geoff Walsh’s post-season retirement as Collingwood’s head of football left big shoes to fill, but in Wright they’ve hit the jackpot.
The Hawks will be devastated to lose him.
Wright is an outstanding operator who isn’t afraid to make big calls but will also help stabilise things in a period of tumult for the black and white.
Adding to his appeal is his strong list management background.
BRODIE GRUNDY
Adam Treloar’s exit means the Pies aren’t quite as deep in the midfield as they once were, something they were seemingly OK with to shed salary cap space.
However, a return to form for Grundy will be a Godsend for Collingwood, after he was a long way short last year of his All-Australian standard of 2018 and 2019.
Not only is Grundy capable of giving his onballers an armchair ride with his tapwork, but his agility for his height means he can effectively play as an extra midfielder.
JEREMY HOWE
The Collingwood defence is the least of the club’s issues, with Howe, Darcy Moore and Brayden Maynard spearheading a superb back end.
At the same time, Howe’s season-ending knee surgery in the middle of last year certainly changed the dynamic.
Jack Madgen filled in admirably, but Howe’s aerial ability, elite reading of the play and sure skills make him one of the game’s top defenders.
BEST 22 FOR ROUND 1
B: Jeremy Howe, Jordan Roughead, Brayden Maynard
HB: Jack Crisp, Darcy Moore, Isaac Quaynor
C: John Noble, Scott Pendlebury, Josh Daicos
HF: Will Hoskin-Elliott, Brody Mihocek, Steele Sidebottom
F: Jamie Elliott, Mason Cox, Josh Thomas
R: Brodie Grundy, Taylor Adams, Jordan De Goey
Int: Callum Brown, Chris Mayne, Tyler Brown, Oliver Henry
INS & OUTS
Ins: Isaac Chugg, Jack Ginnivan, Oliver Henry, Finlay Macrae, Beau McCreery, Reef McInnes, Liam McMahon, Caleb Poulter
Outs: Flynn Appleby (delisted), Dayne Beams (retired), Atu Bosenavulagi (North Melbourne), Tim Broomhead (delisted), Lynden Dunn (retired), Tom Langdon (retired), Tom Phillips (Hawthorn), Ben Reid (retired), Matthew Scharenberg (delisted), Jaidyn Stephenson (North Melbourne), Adam Treloar (Western Bulldogs), Travis Varcoe (retired), Rupert Wills (delisted)
CHAMPION DATA
The good: The Pies’ defence held up well, conceded the fifth-fewest points of any side last year. They also conceded a score from just 39 per cent of opposition teams’ inside 50s against them, ranked seventh.
The bad: The Magpies ranked a lowly 16th at generating a score once they pierced the inside 50 arc, and were just 17th at recording a mark from a kick going inside 50.
AFTER SIX ROUNDS
Three wins, three losses
Round 1: v Western Bulldogs (MCG) – L
Round 2: v Carlton (MCG) – W
Round 3: v Brisbane (Gabba) – L
R4 v GWS (MCG) – W
Round 5: v West Coast (Optus) – L
R6 v Essendon (MCG) – W
The Magpies’ best 22 still looks good on paper, so they’ll expect to beat the Giants and Bombers.
This record depends on them pinching one of the clashes with the Bulldogs or Blues.
However, it’s a tough opening stretch that could go in various directions and may determine where Collingwood’s season heads.
EXPECTED FINISH
6th to 12th
The top four looks beyond the Pies and it’d be a major shock to see them dip as far as the bottom four, but they’re in that unpredictable middle bunch.
Much will depend on injuries (or lack thereof) and the development of their younger brigade, such as Isaac Quaynor, Will Kelly, John Noble, the Browns, Callum and Tyler, and top pick Oliver Henry.
ROBBO’S LIKES AND DISLIKES
Herald Sun chief football writer Mark Robinson tackles the Pies.
LIKES
What will transpire at the Pies this year? They have the nucleus, but maybe not all the answers and/or personnel.
This time last year we wrote about an unfit Jordan De Goey, but that’s not the case this year, which is welcome news.
He is the key to their forward line.
Brody Mihocek (25) and Mason Cox (14) were the leading goalkickers last year. Mihocek is solid and Cox hit and miss, and the F50 was a major headache. What changes this year?
Jeremy Howe returns – perhaps be bold and send him forward.
The midfield remains strong. Brodie Grundy will flourish being out of hotel lockdown. Josh Daicos on a wing will be better again.
They lost eight games last year, five by fewer than 16 points.
They have pluck, the Pies, but need to improve the workings forward of centre.
DISLIKES
Poor management led to change in the off‑season.
They dumped regular senior players because of salary cap issues and went big at the draft.
It creates depth concerns. Would be surprised if the blood‑letting affects the players though.
There will be headlines about Nathan Buckley being in the final year of his contract and that might affect the players more.
If losses accumulate, so will the headlines.
And with Eddie McGuire falling on his sword, the intrigue off‑field will be a separate storyline.
On the field, they were competitive until the last game last year, but not sure they will suit up as competitive this season.
VERDICT
Ninth.
BURNING QUESTIONS ANSWERED
Herald Sun chief football writer Mark Robinson joins Fox Footy experts Nick Riewoldt, David King, Leigh Montagna and Jordan Lewis to give their Collingwood predictions for 2021.
ROBBO: When you have such a tumultuous end to the 2020 season, are there any remnants that last into the next year? Are they starting behind the eight ball or is it all in the past and are they forging ahead?
KINGY: I think it’s going to be a huge year and this is the start of a rebuild. I think they’ve got to the end and they’ve maximised that last wave, and that group for now needs to take a bit of a back seat and get the next group in the door. Clearly they’ve gone back to the draft, letting go who they let go late last year. The salary cap maxed out. What that means for Buckley will be the talking point of 2021. They went from nine wins to nine and a half wins, to a grand final, to a prelim to this year just getting into the eight and winning against the odds in Perth. Where does that leave you? Are you going up or down? I think they’ve made the decision they need to go back to go forward again, and they want to do it as quickly as they can.
ROOEY: Have they made that decision by design or has mismanagement led them to that realisation that they had no choice but to make that decision?
KINGY: If you get to a grand final and you’re 90 seconds from winning it, I think there are flow-on effects after that. You max out your salary cap, you may have one or two more opportunities and then at some point you’ve got to cut the cord. Pendlebury and Sidebottom are 33 and 30, so time’s ticking. Do you give them another chance? That’s probably what they’re doing.
JOEY: I personally think distractions are overrated among players at football clubs and players move on pretty quick. I think the pressure will come if they start losing and Kingy summed it up really well. There’s going to be a lot of talk about Collingwood in 2021, so how’s that going to impact the team?
KINGY: There’s no way you can let the players that they did walk out the door and say you’re still full tilt for a premiership. No way.
JORDAN: I’m a little bit glass half full on Collingwood. I think in terms of what happened in the off-season, the transparency with us wasn’t great. If the transparency is the same in what they did publicly to what they did inside the club, that’ll rip them apart and that will be evident in the first half of the season. If they have been transparent with the players, I think you can move on quickly as a playing group. I’d be surprised if they didn’t play finals and I don’t think they’re near the rebuild stage.
KINGY: The problem they’ve got is the most important Magpie this year is who they don’t want to be the most important Magpie, and that’s Jordan De Goey. He is everything to them forward of centre and when he goes in as a strike midfielder, he’s unbelievable. Since 2018 no one has kicked more goals at Collingwood than him and they don’t want that to be the case. If he fails, I think they fail.
ROBBO: Verdict, Joey?
JOEY: Fringe top eight, I have them just outside.
ROOEY: Sixth to 10th.
JORDAN: I’m six to 10th but think they’ll play finals.
KINGY: I think they’re out of the eight, and I think at Round 10 the club has to make a decision whether Buckley is committed to the rebuild, and are they committed to Buckley?
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