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THE LAST SAY: Tips, market movers for Thousand Guineas at Caulfield, The Hunter at Newcastle

Tips, market movers and the latest track conditions … Ray Thomas gives you all the information you need to back a winner on Thousand Guineas Day at Caulfield and The Hunter Day at Newcastle.

Ray Thomas
5 min read
November 16, 2024 - 7:19AM
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Sydney’s champion trainer and jockey, Chris Waller and James McDonald, can close out a memorable Melbourne spring carnival by claiming another Group 1 success with Aeliana in the $1.5 million Thousand Guineas (1600m) at Caulfield.

The 2024-25 season is not even four months old and Waller has trained a record 10 Group 1 winners through to the end of Cup Week, with seven majors in Melbourne.

• PUNT LIKE A PRO: Become a Racenet iQ member and get expert tips – with fully transparent return on investment statistics – from Racenet’s team of professional punters at our Pro Tips section. SUBSCRIBE NOW!

McDonald has ridden six Group 1 winners, four of those coming at Flemington during the Cup Carnival.

Caulfield hosts Melbourne’s final Group 1 meeting of the year with Aeliana the $3.30 TAB Fixed Odds favourite to give Waller and McDonald their third successive Thousand Guineas after they combined to win the fillies classic with Joliestar (2023) and Madame Pommery (2022).

• Mark Guest’s expert tips, race-by-race analysis for 2024 Thousand Guineas Day at Caulfield

Melbourne’s premier trainer Ciaron Maher has a powerful entry in the other Group 1 at the Caulfield meeting, the $1 million Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m) with $3.30 favourite Jimmysstar, Another Wil ($3.50) and Southport Tycoon ($10).

Newcastle has the sixth running of the $1 million The Hunter (1300m) where Team Hawkes’ boom young sprinter Briasa has been a sensational firmer, $5 into $2.80 favouritism.

• Professional punter James Molony’s expert tips, race-by-race analysis for 2024 The Hunter Day at Newcastle

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CAULFIELD
Weather: Warm, partly cloudy day with a forecast top temperature of 32c.

Track: Good (4)

Rail: 6m out entire

NEWCASTLE
Weather: Mild, partly cloudy day with a forecast top temperature of 24c.

Track: Soft (5)

Rail: True

SUNSHINE COAST
Weather: Mild, partly cloudy day with a chance of showers and a forecast top temperature of 24c.

Track: Soft (7)

Rail: 2m out entire

MORPHETTVILLE
Weather: Hot, partly cloudy day with a chance of a shower or late in the afternoon and a forecast top temperature of 37c.

Track: Good (4)

Rail: True

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

BE WARY: Caulfield’s is out 6m after being in the 3m position for Caulfield Cup Day on October 19. With a warm day forecast and the track already a good 4, there is a likelihood those on speed will be favoured. At Newcastle, the track is a soft 5 but is expected to improve and shouldprovide a fair racing surface.

• Tips from the big bookies: Thousand Guineas and The Hunter day edition

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CAULFIELD TIPS

THE BEST BET
NIANCE (Race 10 No.4) broke through at stakes level when resuming with a game win in the Listed Alinghi Stakes. The Grahame Begg-trained is only lightly-raced but is building an impressive record with five wins from nine starts. Niance has drawn barrier seven and should be able close to the speed, stalking the leaders. Promising mare and she will be improved by her first-up win. Niance is in the Caulfield closer but the wait will be worth it.

THE NEXT BEST
COLEMAN (Race 4 No.1) has been racing in elite sprints all spring and won’t know himself in what looks a very winnable Blue Sapphire Stakes. He ran competitively when unplaced against older horses in the Moir Stake and Manikato Stakes then chased home the brilliant Switzerland in the Roman Consul Stakes. Coleman then ran only seventh in the Coolmore Stud Stakes as Switzerland ran riot. Coleman, runner-up in the Golden Slipper last season, has a handicap rating of 102 and the next highest in the race is Pisces with 78. If Coleman is anywhere near his best, then bad luck in running is his main danger.

VALUE BET
CHARM STONE (Race 9 No.10) was a dual stakes-winner last season but had nearly 12 months off before resuming with an unplaced run at Caulfield. She showed significant improvement last when closing late for third to Maharba at Flemington on Derby Day. Charm Stone gets into the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes on the 52kg limit, she’s drawn nicely in barrier three, should be peaking third-up and is great value around $15.

THE WHISPER
RICH DOTTIE (Race 6 No.3) has only had three starts for two impressive wins including her comeback effort at Moonee Valley late last month. She raced in a forward position and dashed clear of her rivals to win comfortably in a swift 57.33s for 1000m. Rich Dottie is well bred by Written Tycoon out of the Redoute’s Choice mare Dorothy Of Oz and she looks well above average. She is set to make the transition to stakes grade.

• Cameron Happ’s best bets for Caulfield on Saturday

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NEWCASTLE TIPS

THE BEST BET
BULLETS HIGH (Race 4 No.4) resumed with a brilliant win at Warwick Farm defeating subsequent winner Edited By then was unlucky not to go back-to-back at Rosehill when he finished strongly wide out to just miss behind Battleton over 1500m. Promising four-year-old well suited going out to 1600m on spacious Newcastle track. He looks placed to advantage.

NEXT BEST
WYCLIF (Race 9 No.4) deserves a big race win after two narrow losses in the St Leger and Rosehill Gold Cup. His last start effort was outstanding as he was dropping back from 2600m to 2000m and was badly held up in the straight before charging home to just miss reeling in Fawkner Park. Wyclif will appreciate going back out to 2300m for The Beauford.

VALUE BET
UZZIAH (Race 10 No.17) returned with a dominant all-the-way win at Randwick over 1200m then backed it up with another very good effort when closing late for third behind Tristate over 1100m at Rosehill. He’s back out to a more suitable 1300m, drawn well in barrier four and drops 6.5kg to 52kg here. He’s been a massive firmer from $11 to $4 favourite for the closer.

THE WHISPER
PRIVATE EYE (Race 8 No.1) is a dual Group 1 winner of more than $11.7 million and the class horse of The Hunter field. He has topweight of 60kg but given his record, he’s not badly weighted given there is a 53kg limit. Private Eye has been racing in all the big sprints this spring and was beaten less than two lengths when sixth in The Everest then ran fifth in the Russell Balding Stakes, both won the Bella Nipotina. Private Eye just might prove too good for the The Hunter field.

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TAB FIXED ODDS BIG BETS AND MARKET MOVERS

CAULFIELD
Race 1: Hiyaam Proud $4-$3.20 with a bet of $2500 at $3.30, Sure $6-$5, Ruakaka Raider $10-$8, Goldenstatewarrior $15-$10
Race 2: Tiffany Valentine $5.50-$4.80, Pantelone $8-$6.50, Rocket Tiger $18-$10, Harry Got Styles $15-$11, Bellinger $17-$11
Race 3: Sassy Boom $15-$5, Regal Vow $7-$5.50, Bigolino $7-$6, The Shaper $13-$7.50, Eye Of The Eagle $15-$10
Race 4: Coleman $2.60-$2.30, Pisces $5.50-$3.90, Catoggio $4.60-$4.40
Race 5: Pharari $3.20-$3, Kin $5-$4, Celui $17-$10
Race 6: Tobeornottobe $6-$5, She’s Got Pizzazz $8.50-$5
Race 7: Zeitung $6-$4.20
Race 8: New York Hurricane $8-$4.40, Arran Bay $7.50-$7, Keats $12-$8
Race 9: Jimmysstar $3.60-$3.10, Another Wil $4.40-$3.50 with bets of $2000 at $3.90, $2000 at $3.50, Southport Tycoon $11-$10
Race 10: Niance $3-$2.40, She’s Bulletproof $7.50-$5.50

• MARKET MOVERS: Punters declare their hands in early Saturday betting

NEWCASTLE
Race 1: A Bar In Paris $5-$3.70, Good Hotspur $6-$4
Race 2: Piraeus $4-$3.90, Harlow Mist $4.60-$4, Brazil $11-$7.50
Race 3: Cable Express $6-$4.60, Bandasha $8-$6.50, Ghost Walker $11-$9.50
Race 4: For Victory $11-$6
Race 5: Pippie Beach $2.60-$2.50, Callistemon $26-$9.50
Race 6: Glad You Think So $5-$4.60, Ganbare $8-$6.50, Fay’s Angels $8-$7, Rogue Bear $15-$7.50
Race 7: Alabama State $4-$3.90, Snitzanova $8-$6.50, French Ruler $26-$8, Miss Spacegirl $26-$13
Race 8: Briasa $5-$2.80
Race 9: Naval College $7-$5, Nikau Spur $15-$7.50, Dionysus $11-$9
Race 10: Uzziah $11-$5, Battleton $6-$5.50

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SUNSHINE COAST TIPS
Race 3 No.3 I AM ARTIE
Race 5 No.9 TRANSATLANTIC

• Graeme Carey’s expert tips, race-by-race analysis for Sunshine Coast on Saturday

MORPHETTVILLE TIPS
Race 1 No.1 ROYAL MILE
Race 8 No.7 BEAUTY BOUND

• Heath Pope’s expert tips for Morphetville; Aaron Mills’ best bets for Ascot

KEMBLA GRANGE TIPS
Race 3 No.1 INOUE

Race 8 No.3 AMUSING

• Laurie’s longshots: Saturday’s best roughies from Laurie Sainsbury

#Good luck today and I hope you back plenty of winners

Originally published as THE LAST SAY: Tips, market movers for Thousand Guineas at Caulfield, The Hunter at Newcastle

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Original URL: https://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/sport/racing/the-last-say-tips-market-movers-for-thousand-guineas-at-caulfield-the-hunter-at-newcastle/news-story/0b683c313d20acb97c17835caa6af50c