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The Last Say: Tips, market movers and inside mail for Saturday’s racing on June 21, 2025

Ray Thomas previews a massive day of racing featuring the Civic Stakes at Royal Randwick, the Ipswich Cup, Eye Liner Stakes and Gai Waterhouse Classic at Ipswich and a nine-race card at Flemington.

Ray Thomas
7 min read
June 21, 2025 - 7:01AM

Headley Grange has been confidently backed to win the Listed $200,000 Civic Stakes (1400m) at Royal Randwick and Warnie has attracted heavy market support for the Listed $200,000 Eye Liner Stakes (1350m) at Ipswich on Saturday.

The Joe Pride-trained Headley Grange, an impressive first-up winner at Randwick two weeks ago, has firmed from $4.60 to $3 favouritism with TAB Fixed Odds while his odds with Ladbrokes have been slashed from $4.50 to $2.90 including bets of $500 at $4.40 and $1000 at $3.10.

Warnie, trained by Ciaron Maher, has been a big mover with Ladbrokes punters backing the sprinter from $3.20 to $2.60 favouritism after bets of $900 at $3.20, $1000 at $3.10, $1000 at $3.05, $1000 at $2.90, $2000 and $1000 at $2.85, $1100 and $750 at $2.80 and $780 at $2.70.

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But this betting plunge pales in comparison with the sheer weight of money invested on Splash Back in the Brian Beattie Handicap (1420m) at Flemington.

Grahame Begg’s promising mare has firmed from $2.70 into $1.80 favouritism after Ladbrokes took a string of big bets including six bets of $1180 and four bets of $1000 at $2.70, four bets of $1670 plus $1600, $1100 and four $1000 bets at $2.20, and a $2000 wager at $1.85.

The Ladbrokes betting plunge for Godolphin two-year-old Observer in the Flemington opener, the TAB We’re On (1420m) has also been significant as he’s firmed from $2.15 into $1.60 with some big bets including $1750 twice and $1700 at $2.15, $1570 and six $1000 bets at $2, $2100 twice, $2000 and $1800 at $1.95 and $2100 at $1.80.

England’s famous Royal Ascot carnival finishes tonight with plenty of Australian interest in Storm Boy who runs in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (1200m).

There has been a confident push from Coolmore that crack colt Storm Boy will bounce back to his best with the three-year-old expected to challenge French raider and Golden Eagle runner-up Lazzat for favouritism. Storm Boy is currently at $5.50 with Lazzat heading betting at $3.60.

• Big Bets: 2yo popular with punters on Saturday

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ROYAL RANDWICK
Weather: Cool, mostly sunny day and a forecast top temperature of 18c.
Track: Soft (5).
Rail: 3m out.

FLEMINGTON
Weather: Cold, most sunny day with a forecast top temperature of 15c.
Track: Good (4).
Rail: 11m out.

IPSWICH
Weather: Warm, sunny day with light winds and a forecast top temperature of 25c.
Track: Good (4).
Rail: 0.5m out.

MORPHETTVILLE
Weather: Cool, mostly sunny day with a forecast top temperature of 19c.
Track: Soft (6).
Rail: 13m out from 1200m to the winning post.

• Market Movers: Feature race favourite $3 into $2.40

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BE WARY: Royal Randwick is rated a soft 5 and likely to move into the good range at some stage during the meeting. The rail is out 3m but the track should race fairly. Flemington’s into the good range for winter racing but the rail is out 11m. Watch for any discernible track bias in early races. Ipswich’s rail is out half a metre with the track in the good range for Cup Day and the likelihood the track will race evenly.

• Ray & Duff’s Randwick tips: Punters should plan their Exit on Saturday

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ROYAL RANDWICK TIPS

BEST BET: Race 3 No.4 BRAVE ONE was a $300,000 Easter Yearling Sale purchase who has only had five starts for a debut Randwick win last July and two recent second placings at Canterbury and Rosehill since resuming. Promising three-year-old who didn’t shirk his task when second to a smart older horse in Kerguelen last start. Brave One has drawn a little awkwardly but Team Hawkes has found the right race for him and with even luck in running he’s going to be very hard to beat.

THE NEXT BEST: Race 2 No.1 SHROPSHIRE LAD came off a brilliant first-up win at Scone with an unlucky second to Bengal in a Randwick Highway over 1100m. He was three-wide albeit with cover most of the way loomed up to win only to be edged out by a narrow margin. Drawn wide again and will need things to go his way but he’s at his peak after two runs from a spell and finds himself in a winnable race.

VALUE BET: Race 1 No.6 HOOLIGAN TOMMY has returned in good order this campaign with two wins and two placings from five starts. He comes to Randwick off a career-best effort at Kembla Grange where he gapped his rivals, winning by a widening margin of more than three lengths when shouldering 60.5kg in heavy going. Hooligan Tommy drops 2.5kg, gets onto a more suitable firmer track and he’s at value odds near $8.

THE WHISPER: Race 9 No.13 HEADLEY GRANGE was resuming over the Randwick 1300m two weeks ago and was held up for a run from the top of the straight until the 200m when he gained a split and sprinted through for a brilliant first-up win. Headley Grange’s final 200m split of 11.59s was the best of the day. Headley Grange goes out to 1400m for the Civic Sakes which is his best distance. The drying track conditions are in his favour, he hasn’t missed a top two finish in eight starts, winning four, and he has drawn perfectly in barrier four. He ticks all the boxes.

• Randwick expert tips: Clinton Payne’s race-by-race tips and analysis

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FLEMINGTON TIPS

BEST BET: Race 1 No.2 OBSERVER shaped promisingly on debut when he for home before finishing a close second at Pakenham but made significant improvement going out to 1400m at Sandown at start when he led throughout and bolted in by five lengths. Godolphin has unearthed a promising rising three-year-old in Observer who can get favourite backers off to a winning start.

NEXT BEST: Race 7 No.6 SPLASH BACK was dynamic first-up at Caulfield, coming from off speed early with a brilliant burst of acceleration to seep clear of her rivals and win by a widening margin of more than two lengths. Her sectional times were very impressive as she improved her record to five wins from just 11 starts. She’s been sensationally backed to win again.

VALUE BET: Race 6 No.5 BOLD SOUL won three stakes races including the Tasmanian Derby last season but struggled to regain top form over summer. There has been more encouraging signs from Bold Soul this campaign as he has improved in each of his four starts including a narrow loss to Muktamil over this course and distance last start. He’s ready to win.

THE WHISPER: Race 9 No.9 FIELDELO is protecting her unbeaten record here. She won at Kilmore last November when making her debut and then resumed at Bendigo when she carried 62.5kg but toyed with her rivals, winning by seven lengths in fast time. She looks a talent and there is plenty of market confidence to suggest she will maintain her perfect race record.

• Flemington expert tips: Brad Waters’ race-by-race tips, analysis and quaddie picks

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TAB FIXED ODDS BIG BETS AND MARKET MOVERS – ROYAL RANDWICK
Race 1: Callistemon $6-$4.20, Piraeus $8.50-$4.60
Race 2: Shropshire Lad $5-$4.80, Satin Stiletto $8-$5.50
Race 3: Lunaite $5.50-$4.60, Bengal $21-$12
Race 4: Millie De Lune $4-$3.80, Piggyback $8-$6
Race 5: Hopper $8-$5, Rotagilla $11-$5.50
Race 6: Quantum Cat $4.60-$3.10, Zaphod $5-$3.20
Race 7: Storm The Ramparts $3.80-$3.50, Gitalong $4.80-$4
Race 8: Raikkonen $3.40-$3, Fiddlers Green $11-$7.50
Race 9: Headley Grange $4.60-$3, Grebeni $19-$10
Race 10: Fully Lit $19-$7, Pereille $16-$9.50

• Tips from the big bookies for Saturday

LADBROKE BIG BETS AND MARKET MOVERS – ROYAL RANDWICK
Race 1: Hellfire Express $1000 at $5.50, Aix En Provence $500 at $9.25, Callistemon $6-$3.90 after a $400 wager at $6
Race 2: Satin Stilleto $7.50-$6.50 after a $300 bet at $7.50, Exit Fee $600 at $5.15
Race 3: Zielle $71-$41
Race 4: She’s Unusual $23-$6.50 with a bet of $500 at $7
Race 5: Hopper $8.50-$5, Rotagilla $15-$5 with bets of $140 at $15, $625/ $1000 at $9.75/$3.10, Stallone $27-$15
Race 6: Zaphod $4.80-$3.20 after a bet of $530 at $4.80,
Race 7: Lulumon $15-$8.50 with a bet of $145 at $15
Race 8: Raikkonen $3.20-$3.50-$3.10 after bets of $800 at $3.50, $650 and $500 at $3.30, $910 at $3.20, Fiddler’s Green $12-$7.50
Race 9: Headley Grange $4.50-$2.90 after bets of $500 at $4.40, $1000 at $3.10
Race 10: Accredited $500 at $9.75, $500 at $8.75, $1000 at $8, Kerguelen $3-$3.50-$2.80

• Randwick Turf Talk: The mare that can carry punters to a winning day at Randwick

LADBROKE BIG BETS AND MARKET MOVERS – FLEMINGTON
Race 1: Observer $2.15-$1.60 with some big bets including $1750 twice and $1700 at $2.15, $1570 and $1000 6 times at $2, $2100 twice, $2000 and $1800 at $1.95, $2100 at $1.80, Buccleuch $8-$5 with a bet of $290 at $8
Race 2: American Wolf $17-$12, Shockletz $910 at $3.20, $500 at $3.15, $1000 and $680 at $3, Vellasmachine $11-$6 with bets of $500 at $9.75, $250 at $8.5, Frontline Action $15-$11
Race 3: Cleo Cat $2.80-$3.15-$2.35 with bets of $500 at $3.15, $1000 and $500 at $3, $1050 and $520 at $2.90, $1100 at $2.80, $500 at $2.40
Race 4: Taken $500 at $3.10, $1050 at $2.90, From A Distance $13-$7 with a bet of $250 at $9
Race 5: Cafe Millenium with bets of $500 at $4.60, $590 and $500 twice at $4.50, Hard To Cross $500 at $28, Freak Of Nature $18-$10 with a bet of $120 at $18
Race 6: Bold Soul $5.50-$6-$5.50 including a big bet of $4000 win/place at $6/$2.15, Diwali $9-$6.50
Race 7: Splash Back $2.70-$1.80 with bets of $1180 6 times, $1000 4 times at $2.70, $1670 4 times, $1600, $1100 and $1000 4 times at $2.20, $2000 at $1.85 plus many others
Race 8: Jimmy The Bear $5-$4.40 with a bet of $500 at $5

Race 9: Salsa Fellow $14-$7 after a bet of $180 at $12, Bridal Waltz $10-$6.50 with a bet of $222 at $10, Fieldelo $3.40-$2.80 after bets of $1000 a $3.55, $1000 at $3.45, $1000 at $3.40, $870 4 times, $640, $540 and $500 twice at $3.30, $950 and $600 at $3.10, She’s An Artist $500 at $6

• Laurie’s Longshots: $20 value play on Tassie raider

LADBROKE BIG BETS AND MARKET MOVERS – IPSWICH
Race 1: No significant bets or market movers
Race 2: Boy’s Night Out $3.90-$3.10
Race 3: No significant bets or market movers
Race 4: Taltarni Fields $4-$2.60 with bets of $1000 at $4.15, $670 at $4, $1000 at $3.90, $830 at $3.40
Race 5: Deep Respect $11-$6.50 with bets of $200 at $11, Just Flying $17-$8.50 with a bet of $145 at $15, Restonica $13-$8 with a bet of $165 at $13, Poseidon Ruler $18-$9.50 after a $120 at $18
Race 6: No significant bets or market movers
Race 7: Poetic Drama $9-$6.50 with a bet of $250 at $9, Raf Attack $13-$9 after a bet of $165 at $13
Race 8: Warnie $3-$3.20-$2.60 with bets of $900 at $3.20, $1000 at $3.10, $1000 at $3.05, $1000 at $2.90, $2000 and $1000 at $2.85, $1100 and $750 at $2.80, $780 at $2.70, Devastate $14-$7 with a bet of $180 a $12
Race 9: Kin $9-$6, Gerringong $2.70-$3.10-$2.60 with bets of $525 at $2.90, $590 at $2.70

• Ipswich expert tips: Graeme Carey’s race-by-race tips, analysis and quaddie picks

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INTERSTATE MAIL
Ipswich Race 2 No.9 BOYS NIGHT OUT
Ipswich Race 7 No.4 OSMOSE
Ipswich Race 8 No.2 WARNIE
Ipswich Race 9 No.16 GERRINGONG
Morphettville Race 3 No.3 STARTS NOW

• Morphettville, Pinjarra expert tips: Heath Pope keen on $20 chance; Aaron Mills’ three big bets

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PROVINCIAL MAIL
Kembla Grange Race 5 No.3 RAINBOW GODDESS
Kembla Grange Race 6 No.1 UP AND UNDER

• Adam Sherry’s Kembla Saturday tips: Spaceballs ready to shine

#Good luck today and I hope you back plenty of winners

Originally published as The Last Say: Tips, market movers and inside mail for Saturday’s racing on June 21, 2025

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Original URL: https://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/sport/racing/the-last-say-tips-market-movers-and-inside-mail-for-saturdays-racing-on-june-21-2025/news-story/3226271cfa1e2b43124161d2f13f7130