The Last Say: Tips, inside mail, market movers for today’s racing

Adam Dobbin brings you all the information you need to back a winner today, with inside mail for key meetings at Royal Randwick, Caulfield, Doomben and more.

The equation should be rather simple for progressive mare It’s A Knockout today at Royal Randwick.

Produce the determined performance she did to salute first up off a seven-week break last start and the Dundeel mare should take a power of beating.

Trainer Ciaron Maher has kept It’s A Knockout to the 1400 metre for the second up assignment where he’ll again make full use of Braith Nock’s 2kg claim which is growing in worth by the day.

While It’s A Knockout looks poised to deliver another knockout punch at Randwick, it’s the hugely popular Jimmy The Bear that is one of the headline attractions at Caulfield.

• PUNT LIKE A PRO: Become a Racenet iQ member and get expert tips – with fully transparent return on investment statistics – from Racenet’s team of professional punters at our Pro Tips section. SUBSCRIBE NOW!

Honest as they come, Jimmy has been in a rich vein of form this winter and looks to have everything in order to continue that trend today up to the 2000 metres.

The Caulfield meeting is highlighted by the Group 3 Sir John Monash Stakes, the first sign we reach each year to remind us that the spring is rapidly approaching.

• Coyle looks to raise stakes for flying mare Lulumon

The Joe Pride-trained In Flight is holding favouritism for the 1100m clash in what will no doubt be a spirited affair with the speed on from the get go.

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TRACK CONDITIONS

ROYAL RANDWICK
Weather: Mostly sunny day and a forecast top temperature of 18c.
Track: Soft (5)
Rail: 6m out

DOOMBEN
Weather: Sunny with a forecast top temperature of 15c.
Track: Soft (5)
Rail: 1m out

CAULFIELD
Weather: Mostly sunny with chance of late cloud cover with a top temperature of 17c.
Track: Soft (6)
Rail: True (entire)

MURRAY BRIDGE
Weather: Cool, partly cloudy day with forecast top temperature of 16c.
Track: Soft (5)
Rail: Out 3m from 1200m chute, true remainder

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ROYAL RANDWICK TIPS

BEST BET
Race 9 No.10 IT’S A KNOCKOUT: Stays at the 1400 metre journey following an impressive first up win over this trip last time out. Gets a good draw and with Braith Nock’s 2kg claim in play again can go back-to-back.

It's A Knockout KO's them first up at Randwick! 🥊@cmaherracing@NockBraith@aus_turf_clubpic.twitter.com/Vz1UhglXXq

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) June 21, 2025

NEXT BEST
Race 10 No.10 SLINKY: Has caught the eye of sectional observers working home well in both runs this time in. Expect the step up to 1400m to work to her advantage as will a more suitable barrier draw. Looks poised to run a bold race.

A photo in the last at Warwick Farm! Slinky defeats Not That Easy by a pimple 😳@[e-mail]/i5vEH31j6O

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) December 18, 2024

• RANDWICK TIPS: Clinton Payne’s race-by-race tips, analysis and preview

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DOOMBEN TIPS

BEST BET
Race 4 No.2 TUFF TU MUS: Racing in brilliant form and see no reason that changes today. Is unbeaten in four Doomben appearances, Tiff Brooker stays aboard after guiding him in a recent trial and the good gate should see him mighty hard to hold out.

.@vandykeracing13 is on the board early at Eagle Farm! King Callow lifts Tuff Tu Mus to victory in Race 1. pic.twitter.com/L9hWygL7Lp

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) April 26, 2025

NEXT BEST
Race 6 No.3 FAT FINGERS: On the quick back up after finishing midfield at the Sunshine Coast last week. Will give away a start but will get her ideal ground today and gets 3kg weight relief with Cobi Vitler in the saddle. Look for her charging home late.

• DOOMBEN TIPS: Graeme Carey’s best bets, quaddie picks and race-by-race analysis

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CAULFIELD TIPS

BEST BET
Race 4 No.2 JIMMY THE BEAR: No prizes for finding a rampaging Jimmy The Bear but for those searching for an anchor for the day, it really does look like him. Good draw should ensure an economical run out to the 2000m at his sixth run for the prep.

Jimmy The Bear becomes a winter champion! 🐻

The lovable old marvel is victorious in the Winter Championship Final of 2025, after being the beaten favourite of 2023 🏆@[e-mail]/tQf3RC5gnM

— Racing.com (@Racing) July 5, 2025

NEXT BEST
Race 6 No.8 KAHHOFF: Grabbed late at Flemington last time out after putting away a strong midweek field the start prior. Rarely far away and from a good draw at his pet distance can give a sight nudging double figure odds.

Kahhof explodes at the furlong pole & they couldn't get near him 💥@moloney_racingpic.twitter.com/ACy8E4Xgjc

— Racing.com (@Racing) June 1, 2025

• CAULFIELD TIPS: Brad Waters’ best bets, quaddie picks, race-by-race analysis

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RANDWICK BY THE NUMBERS

JOCKEY / TRAINER WATCH
47.8% – Randwick Race 4 No.4 BENGAL (Nick Heywood/Luke Pepper)
42% – Randwick Race 8 No.8 PUNTIN (Ashley Morgan/Bjorn Baker)
21% – Randwick Race 10 No.6 VERY SEWREEL (Josh Parr/Bjorn Baker)
19.7% – Randwick Race 5 No.9 HOVLAND (Andrew Adkins/John O’Shea-Tom Charlton)
19.6% – Randwick Race 9 No.6 TIME QUEST (Ashley Morgan-Matthew Smith)

JOCKEY WATCH
JASON COLLETT – 9 rides, average price $4
RACHEL KING – 10 rides, average price $6.55
JOSH PARR – 6 rides, average price $8.75
BEN OSMOND – 5 rides, average price $9
BRAITH NOCK – 5 rides average price $10.10

RATINGS RULERS
Race 6 Number 10 - PIPPIE BEACH $3.40
Race 9 Number 10 - IT’S A KNOCKOUT $3.00
Race 10 Number 5 - CHANGING COLOURS $4.20

SECTIONAL STARS (best last 600m)
Race 4 Number 11 - CELERITY $5.60 34.28
Race 4 Number 9 - FLAME OF HESTIA $4.80 34.62
Race 10 Number 10 - SLINKY $6.00 33.91

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ROYAL RANDWICK MARKET MOVERS
Race 1: No. 4 CROSSBOW ($8 into $3.80)
Race 2: No. 6 IN SUMMER ($6 into $4), No. 11 SHUTTER ($51 into $31)
Race 3: No. 2 GLAD YOU THINK SO ($26 into $18), No. 10 CALLISTEMON ($4.80 into $3)
Race 4: No. 4 BENGAL ($34 into $19), No. 5 RANTAN ($51 into $26)
Race 5: No. 3 FEDERER ($5 into $3.80), No. 10 AROHA STONE ($10 into $7)
Race 6: No. 3 SALT LAKE CITY ($14 into $10), No. 4 ZAPHOD ($5.50 into $4)
Race 7: No. 3 LULUMON ($7 into $4.60), No. 4 AVONE ($11 into $6)
Race 8: No. 4 OH DIAMOND LIL ($6.50 into $4.80), No. 12 FIDDLERS GREEN ($11 into $7)
Race 9: No. 10 IT’S A KNOCKOUT ($4.20 into $3)
Race 10: No. 5 CHANGING COLOURS ($5 into $4.20), No. 10 SLINKEY ($14 into $6.50)

MARKET MOVERS: $14 into $6 in quaddie closer

A horse that's been a sectional star in two runs this preparation has been well found by early bird punters ahead of an upcoming assignment on Saturday. 👇https://t.co/W6ejb1Yk2u

— Racenet (@RacenetTweets) July 11, 2025

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BIG BETS

ROYAL RANDWICK
Race 1 No. 4 – Crossbow – $3000 @ $3.60
Race 3 No. 10 – Callistemon – $6000 @ $4.20
Race 5 No. 3 – Federer – $1000 @ $3.70
Race 6 No. 4 – Zaphod – $1000 @ $4
Race 8 No. 8 – Puntin – $3500 @ $4.50
Race 8 No. 8 – Puntin – $4000 @ $4.60
Race 9 No. 10 – It’s A Knockout– $5000 @ $2.40
Race 9 No. 10 – It’s A Knockout – $4000 @ $2.60

DOOMBEN
Race 1 No. 4 – Pre Eminence – $1200 @ $2.70
Race 4 No. 3 – Tuff Tu Mus – $2500 @ $3
Race 7 No. 15 – Artful Girl – $1500 @ $11
Race 8 No. 10 – John Rambo – $2000 @ $4
Race 9 No. 11 – She Ours – $1000 @ $6
Race 9 No. 11 – She Ours – $5000 @ $8

CAULFIELD
Race 1 No. 2 – Signature Scent – $4000 @ $2.25
Race 2 No. 7 – Shadhavar – $9000 @ $4
Race 3 No. 2 – Supercilious – $4000 @ $4
Race 4 No. 2 – Jimmy The Bear – $15,000 @ $1.60
Race 4 No. 2 – Jimmy The Bear – $10,000 @ $1.70
Race 8 No. 6 – In Flight – $9000 @ $2.90
Race 8 No. 6 – In Flight – $5000 @ $2.80
Race 9 No. 5 – Aztec State – $5000 @ $3.40

TIPS FROM THE BIG BOOKIES FOR SATURDAY

The bagmen give a tip in the only black-type race on the Eastern Seaboard – the Group 3 Sir John Monash Stakes at Caulfield – as well as tricky legs of the Randwick and Doomben quaddies. 👇https://t.co/vvuvwrkj5f

— Racenet (@RacenetTweets) July 11, 2025

• LAURIE’S LONGSHOTS: $26 chance ‘goes close with average luck’

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INTERSTATE MAIL (VIC/SA)
Caulfield Race 3 No.3 XARPO
Caulfield Race 4 No.2 JIMMY THE BEAR
Caulfield Race 6 No.6 KEEP YOUR COOL
Caulfield Race 7 No.9 THE OPEN
Murray Bridge Race 7 No.4 RICHE D’AMOUR
Murray Bridge Race 9 No.2 MERCHANT BOSS

• MURRAY BRIDGE, BUNBURY TIPS: $15 chance ‘huge value’

PROVINCIAL MAIL (NSW)
Newcastle Race 1 No.9 Nullarbor Jane
Newcastle Race 7 No.12 Dubai Gold

#Good luck today and I hope you back plenty of winners

Originally published as The Last Say: Tips, inside mail, market movers for today’s racing