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THE LAST SAY: Tips, inside mail for today’s racing as stars’ scratchings rock Group 1 features at Randwick, Flemington

Ceolwulf is out of the Verry Ellegant Stakes at Randwick and Angel Capital has been scratched from the Australian Guineas at Flemington ... Ray Thomas brings you the latest news and tips for today’s racing.

Ray Thomas
8 min read
March 1, 2025 - 2:15PM
Punters – Hold All Tickets Ep 25 – J-Mac v Wayne

Hall of Fame trainer Chris Waller and champion jockey James McDonald can combine for a Group 1 double at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

The first Sydney major of the year is the $750,000 Surround Stakes where McDonald’s mount, boom filly Lady Shenandoah from the Waller stable dominates betting and is the $1.50 favourite in latest TAB Fixed Odds betting.

Waller has four runners in the race with Declichy Boulevard, Lazzura and Amelita also in the big race but Lady Shenandoah casts a giant shadow over the fillies classic.

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The feature race of the Randwick program, the $1 million Verry Elleegant Stakes (1600m), was rocked this morning by the scratching of Joe Pride’s dual Group 1 winner Ceolwulf, who had sustained a minor abrasion on his shin after kicking out in his stall late this week.

Pride reported he was “not 100 per cent happy” with the four-year-old this morning and chose to take no chances with the winner of more than $4.8 million in just 15 starts.

“I was hoping he was going to be okay, it still looks good, there’s no swelling there but I’d say he’s got a bit of bruising because he’s just not moving 100 per cent right,” Pride said.

Ceolwulf’s scratching leaves Waller with a mortgage on the race, with Via Sistina the favourite to exact revenge over her stablemate Fangirl, the brilliant first-up Apollo Stakes winner..

McDonald will ride Via Sistina as she aims for her fifth Group 1 win of the season, while Waller also has Lindermann and the stayer Land Legend lining up in the race.

The Golden Slipper lead-up races, the Skyline Stakes and Sweet Embrace Stakes, are both Group 2 1200m sprints worth $300,000 and have attracted quality fields.

Unbeaten Rivellino and Shaggy clash in the Skyline along with promising Comedy, Skyhook, Algorithmic and Quietly Arrogant, while the fillies division is a deep race featuring Snitzel Miss, Within The Law, Memo and Bellazaine.

McDonald is favoured to have a big day at Randwick where he is booked to ride six favourites – Spring Lee (Race 3), Snitzel Miss (Race 5), Amelia’s Jewel (Race 6), Lady Shenandoah (Race 7), Via Sistina (Race 8) and Birdman (Race 10).

Flemington’s feature is the Group 1 $1 million Australian Guineas (1600m) in which the early favourite, the Clinton McDonald-trained Angel Capital, was withdrawn this morning.

“A little bit of mucus this morning,” McDonald said.

“We saddled him up and he had one little cough and we thought ‘oh yeah, he’s just clearing his throat, that’s OK’.

“We’d run bloods off him and scoped him twice this week.

“We trotted him up and a few more coughs and I rang the vet and said ‘you better get here and scope this horse’. We scoped him, up high no mucus but down really low, down deep in his lungs there was a good stream of mucus there and we had no option but to scratch him.”

In a reshaped Guineas market, Sepals is now the $3.90 favourite with Sydney three-year-old Point And Shoot pressing at $4.60.

Point And Shoot is trained by Bjorn Baker who has had a sensational summer, training 70 winners since December 1 including 42 on Sydney tracks to vault into second on the premiership standings with 58 wins behind Waller on 91 wins with five months of the 2024-25 season remaining.

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ROYAL RANDWICK
Weather: Warm, partly cloudy day with a forecast top temperature of 29c.
Track: Good (4)
Rail: True

FLEMINGTON
Weather: Warm, partly cloudy day and a forecast top temperature of 25c.
Track: Good (4)
Rail: 2m out

EAGLE FARM
Weather: Warm, partly cloudy day with the slight chance of a shower or two and a forecast top temperature of 31c.
Track: Good (4)
Rail: 2.5m out

MORPHETTVILLE PARKS
Weather: Warm, partly cloudy day with a forecast top temperature of 28c.
Track: Good (4)
Rail: 6m out

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BE WARY: Randwick’s rail is back in the true after being out 4m two weeks ago The track played fairly at the most recent meeting but with a rating of a good 4 today, those on pace might be advantaged. As always, watch the early races for any discernible track bias. At Flemington, the rail is out 2m after being in the true position a fortnight ago when the track was racing well until heavy rain fell mid-afternoon and it was downgraded to a soft 7. The Melbourne forecast is for fine, warm weather today and the track should stay in the good range, providing a perfect racing surface.

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ROYAL RANDWICK

THE BEST BET: Race 6 No.1 AMELIA’S JEWEL didn’t win a race last year but ran five seconds from eight attempts at the top level including The Quokka, Golden Pendant and Empire Rose Stakes. She’s resuming off two easy barrier trials but it is worth noting she has a very good fresh record of four wins and two seconds from six attempts. Amelia’s Jewel is a Group 1 winner of nearly $4 million so she is very well placed under the set weights and penalties conditions of the Guy Walter Stakes.

THE NEXT BEST: Race 5 No.5 BELLAZAINE had to do a lot of work in the Lonhro Plate over 1000m when resuming, sharing the lead around the turn, wresting control over the rise and refusing to surrender her lead in a strong return to racing. Beiwacht made a race of it but could not bridge the gap on Bellazaine. Beiwacht came out last week and franked the form by winning the Silver Slipper easily Bellazaine is back against her own sex at level weights here, she’s drawn to advantage, will be in a controlling position throughout and is the one to beat.

VALUE BET: Race 2 No.13 SHE WITHIN drew an outside gate and was three-wide without cover at Canterbury but still looked likely to score only to be run down in the shadows of the post over 1250m last start. She has to drop back to 1000m here but has drawn barrier two and if she can hold her position early, the filly will give a great sight. She Within is very genuine and is good value at near double figure odds.

THE WHISPER: Race 8 No.9 FANGIRL was brilliant first-up in the Apollo Stakes, beating many of her rivals in today’s race to win convincingly but she has almost been forgotten in the lead-up to the Verry Elleegant Stakes. Fangirl did win the 7 Stakes easily second-up over the Randwick 1600m last spring, she excels at Randwick, and is at her best on a good track. The barrier draw favours Fangirl, she will be in front of her main rival Via Sistina on the turn and she will be flat out catching her.

• EXPERT TIPS: Greg Polson’s race-by-race tips and exclusive rated prices for Royal Randwick, Newcastle and Wagga

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FLEMINGTON TIPS

BEST BET: Race 2 No.2 REVELARE has been a good horse for followers of this column in recent weeks and there is no reason to drop off him just yet. He’s a promising son of champion racehorse and sire So You Think, and has stormed through the grades this preparation, reeling off four successive wins including his impressive effort over the Flemington 2000m course last start. Revelare has now won five of his seven career starts, he is blessed with impressive acceleration, is destined for bigger things and should win again.

NEXT BEST: Race 8 No.12 SEPALS has made rapid progress in his debut preparation, winning his maiden at his second start then backing that up with wins at Sandown and then Flemington in the Group 3 CS Hayes Stakes. Sepals bolted in by more than three lengths last start and seems well equipped to make the transition to Group 1 level for the Australian Guineas in his first campaign. Sepals is going to get a soft run from barrier three and has champion jockey Blake Shinn to guide him so he has plenty in his favour.

VALUE BET: Race 7 No.4 ZARDOZI adds considerable class to the Blamey Stakes and returns to her favourite track where she invariably runs well and has won a VRC Oaks. Although her best form is over staying distances, it is worth remembering she ran a blinder to finish a close fifth in the Empire Rose Stakes over the Flemington 1600m on Derby Day before backing up to run her very good fourth in the Melbourne Cup last spring. She resumed in the Apollo Stakes and although she faded to finish at the rear of the field, she was beaten less than four lengths. Zardozi is value at $7 in a winnable Blamey Stakes.

THE WHISPER: Race 5 No.2 CLEAN ENERGY is unbeaten in two starts last winter, beating boom filly Lady Shenandoah in both including a stakes race during the Brisbane winter carnival. Clean Energy has had a long time out but she has had two solid barrier trials in Sydney and seems ready to go. Superbly bred filly who is champion sire Zoustar out of top broodmare Solar Charged, making her a full sister to three-time Group 1 winner Sunlight. Clean Energy cost $2.6 million at the Magic Millions Yearling Sale two years ago and is worth every cent given she is already a stakeswinner. There’s a strong push for her to make a winning return.

• LAURIE’S LONGSHOTS: Laurie’s Sainsbury’s best value bets for today, including a $12 play to close out the day

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TAB FIXED ODDS BIG BETS AND MARKET MOVERS

ROYAL RANDWICK
Race 1: Mogal Monarch $8-$5 with a bet of $3000 at $6
Race 2: Kreon $4.60-$5-$4.80, My Last Hooray $15-$12, Fuld’s Doubt $26-$14
Race 3: Spring Lee $2.50-$2.25
Race 4: Shaggy $2.80-$2.20 with a bet of $2000 at $2.20]
Race 5: Snitzel Miss $4.60-$4.20, Within The Law $8-$6, Wootton Lass $26-$18 with a bet of $5000 at $18
Race 6: Amelia’s Jewel $2.80-$2.30 including a bet of $4500 at $2.70
Race 7: Lady Shenandoah $1.70-$1.55 after some big bets including $5000 at $1.60, $5000 place at $1.12, $4000 at $1.60, $3000 at $1.70 multiple times, Lady Of Camelot $4.60-$4.40
Race 8: Via Sistina $2.10-$1.85-$1.65 with a bet of $10000 at $1.85, $2000 at $2
Race 9: Iowna Merc $6-$4.20, With Your Blessing $8-$6
Race 10: Birdman $3.60-$3.30, Kings Valley $3.60-$3.40, Sweysive $6-$5.50, Father’s Day $11-$8.50

FLEMINGTON
Race 1: Shining Smile $2.80-$2.60 including a bet of $5000 at $2.60, Cavalry Girl $4.60-$3.10
Race 2: Revelare $2.90-$1.95 with a $4000 bet at $2.30, Shiny New Deel $11-$8, Perfect Play $15-$10, Ghetto Supastar $15-$10
Race 3: She’s Got Pizzazz $5.50-$3.40, Midwest $6-$4.60, Perilous Fighter $11-$9
Race 4: Top Calibre $7-$4.80, Barbaric Lad $11-$9.50
Race 5: Clean Energy $4.40-$3.20 with bets of $4000 at $3.50, $2000 a $3.20, Scillato $5.50-$4.60
Race 6: Enxuto $4.20-$3.60, Acid Wash $6.50-$5.50, Sunshineinmypocket $7-$6, Angland $9.50-$9, Wonder Boy $9.50-$9
Race 7: Steparty $4-$3.70, Marble Arch $6.50-$6, Zardozi $8.50-$7.50, Just Folk $12-$9
Race 8: Sepals $6-$4.40-$3.90 with a bet of $2000 at $6, Point And Shoot $7-$5-$4.60
Race 9: Reserve Bank $5.50-$5, El Morzillo $8-$7, Certain Rise $11-$9, Scintilla $11-$9 including a $2500 at $10
Race 10: Arqana $4.40-$4.20, Euphoric $7.50-$5 with a $2400 bet at $7.50, Aramco $6.50-$6

• EXPERT TIPS: Cameron Happ’s best bets for Flemington on Saturday

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INTERSTATE MAIL
• Eagle Farm Race 4 No.1 GOODLUCKTOME
• Eagle Farm Race 8 No.2 COMPELLING TRUTH
• Morphettville Race 1 No.2 LORD VALEN
• Morphettville Race 7 No.7 THE SHOWVINIST

• EAGLE FARM TIPS: Graeme Carey’s best bets, race-by-race tips and analysis for Eagle Farm

• EXPERT TIPS: $8.50 value play at Morphettville plus four plays at Ascot

PROVINCIAL MAIL
• Newcastle Race 1 No.1 GAMBLER
• Newcastle Race 6 No.6 UNCONQUERABLE

# Good luck today and I hope you back plenty of winners

Originally published as THE LAST SAY: Tips, inside mail for today’s racing as stars’ scratchings rock Group 1 features at Randwick, Flemington

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