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Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s tips, analysis for Royal Randwick on Saturday: $3.50 best bet, $9 value pick

Ron Dufficy is banking on a classy import to defy the dreaded second-up syndrome when he steps out on Verry Elleegant Stakes Day at Royal Randwick. Get Ray and Duff’s best bets for Saturday.

Ray Thomas
9 min read
February 28, 2025 - 11:51AM
Ron Dufficy is keen to back Birdman in the final race on the card at Royal Randwick on Saturday. Picture: Pat Scala / Racing Photos
Ron Dufficy is keen to back Birdman in the final race on the card at Royal Randwick on Saturday. Picture: Pat Scala / Racing Photos

Racenet and The Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy debate all the chances over the 10-race card at Royal Randwick as Group 1 racing returns to Sydney on Saturday.

Ray Thomas (left) and Ron Dufficy.
Ray Thomas (left) and Ron Dufficy.

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DUFF’S BEST BET
Race 10 No.2 BIRDMAN

DUFF’S BEST VALUE
Race 4 No.7 SKYHOOK

• EXPERT TIPS: Professional punter James Molony’s race-by-race tips and analysis for Royal Randwick on Saturday

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RACE 1: Midway Handicap (1100m)

Ron Dufficy: Anything goes here. MOGUL MONARCH (3) is lightly raced and could be the one with upside. He just has to overcome an awkward draw but he was dominant first-up at Wyong. MAILATA (10) is suited at 1100m third-up and represents value but is also awkwardly drawn. ANGEL FUND (9) has been freshened since disappointing last start but her previous win at this distance was good. TO THE EXTREME (13) is a well-bred lightly-race mare who did enough first-up.

Ray Thomas: MOGUL MONARCH (3) resumed from a spell and was very impressive winning by a comfortable margin in fast time. He has to overcome a wide draw here but he has plenty of early speed and will be in this race for a long way. PHOTOGRAPHICS (8) has won two Randwick 1000m races from three starts this campaign and is drawn to get the right run again. SHALL BE (6) is also racing very consistently and should go close. TO THE EXTREME (13) ran well first-up at Warwick Farm to suggest she can run well again.

• Shayne O’Cass’s Randwick Saturday tips, race-by-race analysis

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R2: TAB Highway (1000m)

Dufficy: This is messy. I’ve settled on CARRIBEAN KING (5). He likes his runs spaced, he’s run second in each of his three attempts over this track and distance, and although he has no recent wins this might be the perfect race for him. SHE WITHIN (13) sets up well with a good draw and maps nicely. KREON (3) and EXIT FEE (7) have the form but whether they can cope with coming back to 1000m from 1300m a week ago is the question.

Thomas: SHE WITHIN (13) comes out of a Canterbury Highway where she just missed over 1250m. She drew wide that night and had to go back early. She drops back to 1000m but has drawn ideally in barrier two and if she can hold a position early, then she will be hard to beat. HELLUVA TEEN (10) has won three straight and deserves her chance here. The barrier draw has also been kind and puts her right into the race. MY LAST HOORAY (2) won each of his three starts when last in work and resumes off two handy Queanbeyan trials. He’s underrated but will run well. EXIT FEE (7) was impressive winning at Rosehill last week over 1300m but has drawn off the track here. He will be finishing fast.

• EXPERT TIPS: Australian Guineas, Verry Elleegant Stakes, Surround Stakes

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R3: Asahi Super Dry Hcp (1200m)

Dufficy: I know SPRING LEE (6) hasn’t won at 1200m but she is very fit, maps well for James McDonald, and is against a field of horses with fitness queries. She might just beat them on fitness. YISKA (4) had excuses last start and his previous effort to win over this course and distance was solid. GLINT OF SILVER (1) is off a long spell but he has had three trials and if anywhere near his best he will be in the finish. SWISS EXILE (3) is an improver. He wasn’t bad first-up and can lift here.

Thomas: SPRING LEE (6) faded to miss a place in the Triscay Stakes but drops back to an easier race here. She’s had her chances this preparation but finds herself in a very winnable race. Spring Lee has drawn well and gets James McDonald. This is her chance. YISKA (4) is back to his right trip here and is racing well. LES VAMPIRES (5) is resuming after a long spell but he was competitive against the best three-year-olds last season. His two trials have him ready for his comeback. GLINT OF SILVER (1) is also resuming off a long spell but he’s had a good grounding for this race.

• Sky’s the limit for Slipper hopeful on Saturday

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R4: Skyline Stakes (1200m)

Dufficy: I found this very hard but I kept looking at barrier one for SKYHOOK (7) and felt he represents value. Skyhook was great behind Shaggy on debut, there was money for him that day, he’d only had one trial going into that race so I’m gambling he’s got the most improvement. RIVELLINO (1) is hard to knock off his two good wins at Randwick and he should relish the 1200m now. QUIETLY ARROGANT (3) has trialled up very well since having no luck in the Magic Millions, and I’m not knocking SHAGGY (2) but he is short enough for a horse that I want to see tick off that 1200m box.

Thomas: Intriguing race featuring the unbeaten duo SHAGGY (2) and RIVELLINO (1). Shaggy led throughout and was strong through the line to win the Pierro Plate last start. He’s got plenty of natural brilliance and finds another gear when challenged. Rivellino has also been very strong late in his races and he was good winning the Inglis Millennium. He will be finishing hard again. COMEDY (4) can only be improved by his first-up effort behind Shaggy and will enjoy getting to 1200m. ALGORITHMIC (8) was finishing fast to just miss a place on debut behind Rivellino and is a big improver.

• ‘We have to fight hard to get what we can’: The battlers serving it up to the behemoths

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R5: Sweet Embrace Stakes (1200m)

Dufficy: Another race that will answer a few questions. I quite like SNITZEL MISS (11). She’s had an easy trial since an encouraging run in the Widden Stakes where she finished with two horses that have since run well in the Blue Diamond. BELLAZAINE (5) was very impressive in the Lonhro Plate and defeated the subsequent Silver Slipper winner. She dug in really deep to win last start but she has to cope with the jump from 1000m to 1200m. PRICE TAG (7) ran unplaced in the Inglis Millennium but I want to be forgiving of her as she was left stranded on a hot speed wide with no cover. MEMO (2) has trialled up nicely and although she is still a maiden she has been competing at a good level and is very genuine.

Thomas: I’ve got to go with BELLAZAINE (5). She was simply too fast and too good for Beiwacht in the Lonhro Plate and that horse was brilliant winning the Silver Slipper last week. Bellazaine is back in fillies grade at level weights, she’s drawn to get all the advantages and is the one to beat. MEMO (2) is still a maiden after four starts but is very competitive and bursting to win a race. WITHIN THE LAW (1) came from last on the turn and nearly reeled in Rivellino in the Inglis Millennium. She won her previous two starts and rates highly again. I’ve also got SNITZEL MISS (11) in my numbers as she can only improve off her excellent debut run.

• Memo to punters: Don’t write off Snowden in Slipper

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R6: Guy Walter Stakes (1400m)

Dufficy: The top three should have this between them but it is hard to split them, Ray. I’ll lean to OLENTIA (2). She was great first-up but it wasn’t a real race as it was run at a farcical early speed and developed into a sprint home. I’ll trust her consistency and believe she can train on. This does look a lovely race for AMELIA’S JEWEL (1) on paper to regain winning form but she is a little short in the market for me. ALSEPHINA (3) is a huge query. She has trialled in Perth, she has a tremendous winning strike-rate and has to be respected. SOUNDS OF HEAVEN (4) is held in high regard by the stable but it is just a matter of whether she is sharp enough for 1400m.

Thomas: I’ve gone with AMELIA’S JEWEL (1). She’s an outstanding mare with a very good fresh record and nearly $4 million prizemoney so she’s well placed here at the weights. She wasn’t asked to do much in her recent Rosehill trial and I’m banking on her to run up to her excellent first-up record. OLENTIA (2) was working to the line in the Expressway Stakes first-up and looks right in this contest. If there is an upset it could be TASHI (6). She was beaten less than two lengths in the Triscay Stakes and drops 4kg. ALSEPHINA (3) is a big danger for all the reasons you mentioned.

• Ray Thomas’s verdict: Who will win the Verry Elleegant Stakes?

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R7: Surround Stakes (1400m)

Dufficy: I think we all agree LADY SHENANDOAH (1) is an exciting prospect. She was brilliant first-up, has improvement to come, lovely draw and 1400m suits better. She has to be the go-to horse. LADY OF CAMELOT (2) went down fighting last start and going to 1400m first time I don’t believe is too bad as she will get into a lovely rhythm and give a big sight. I like DECLICHY BOULEVARD (11). She is a lovely, big filly who ran well first-up. MANAAL (3) is too good a filly not to be given another chance.

Thomas: It’s impossible to tip against LADY SHENANDOAH (1), Ron. She was brilliant beating most of these in the Light Fingers Stakes two weeks ago, is better suited at 1400m, is drawn to stalk the speed and it seems bad luck is probably her main danger. LADY OF CAMELOT (2) has the blinkers off here which should help her run a strong 1400m. She is some chance of an upset if left alone in front. AMELITA (9) was doing her best work on the line when sixth to Lady Shenandoah first-up and the extra distance suits. MANAAL (3) is a big improver.

• Ladies’ day: Camelot aims to turn the tables on Shenandoah

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R8: Verry Elleegant Stakes (1600m)

Dufficy: I have to sway to VIA SISTINA (8) this time. The 1600m–plus is her territory and I can’t see any problem with her here unless the pattern of the day shows it is hard to make ground, which I doubt. CEOLWULF (1) is getting closer and closer to Via Sistina. He’s an exciting horse moving forward but might be better third-up. No knock on FANGIRL (9) who had the superior acceleration the other day and she could well have it again. There is not much between those three. LINDERMANN (5) will give them something to chase.

Thomas: We are on the same page, Ron. I’ve also gone with VIA SISTINA (8). Her finishing sectionals were very good in the Apollo Stakes and getting out to 1600m is the key. CEOLWULF (1) was also running on strongly in the Apollo and he is something of a Randwick mile specialist. FANGIRL (9) was outstanding first-up and it would not surprise if she won again. LINDERMANN (5) gives himself every chance racing on speed. This will be another great race.

• Clinton Payne’s runner-by-runner analysis plus tips for 2025 Verry Elleegant Stakes

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R9: Liverpool City Cup (1300m)

Dufficy: I’m a fan of WILLAIDOW (7)’s courage. You know what you are going to get with him. He will roll forward, maybe take up the lead if he wants it, then they have to get past him. ENCAP (6) is here to run boldly first-up. GRINGOTTS (1) trialled really well at Scone. This is a start-off race for him with a big weight but I wouldn’t underestimate him as he had a great preparation last time in. IOWNA MERC (3) is very fit but the 1300m is a slight query.

Thomas: WILLAIDOW (7) has a fierce will-to-win as he demonstrated winning the Southern Cross Stakes. He is either going to lead or settle on speed and will be in the finish again. ENCAP (6) is a talent. He had a great preparation last spring into summer and is resuming off one trial but does sprint well fresh. IOWNA MERC (3) has just missed in successive Group races and is very fit. GRINGOTTS (1) is the class horse of the field, he’s got plenty of weight but is yet to miss a top three finish first-up in a preparation.

• Family pride at stake for Willaidow’s trainer in Liverpool City Cup

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R10: Toyota Forklifts Hcp (2000m)

Dufficy: I’ve got to stay with BIRDMAN (2). I might have gone off with one run too early first-up but he will come on from that run. The 2000m will be ideal second-up and with a decent run in transit he is going to be hard to beat. The only one I’m worried about is KINGS VALLEY (14). He arrives here with different form and he was beaten by a smart horse last start. There is plenty of depth to his form but he gets in light. WYMARK (5) is better than what he has shown at his second run back and the best of the rest is POLITICAL DEBATE (4) who won’t do as much work from a better draw.

Thomas: KINGS VALLEY (14) is also in at Flemington but I like his chances at Randwick. He chased home a promising horse in Revelare at Flemington last start and drops 4.5kg here. BIRDMAN (2) will be the hardest to beat. You gave him a good push at Randwick first-up and the horse ran well but this race sets up nicely for him. FATHER’S DAY (13) was good when resuming and SWEYSIVE (7) just keeps winning.

Originally published as Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s tips, analysis for Royal Randwick on Saturday: $3.50 best bet, $9 value pick

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Original URL: https://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/sport/racing/ray-thomas-and-ron-dufficys-tips-analysis-for-royal-randwick-on-saturday-350-best-bet-9-value-pick/news-story/8cf15834c8ef057a3ac5902c8b01b35c