Bookies at odds over Winx’s bid for third straight Cox Plate
ROBBIE Waterhouse has described Winx as the greatest of them all while Michael Sullivan believes the champion mare is vulnerable at Moonee Valley on Saturday.
Racing
Don't miss out on the headlines from Racing. Followed categories will be added to My News.
ROBBIE Waterhouse has described Winx as the greatest of them all while Michael Sullivan believes the champion mare is vulnerable at Moonee Valley on Saturday.
Two of the nation’s biggest bookmakers and renowned form students are at odds about Winx’s historic attempt at a third successive $3.5 million Cox Plate (2040m).
Waterhouse said none of Winx’s eight Cox Plate rivals are good enough to prevent the great mare from scoring her 22nd consecutive win.
“Winx has to beat herself to lose,’’ Waterhouse said.
RAY THOMAS: WINX’S TOP FIVE WINS
WINX IN PERFECT ORDER FOR PLATE
It might be false bravado on Sullivan’s part as his Bluebet company has lost “hundreds of thousands of dollars” on Winx but he considers the Moonee Valley track could be the mare’s undoing on Saturday.
“I think Winx is beatable — but this will probably make it 22 times in a row I have been wrong!” Sullivan said.
“The ray of hope I think is the tight Moonee Valley track. I know she is going for three Cox Plates in a row but she did look under the pressure in her runs in Sydney this preparation and only really got going when she straightened and flattened out.
“So, I feel the key to beating her is making sure the pressure goes on early. She will have to make ground on the turns around the Valley and if something can be off and gone, she could struggle to pull the leaders back.
“I think the two obvious dangers are the three-year-old, Royal Symphony, with only 49.5kg on his back, and Folkswood who was super impressive winning his only Australian start.’’
Waterhouse’s view is that Winx’s extraordinary acceleration and frequency of stride will provide her with a third Cox Plate on Saturday.
“Winx may be the best ever, if credit is given for her 2kg mares allowance,’’ said Waterhouse, one of Sydney’s leading bookies.
“I think Winx has the quickest stride I’ve ever seen. In contrast, Black Caviar had the longest stride I’ve ever witnessed. When she lengthens stride, Winx doesn’t ‘drop’ at the wither as much as Black Caviar but her stride is quicker.’’
Waterhouse said Winx, currently at $1.15 with most betting organisations, will stifle Cox Plate betting but, once again, this opinion differs with Sullivan.
“I don’t think the punters will have any problem loading up into her again,’’ Sullivan said.
“There are plenty of Bluebet punters who have backed her right through her winning streak so they are a long way in front on her and will happily go again.
“I will be taking her on again as she has stripped that much out of Bluebet, I just have to take her on again. What do they say ‘in for a penny, in for a pound.’’
Tom Waterhouse of William Hill said the Cox Plate should be handed to Winx’s owners now.
“Winx wins — easily,’’ Waterhouse said. “She is the best horse I’ve ever seen.
“She is great for racing and even though she is a long odds-on favourite, the big punters love to jump on her every start.’’
Sydney bookmaker Grant Palmer said Winx will continue her phenomenal winning streak.
“Winx is the greatest horse in my lifetime,’’ Palmer said. “She has won from 1100m to 2200m, weight-for-age and Group 1 handicaps, she hasn’t dodged any battles — she is an out and out superstar. Although she is too short for most punters to get involved with there are always the punters who want a part of history and those who treat her as better than bank interest.’’
Palmer felt Royal Symphony had the best chance — if any — of upsetting Winx.
“Royal Symphony has no weight on his back and they need to adopt the daring tactics of past three-year-old winners like So You Think (2009) and Shamus Award (2013) and try to pinch a lead before the turn, and then hope he can hold Winx off,’’ Palmer said.
Winx can cope with most scenarios, says Waller
TRAINER Chris Waller has revealed he is concentrating only on having Winx at her very best and not worrying about the opposition in the Cox Plate on Saturday.
“I haven’t put too much thought into the race and neither did I last year, except I knew what the media were talking about with the other obvious chances,’’ Waller said at Flemington trackwork during the week. “With Winx it’s just a matter of her getting into a nice rhythm, not being too phased by lightweight chances, where the pace is likely to come from.
“Those horses obviously have to give their competitors some respect as well so I doubt there would be silly tearaway leaders or horses making mid-race moves because it will bring them undone.’’
Waller’s admission he isn’t worrying too much about rivals or likely race tactics can also be interpreted as a trainer who has complete — and justifiable — confidence in Winx and her jockey Hugh Bowman.
“We have a good man in Hugh Bowman aboard, he won’t be fazed by any of that and he will be aware of lightweight chances, horses drawn to his inside, horses drawn to his outside, horses that do race up on the pace and horses that get back,’’ Waller said.
“That’s about as much analysing as we’ll put into the race, because we’ve got a pretty good horse to cope with most scenarios.”
Respected form expert Nathan Snow from Champion Bets said it is hard to find a logical reason how Winx could be beaten on Saturday.
“The fact is if Winx runs up to the figures she has been running this prep, she wins easily,’’ Snow said. “It’s just plain scary to think how far she will win by.’’
Snow says the only way Winx can be beaten is from “terrible luck in running or racing below her best”. “Given the first is unlikely with a small field engaged and an elite jockey on board, the only possible reason she could race below her best are the inoculations for a potential Japan Cup trip that has been known to knock horses around in the past,’’ he said.
Winx worked brilliantly at Flemington last Saturday and again impressed at Moonee Valley on Tuesday, prompting Waller to declare the mighty mare was in the best shape of her celebrated career. If that is the case, the Winx should have little trouble disposing of her eight Cox Plate rivals.
“Unfortunately, it’s not a vintage field here to give her a contest,’’ Snow said. “Folkswood could be the danger. Punters have to respect Charlie Appleby any time he races a horse here. He looks a very talented trainer who has had great success travelling horses to Australia.
“At his first run here, Folkswood scored a strong win in the Cranbourne Cup and we should expect him to take natural improvement here second up.
“Happy Clapper is the second best horse in the race and has been racing in tremendous form this spring. He’s better at 1600m, but can still run on well.
“Gailo Chop has been improving each run as he has stepped up in distance. He had things to suit last time but should get a good run again.’’
Happy Clapper’s trainer Pat Webster says you never know what’s around the corner in a horse race but admits it will take a monumental effort for Winx mare to be beaten.
“I was reading this week where six blokes in a marathon took a wrong turn and the seventh one won,” Webster said with a lot of hope. “My bloke is a fit horse, in career best form and we didn’t travel all this way to run second, although we have before. He’s earned $1 million chasing her home before so I’ll settle for another $440,000 for running second to her tomorrow.”
BIGGEST BETS ON WINX TO WIN
$106,500 at $1.15 (October 24)
$60,000 at $1.15 (October 24)
$50,000 at $1.15 (October 23)
$50,000 at $1.15 (October 24)
$43,478 at $1.15 (October 25)
$28,000 at $1.15 (October 23)
$25,000 at $1.15 (October 26)
$20,000 at $2.80 (December 8)
$20,000 at $1.50 (June 9)
$20,000 at $1.50 (July 28)
$20,000 at $1.15 (October 24)
$20,000 at $1.15 (October 26)
BIGGEST BETS NOT ON WINX TO WIN
$500 each-way on Kaspersky at $81/$6
$500 on Royal Symphony at $26
$500 on Humidor at $19
$300 on Royal Symphony at $34
$250 on Hardham at $301
$250 each-way on Folkswood at $21/$2.33
$250 each-way on Humidor at $18/$2.13
$200 each-way on Royal Symphony at $34/$7.60
$200 on Royal Symphony at $34
$200 on Happy Clapper at $23
$200 on Humidor at $19
BEST BACKED FOR THE WIN
1. Winx ($1.15) — 93.3%
2. Royal Symphony ($15) — 0.9%
3. Kaspersky ($81) — 0.5%
4. Gailo Chop ($19) — 0.4%
5. Humidor ($19) — 0.4%
BEST BACKED FOR THE PLACE
1. Royal Symphony ($2) — 7.8%
2. Kaspersky ($6.20) — 5.8%
3. Gailo Chop ($2.20) — 5.7%
4. Folkswood ($2.30) — 4.9%
5. Happy Clapper ($2.60) — 4.4%
*percentage figures include horses that didn’t make the final field
SHORTEST PRICED COX PLATE WINNERS
$1.07 Phar Lap in 1931
$1.14 Phar Lap in 1930
$1.17 Tobin Bronze in 1967
$1.33 Beau Vite in 1941
$1.50 Ajax in 1938
$1.50 So You Think in 2010
$1.67 Kingston Town in 1981
$1.72 Red Anchor in 1984
$1.72 Might and Power in 1998
Skybird stuns in Lightning upset to prove doubters wrong
Trainer Mitch Freedman knew his unfancied outsider Skybird would be up for the challenge in the Group 1 Lightning Stakes as she became the longest-priced winner of the race.
Sepals earns chance at Group 1 ‘deep end’
Sepals has emerged as an Australian Guineas contender after progressing from a Sale maiden win to an “impressive” Group 3 victory in the CS Hayes at Flemington.