Preliminary final formguide: Early word on Cats-Hawks and Pies-Lions blockbusters
There are three Victorian and one Queensland side vying for the chance to lift the premiership cup in a fortnight. Can the challengers knock the Pies and Cats off? We preview the prelims.
After two high-stakes semi-finals we’re locked in to the final three games of the season — three MCG blockbusters.
Two will happen next weekend, as the Cats hosts the Hawks to re-spark their massive rivalry on Friday, while the Pies will host Brisbane on Saturday.
One of those teams will be lifting the premiership cup in two weeks.
Here’s out early look at the preliminary final blockbusters.
CATS
WELL-TIMED RUN
Geelong, as usual, has timed its run to perfection this year. Armed with 41 of 44 players available to choose from, it is possibly the healthiest list going into a preliminary final ever seen. Only Toby Conway and Jake Kolodjashnij are no chance to play against the Hawks, while Rhys Stanley will be given every opportunity to prove his fitness but is more likely at least a week away.
But that hasn’t been the case all year – with careful load management of stars Bailey Smith, Patrick Dangerfield, Tom Stewart and Mark Blicavs, as well as a long build into September for recruit Jack Martin, the senior stars are primed for the business end of the season.
KING CAMERON
He’s been the best forward this year, but Jeremy Cameron’s recent patch of form is a far cry from his dominating best. Maybe, as Brad Close said during the week, his teammates are targeting him too much to try to get him to the 100-goal milestone. Or maybe he’s just going through an inaccurate patch. But in the past four games he has kicked 13 behinds – one third of his season total of 39.
He’s had a fair number of complete misses as well. But Geelong isn’t suffering; winning each of its past seven games and scoring at 100-plus points, for an average of 121.6 per game, in all of them. His partner-in-crime, Shannon Neale, has been the biggest beneficiary of the attention Cameron gets – he’s kicked 15.4 in the past five games.
INSTANT CLASSIC COMING UP
It’s been a while since AFL fans have been treated to a Geelong versus Hawthorn final – with the last coming back in 2016. But it’s almost always a classic: that night was Isaac Smith missing a shot after the siren to win it, before he defected and made the move down the highway.
They faced off in the 2014 qualifying final, the 2013 preliminary final (hearse for the curse), and the 2011 qualifying final. And of course the 2008 grand final. In more recent times, Geelong has enjoyed the wood over Hawthorn, winning the last four matches and six of the last seven clashes. Round 6 this year was another thriller, with the Cats triumphing by seven points in another Easter Monday classic.
INJURY LIST
Rhys Stanley (hamstring) test, Jake Kolodjashnij (hip) season, Toby Conway (foot) season
HAWKS
NO STAR POWER? NO WORRIES
Maybe in the years to come Hawthorn will boast A+ grade players in its midfield mix. But until then, their host of honest workers at the coal face will do just fine for now. Jai Newcombe is a blue-chip player but is surrounded by Josh Ward – who did his best Zach Merrett impersonation on Friday – James Worpel, Connor Nash and a smattering of moments from forwards Dylan Moore, Sam Butler and Nick Watson.
Will Day is Hawthorn’s most influential stoppage expert but his absence hasn’t been noticed at all, albeit against a weaker Crows midfield unit. Geelong’s Max Holmes and Bailey Smith pose a more dangerous threat, and the Cats are well rounded by hard nut Tom Atkins and creative Gryan Miers.
FORWARD FAULTING
The Hawks have found the answer – four key forwards is not going to work in September, but three is where the magic happens. But one of the three needed for the system to work, Calsher Dear, is racing to be fit for the preliminary final. The system is based on speed and pressure leading to turnover, and that includes keeping the ball inside forward 50.
Mabior Chol and Dear have enough mobility to hunt the ball when it hits the deck, the small forwards offer plenty of zip around the contest, and Jack Gunston is a smart footballer who is always in the right spots. But Mitch Lewis struggled to impact again as the deepest forward. He doesn’t chop out in the ruck, he can’t chase and offer pressure, and his marking and kicking isn’t there at the moment. He is coming off an ACL injury, but he is yet to be a dangerous target up forward this year.
WEDDLE THE WINGER
There were never any questions about whether Weddle was in the best side when he recovered from his injury. But there were questions about how they would use him, considering the back line had Tom Barrass, Josh Battle, James Sicily and Jack Scrimshaw already patrolling the skies. The worry was Weddle would make them too tall as the fifth player that stood 190cm+.
But Sam Mitchell saw a Harry Morrison-sized hole on the wing and opted to play Weddle in the position. He had 15 touches and seven marks, flying against a direct opponent that was always too small for him and drifting forward to be damaging in front of goal, kicking 1.3. It’s the natural first step for the athletic tall to turn into a midfielder, but he’s one of the AFL’s best Swiss army knives.
INJURY LIST
Jack Ginnivan (hamstring) test, Noah Mraz (knee) test, Calsher Dear (hamstring) test, Will Day (foot) season, Finn Maginness (kidney) season, Harry Morrison (quad) season
PIES
PEAKING AT THE RIGHT TIME
Turned over some pretty miserable late-season form to come out and fire against the Crows. Collingwood was absolutely scintillating in the third term especially, putting the game to bed before cruising to a four-goal win. The pressure on opposition ball carriers, the same method that helped them to a flag in 2023, was right back and turned all the way up. At their best the Magpies are one of the AFL’s most dangerous teams on the turnover, and now they get a home preliminary final at the MCG.
WAITING IN THE WINGS
It’ll be the biggest selection question muttered all week within the meeting rooms at Collingwood: “What do we do with Bobby Hill?” The Norm Smith medallist has battled through a rough second half of 2025, but he’s a big-game player that has serious X-factor. Hill has barely played recently, but he booted four goals in a practice match last week and has put his hand up for selection.
The forward line wasn’t overly dangerous against Adelaide outside of Jamie Elliott, with only Patrick Lipinski the recognised forward with a goal to his name. Roan Steele is shaping to be the man to miss out if the Pies opt to go with Hill, while Jeremy Howe is more unlikely than likely to return from injury.
CAN PIES FLIP THE SCRIPT?
Collingwood suffered defeat the last time the Pies faced the Lions – however it was right in the middle of their rough patch of form to end the season. It was a pretty even first half but the Lions pulled away in the second half, dominating in the clinches at the MCG. A third-quarter clearance masterclass from Lachie Neale, Hugh McCluggage, Josh Dunkley and Will Ashcroft set up the win. But while there will be no Neale this time round, Craig McRae’s side will need to limit the Lions’ inside production after losing the clearances by 17.
INJURIES
Jeremy Howe (groin) test, Reef McInnes (knee) season, Harvey Harrison (knee) season, Tew Jiath (quad) season, Jakob Ryan (foot) season, Iliro Smit (foot) season, Lachie Sullivan (knee) season
LIONS
MCCLUGGAGE BOUNCES BACK
Oisin Mullin had his number at the MCG the week before, but Hugh McCluggage wasn’t going to have two quiet ones in a row. The All-Australian racked up 33 disposals, ten clearances, six inside-50s and a goal assist against the Suns in a fantastic showing. Collingwood don’t typically run a tag, but given what we have seen in two very different finals for Mccluggage, they have to have a plan to shut him down.
ROCK DOWN BACK
Harris Andrews is a man on a mission. Not content with being the general and interceptor, he’s stood up this season in the absence of Jack Payne and shut down the No. 1 forward. After Ben King kicked two early goals on Darcy Gardiner, Fagan switched the magnets and put his skipper onto the new all-time goalkicking leader for the Suns — and we didn’t hear from him after that. You’d hate to be Tim Membrey next weekend.
INJURIES
Noah Answerth (achilles) season, Keidean Coleman (quad) season, Tom Doedee (wrist) season, Eric Hipwood (calf) season, LincolnMcCarthy (knee) season, Lachie Neale (calf) season, Jack Payne (knee) season.
Originally published as Preliminary final formguide: Early word on Cats-Hawks and Pies-Lions blockbusters
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