NRL 2016: The time is now for Ricky Stuart’s Raiders to make a finals charge
PERPETUALLY out of sight and out of mind, is 2016 the year the Raiders will make the NRL take notice?
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THE Raiders are the only team in NRL history to have never played in a preliminary final.
Yes, NRL history only stretches back to 1998 and yes, before that the Raiders had a golden run of finals appearances, highlighted by three premierships in 1989, 1990 and 1994.
But since 1998 they have not made a preliminary final and they are the only active team never to do so since the reunification.
They’ve come close, making the second week of the finals in 2000, 2003, 2010 and 2012, but they’ve never made it to the penultimate game of the season.
It might be strange to be talking about preliminary finals and premierships for a team that didn’t make the finals last season, but Canberra have quietly put together one of the most well-rounded rosters in the NRL, doing so in typically unorthodox fashion, and if not for some unfortunate results in close matches last season they could have been a real finals force.
Perhaps not a premiership team and it remains to be seen if they can be one this season, but a team that made people check twice at the very least.
Again, that might sound presumptuous or even downright crazy, but consider that they lost nine matches by 12 points or less last season and that five of those defeats were by four points or less. If they had won two of those games, they would have made the top eight. If they won four, they’d have been in contention for the top four.
The causes of these losses were eerily similar. Their defence was always leaky but they developed an awful habit of collapsing at the absolute worst possible times.
Take the loss against Manly in Round 23, for instance, a defeat that all but ended their finals hopes. After managing to claw their way into a 24-20 lead after trailing 16-2, they were a minute away from victory when an ineffective tackle for Jarrad Kennedy led to a quick interchange of passing that saw Brett Stewart score under the posts.
Or against the Sharks in Round 19, where Joey Leilua made an awful defensive read in golden point that led to a line break by Ricky Leutele, which in turn led to the game-winning field goal by Valentine Holmes.
Little moments like that slowly cut the Raiders to pieces in 2015 as the team’s decision-making, kicking game and defensive resolve tore them apart one agonising defeat at a time.
The questions about decision making and kicking game should be rectified. The spine, which includes Jack Wighton, Blake Austin and the clever Josh Hodgson, has been boosted by the arrival of Aidan Sezer. Sam Williams did a fine job as Raiders halfback last season but Sezer has a kicking game, class and poise that is rare among NRL halves and has been the league’s best-kept secret since debuting for the Titans in 2012.
He complements the high-speed insanity of Austin perfectly while Hodgson and Wighton will benefit enormously from having a full NRL season under their belts. Canberra’s spine might be light on big-game experience but they have the talent to make a difference in any given game.
Their forwards can rock it with the best with Paul Vaughan, Shannon Boyd, Sia Soliola and Josh Papalii all capable of bringing the pain. Shaun Fensom’s tackle count expands faster than the known universe. Elliot Whitehead scored a double in England’s series-clinching victory over New Zealand and made the Super League team of the year in 2014.
Their front-row depth might be a little thin but the anticipated arrival of Joseph Tapine from Newcastle gives Stuart additional options in the middle of the park.
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Of course, this could all go horribly wrong. The Raiders backline, while potent, has shown a worrying fragility in defence for several seasons. Jarrod Croker is an excellent and clinical attacking centre, but he’s still got some bad defensive reads in him. Joey Leilua can ruin the day for either team at a moment’s notice. Sisa Waqa is equally thrilling and heart-attack inducing.
Ricky Stuart is about to begin his third season in Canberra and this squad is definitely his — he’s picked the players, trimmed the fat and has turned this team into what he wants it to be. They have the talent and the raw attacking skill to go far in this competition but their defence could completely torpedo them at any time without warning. Predicting just how they’ll do is near impossible, but they have the squad to do something.
The New Blood
Sezer and Whitehead are the two main new recruits and both will play a big part in Ricky Stuart’s plans.
Adam Clydesdale, who joins from Newcastle, and Jeff Lima, who returns to the NRL after two seasons with Catalans, will likely act as back-ups unless injury strikes. Joseph Tapine was released by Newcastle and is anticipated to join the club before the season begins.
The Player Under Pressure
Frank-Paul Nu’uausala was Stuart’s sole misstep in the 2013-14 off season. The former New Zealand representative had a couple of good moments but for the most part he was slow, lethargic and prone to foolish penalties. Off contract at the end of the season and on the wrong side of 30, Nu’uausala must lift his output if he’s to continue in the NRL beyond this season.
Best-Case Scenario
Canberra makes the top four after a string of thrilling victories. Blake Austin’s goatee is declared a national treasure. Josh Hodgson is knighted. Shaun Fensom is selected for Country.
Worst-Case Scenario
The defence still leaks points and the team’s awful record in close games continues. Josh Hodgson and Jarrod Croker leave the club for Brisbane, citing homesickness. It is revealed that Shaun Fensom is actually a robot sent from the future and retires to pursue his true purpose — protecting John Connor.
Prediction
It’s time for the Raiders to ride or die with the squad Stuart has put together and apart from some question marks on their front-row depth they look very formidable from top to bottom. A top-four berth might be beyond them this season unless they fix their defence but if their attack fires they’ll be able to outscore most teams, even if it’s in 42-40 shootouts. The top eight should be the minimum goal for 2016.
Originally published as NRL 2016: The time is now for Ricky Stuart’s Raiders to make a finals charge
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