SuperCoach Plus: The stats that will make or break your round
KFC SuperCoach just crowned a new all-time best weekly scorer in Nathan Cleary, but we also have to shine light on the lows.
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Is Nicho Hynes a trade, Adam Doueihi a trap?
Wilfred Zee and Rob Sutherland answer these and more questions while also taking time to acknowledge an all-time great, and an all-time flop in KFC SuperCoach NRL.
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1. IS THERE BENEFIT IN HYNES-SIGHT?
While near enough 60% of KFC SuperCoaches were cheering on Nathan Cleary as he powered his way to a new record score last week less than 8% of players were already basking in the glow of a Nicho Hynes 182 point masterclass.
That Hynes ownership number is changing fast, I would argue, for good reason.
His numbers are outstanding, in the five games Hynes has started this year he has scored 53, 98, 69, 96 and 182 for an average of 99.6PPG.
And his opposition, a heavily depleted Raiders outfit, has conceded an average of 27PPG over the past five weeks while the red-hot Storm attack has scored an average of 39. PPG in that time.
And fullbacks, in particular, are enjoying their matches against the Raiders. In the past five games fullbacks have scored 76 (DWZ), 107 (Ponga), 89 (Walker) 97 (Holmes) and 103 (Gutho) SuperCoach points against Canberra for an average of 94.4PPG.
Regular fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen (HIA) is once again sidelined so it is at fullback that Hynes will line up on Saturday night; big points look all but assured for Hynes this week.
And that Papenhuyzen blow was a big one, and came late in the round on 16 May. Conversely the Storm’s game in round 12 is the first game of the round, against the Broncos, on 27 May.
No offence to the Broncos but I don’t think Melbourne have that game circled in red as ‘tough – must be at full strength’. The star Melbourne fullback was rested for three weeks earlier this year as he dealt with a shoulder issue I fully expect them to be cautious with his return this time too. And then the NSW Blues will almost certainly come calling with Papenhuyzen all but certain to be selected as a bench injection for Origin 1.
I think it fair to bet that Hynes plays fullback at Melbourne for at least the next three weeks.
Let’s assume that forecast comes to fruition and look at the numbers that fullbacks have put up against the two teams that the Storm play in Rounds 12 and 13.
As mentioned, Round 12 it’s the Broncos. In the past five rounds the Broncos have conceded the following scores to fullbacks: 119 points (Tom Trbojevic in 69 minutes), 50 points (Holmes), 91 points (Brimson), 124 points (Gutherson) and 39 points (a stand in Stephen Crichton) for an average of 85PPG.
Round 13 it’s the Titans and in their past five rounds they have conceded the following scores to fullbacks: 91 points (Edwards), 29 points (Laurie), 156 points (Isaako), 94 points (Alex Johnston) and 116 points (Tom Trbojevic in 72 minutes) for an average of 97.2PPG
If I haven’t lost you yet let me bring all those numbers together. In Nicho Hynes you have a player who is averaging 99.6PPG as a starter. There is a strong chance he starts the next three games (at least) and those three opponents are conceding averages of 94.4, 85 and 97.2PPG to his position.
Forget that others got Hynes at a discount to you and hop on!
2. TAKE A BOW, NATHAN CLEARY
We have to start here, with his 225 now topping the list by a comfortable margin as the highest official KFC SuperCoach score. The stats in this score are just mind-boggling – three tries, two try assists, one try contribution, three line breaks, two line break assists, two forced dropouts, nine tackle busts, an effective offload, 17 points (net) in tackles, 19 points from 11 runs and a perfect eight goals from eight attempts (with several sideline conversions in there too). All with just the single error and two missed tackles. I have no words – Nathan Cleary, take a bow you absolute KFC SuperCoach stud!
3. THE HALL OF SHAME
From the penthouse to the doghouse, as much as we celebrate the highs of KFC SuperCoach, we also have to shine the light onto the lows too. Some all-time lows, in fact, with two of this week’s scores now joining the “top” five lowest official KFC SuperCoach scores. Herman Ese’ese dropped -11 on his way to the second worst score ever, and Tyrell Fuimaono’s -8 sees him join this ‘illustrious’ group that includes two other send-offs in Adam Blair and Glenn Stewart (yes, at the same time, the famous ‘Battle of Brookie’ from 2011!) but the most mind-blowing stat is that the lowest official KFC SuperCoach score of all time DIDN’T feature a send-off! Just Trent Hodkinson playing 29 minutes, missing two goals, missing two tackles (after making eight) but then conceding three penalties on his way to getting sinbinnned! -12 doesn’t even seem all that bad, considering all those negative stats!
4. ADAM DOUEIHI – TRAP OR NOT?
Plenty of KFC SuperCoaches were interested after his breakout 141 last week, but the unexpected (but potentially genius?!?!) shift to right centre still delivered an impressive KFC SuperCoach score of 114 this week. However, two tries, a try assist and a line break were included in this strong score, as well as six goals from seven attempts. For context, in six of their ten games this year, the Tigers have scored three or less tries which means the goalkicking floor is closer to 8-10 points per week as opposed to 16-20 points per week. His past game history at centre is also limited, with scores of 22, 27, 35 and 104 (again with two tries in there) in his four games at centre in the past two seasons prior to this round. He could definitely score well moving forward but at $664,400, he is an expensive risk to take! My two cents – he’s a trap at that price!
5. ‘A GAME OF TWO HALVES’
One of the most cliche expressions in rugby league (and plenty of other ball sports too) but this actually describes Jason Saab’s season so far – a first five games averaging 22 points per game (with one try and two line breaks in there!); a second five games averaging 65.8 points per game (with nine tries, one try assist and five line breaks)! No prizes for guessing what happened from Round 6 onwards either. It is simply amazing the impact one Tom Trbojevic has had, turning Jason from a rusty ol’ Saab into a turbocharged brand new Ferrari!
6. DALLIN WATENE-ZELEZNIAK IS PUTTING UP SOME NUMBERS
This one sounds weird – trust me, I know! – but DWZ is flying under the radar big-time. Yes he’s missed a few games but when he’s played 80 minutes, he’s currently averaging 66.2 points per game, with 46.7 points per game coming from his base and base attack stats (elite numbers!). That comes from a mixture of fullback and wing, with the wing providing more attacking stats but the fullback spot sees his base and base attack jump up to 50.5 points per game (from four games, so small sample size). This is just a ‘keep an eye on him’ lesson given the Bulldogs don’t cover Round 13, but he could be in interesting prospect for Round 17 coverage and the run home as a high floor, fifth or sixth CTW option that could be played on match-ups.
7. JAI ARROW JUST NEEDS MINUTES
It was a sad day when we learned that Arrow was heading to the Rabbitohs, not because he wasn’t a good player but because it meant his KFC SuperCoach opportunity was going to be limited, stuck behind Cam Murray and basically with no clear path to minutes, his ceiling was capped. Surprisingly, even with Murray injured, we’ve seen only a slight uptick in minutes for Arrow but it’s still nowhere near enough. Arrow is averaging 43.4 minutes per game on the season, scoring an average of 54.1 points per game – that’s a PPM (points per minute) of 1.24! Elite scoring and workrate, which is exactly what we’re used to from Arrow – he just needs some minutes, Wayne!
8. THE CURIOUS CASE OF JAMES TEDESCO
It seems weird that someone who, in his 80 minute games, has averaged 87.9 points per game across eight games, is viewed as a KFC SuperCoach disappointment, but it’s 2021 and here we are. Teddy hasn’t really hit the heights of his 2020 season but he has still be putting out strong numbers each week. There was a time where things looked shaky – Sam Walker taking over from Luke Keary definitely had an impact, but the major concern was Tedesco’s own involvement dropped, with less runs and this was all before the head knock which really cruelled his season average for owners. We saw his runs sharply increase again though, with 17 runs again after just nine and seven in the past two 80 minute games for Teddy. If Teddy’s back to his usual best though, then the Broncos are going to be in for a world of pain this week!
9. REECE WALSH SHOWCASES HIS ATTACKING ABILITY
Not many NRL players are able to rack up 100 KFC SuperCoach points in a single game, let alone doing it in just 45 minutes. Walsh looks like he will be special, and showcased it with a sublime try, three line breaks, one line break assist and also a forced dropout for good measure. As with all things KFC SuperCoach, your ability to attack is far more important than your ability to defend and aside from Walsh’s obvious defensive deficiencies, his ability to spark attack out of nothing will see him be an intriguing KFC SuperCoach option once he nails down an 80 minute starting spot. One to watch, if not later this season then next year onwards!
10. JAMES FISHER-HARRIS IS BUBBLING ALONG NICELY
We know JFH is a great NRL player, and has stamped himself as one of the premier props in the game over the past two seasons. For KFC SuperCoach, he sits as the second highest overall points in the FRF position, and just behind the second highest averaging FRF with 68 points per game (0.2 points per game behind Luke Thompson!). While the minutes are hard to predict in this stacked Panthers pack, JFH seems to have settled comfortably at around 51 minutes per game, give or take a few each week, with a strong workrate and scoring at around 60 points per game in base and base attack stats. The important thing for overall players is their season-long average once they’re in your team (unless you’re captaining them for some reason) so the reality here is that if JFH will just keep on keeping on at his current rate, he’ll be a solid second or third FRF option for the season, with Round 13 bye coverage and also dual position flexibility. His price is taking off again with back to back strong scores, but he’s still affordable so jump aboard if keen!
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Originally published as SuperCoach Plus: The stats that will make or break your round
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