SuperCoach Plus Article: The stats you want to know ahead of round 13

The first bye of the 2021 season is upon us, Wilfred Zee and Rob Sutherland delve deep into the database to help you make the most of it.

Do you want the one and done cheapie or the guy who might stick around? Which veteran has turned back time and which managed the rare feat of stinking it up on the paddock but not on the SuperCoach scoresheet.

Wilfred Zee and Rob Sutherland answer these questions and more for SuperCoach Plus subscribers ahead of the round 13 bye.

Watch The 2021 NRL Telstra Premiership Live & On-Demand with No Ad-Breaks During Play. New to Kayo? Try 14-Days Free Now >

Is Dean Ieremia a dream cheapie for round 13?

1. BEST BYE BUY: THE ‘ONE AND DONE’ V POTENTIAL ‘AE NIGHTMARE’

Those looking for a bargain CTW who plays this round will no doubt have noticed two names with green dots who are available at the cheapest of cheap prices $173,700. If you haven’t then let me save you a search they are Melbourne Storm winger Dean Ieremia and Parramatta’s Haze Dunster.

Both have been named to start this week and both have appeal for different reasons.

Ieremia has played two games this year. He started in round eight playing the full 80 minutes at wing in a game which George Jennings missed due to concussion injury and 15 minutes off the bench in round 10 – coming on to the field as 18th man as a result of Ryan Papenhuyzen being knocked out by Tyrell Fuimaono of the Dragons.

Named to start this week due to the Storm missing regular starting winger Josh Addo-Carr (Origin) and 2020 Grand Final winning centre Brenko Lee (calf – round 14) Ieremia profiles as a player who, barring further injuries at the Storm will play this bye and then not be seen again in the NRL.

Haze Dunster of the Eels is tackled during the NRL Semi Final match between the Parramatta Eels and the South Sydney Rabbitohs at Bankwest Stadium on October 10, 2020 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

Dunster, has also played two games this year, both off the bench, playing 11 minutes in round eight and four minutes in round nine. Those aren’t exciting numbers, but Dunster hasn’t just been named to start this week as a result of injuries/Origin selection. Rather, the Kiwi flyer has beaten Blake Ferguson to the side on form; the same Blake Ferguson who was seemingly on the verge of Origin selection.

And if you want some exciting numbers you need to look no further than Dunster’s NSW Cup figures from this year. In eight games for the Eels, Dunster has scored seven tries, four linebreaks, 26 tackle breaks and is averaging better than 150 metres and almost 20 ball receipts per game.

Dunster is far busier than Ieremia, he goes after the ball more and that’s good news for SuperCoach.

What, potentially, isn’t good news is that Dunster has won his job on merit. And while he’s a busy beaver in NSW Cup, you need to be a major optimist to think he’s going to be anything but a potential AE Nightmare (for those new to the game, an ‘AE Nightmare’ is someone who sits on your bench and averages 20-30PPG thus making any VC loophole play extremely risky).

Ultimately I suppose your choice here will come down to whether you are an optimist or a pessimist. Do you bet to win or bet in a way designed to minimise losses?

If you are the bet to win type then Dunster is your guy. You’re backing him to not only retain his job in front of Fergo but to flourish and bag a couple of tries in the next three or four rounds making a quickfire 100K before you sell him/cash him in for round 17.

If you are a safety first you are picking Ieremia, hoping for a try this week against the Titans and then for him to disappear out of the squad.

2. TAKE A BOW, NICHO HYNES

With his 156 this past week, Hynes has become the first player to score over 130 KFC SuperCoach points in three consecutive rounds. What’s all the more impressive is that he isn’t a full-time starter at his club, but that is set to change in 2022 as he becomes a Shark. Hynes has also averaged 123.2 points per game since being given the chance to start due to injuries to other players, which is also why he has made over $600,000 in the past six weeks – mind-boggling numbers and it’s definitely bittersweet reading for those who held or traded in Ryan Papenhuyzen after his injury.

Anthony Milford stunk it up on the field and still ended up with a decent SuperCoach score. Picture: Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images

3. THE DIVIDE BETWEEN NRL ABILITY AND KFC SUPERCOACH SCORING

It’s a common misconception that seems to arise from time to time – that someone who scores well in SuperCoach points is a better NRL player than someone who doesn’t score as well; the opposite scenario applies too although it’s usually much easier to highlight numerous players who were never ideal for KFC SuperCoach but are all-time greats (Cooper Cronk and Darren Lockyer spring to mind). But if there was ever an example of a game where the on-field performance didn’t match the KFC SuperCoach score, it’s Anthony Milford’s score of 47 this week. His performance saw him dropped, it was that bad, but the score included a try assist, a forced dropout, multiple offloads and no errors – only in that his wayward passes didn’t attract an error because his teammates covered for him. How the mighty have fallen …

Valentine Holmes is making a case for being a CTW keeper. Picture: Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images

4. VAL HOLMES HAS PUT UP A PERSUASIVE CASE TO BE TOP CTW BY END OF SEASON

Holmes will play Origin for Queensland this week and almost guaranteed to play Origin in Round 17 so he won’t help with any bye coverage, but since taking over in as the Cowboys’ custodian in Round 3, he has averaged 79.5 points per game and has increased almost $170,000 on his starting price. Also, as the primary goalkicker, he has averaged 11 points per game as a boost to his average. Combined with his base and base attack stats, Holmes’ floor sits at 48.3 points per game at fullback, elite numbers and he is a prime option for our CTW line-ups for those of us who don’t have him in our teams yet.

Ben Hunt’s Origin pain could be SuperCoaches’ gain. Picture: Mark Kolbe/Getty Images

5. BEN HUNT MUST BE HURTING

Hunt has always performed well for the Maroons in the Origin arena and he must be hurting from his exclusion from the side this year, especially as he has been having one of the best seasons for the Dragons, especially at halfback. Taking out the game that he played through despite having a broken leg, Hunt has averaged 68.1 points per game in the other seven games this year, and has been very consistent with the majority of his scores sitting at 55 and above. With an upcoming draw of the Broncos, Bulldogs, Raiders and the Warriors, Hunt could go on a very nice run and his dual position status can be very helpful for future trade purposes.

6. SPENCER LENIU IS A PPM MACHINE

Plenty of KFC SuperCoaches started with Spencer, but limited game time has hindered his chances of making big money. However, it’s about points more so than money this year, as there have been plenty of money-making opportunities elsewhere. Leniu has averaged just 24.6 minutes per game this season, but has managed to average 34.1 points per game – a PPM (points per minute) of 1.4, which is just elite. Things have fallen into place for Spencer, with a starting spot and a depleted pack, and big minutes on offer this week. He could viably play up to 45 or 50 minutes, which if he can maintain his PPM he could deliver a solid 60+ score for the faithful KFC SuperCoaches who held strong!

Dane Gagai and Cody Walker had a day out last week. Picture: Jason McCawley/Getty Images

7. LEFT SIDE, STRONG SIDE RETURNS!

It’s been a while coming but we saw the left edge of the Rabbitohs reunite in full, with Cody Walker back at five eighth, Keaon Koloamatangi, Dane Gagai, Alex Johnston and Latrell Mitchell sweeping around, it’s hard for most teams to defend against that potent attacking edge, but we saw this week what happens when poor defence was exploited. 154, 149, 83, 73 and 68 – a total of 527 KFC SuperCoach points – was the result of this week’s attacking raids. While the Rabbitohs won’t play this bye round, they will cover Round 17 and the upcoming draw is very friendly, so expect plenty of Rabbitohs to be of interest in the coming rounds.

8. SUAALII’S ON

It’s two games into the career of the most-hyped 17 year old for a long time, and he’s been solid but not particularly outstanding … yet. The physical presence is there, the composure is there, and you can tell something is about to explode. It just hasn’t happened yet. For KFC SuperCoach, he will be primed for a downgrade target in the coming rounds, if not as soon as Round 14, pending on whether he will be able to start again. There is a valid argument that a Sam Walker/Joey Manu halves combination with Suaalii at right centre is a stronger overall combination than the halves options the Roosters have used previously – however Trent Robinson is more than aware of not putting too much pressure and expectation on the young rookies and that will no doubt be at the forefront of his mind in coming weeks.

Shaun Johnson is back baby! Picture: Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images

9. WELCOME BACK, SJ

I’m an unabashed Shaun Johnson fanboy and I strongly believe that the NRL is a better place when SJ is playing footy. He clearly still has plenty to offer, despite the ageing body, and he has had the smarts to develop his game to be less reliant on his explosive speed off the mark, his athleticism and other physical attributes, and more on his experience, vision and using his teammates more. While less desirable for KFC SuperCoach (it’s always better for the player to score himself, rather than set up a teammate!), he still has a lot of SuperCoach relevance and SJ again looks like a promising option that covers Round 17.

Karl Lawton of Manly celebrates his try during the round 11 NRL match between the Parramatta Eels and the Manly Sea Eagles. Picture: Mark Evans/Getty Images

10. KARL LAWTON LOOKS TEMPTING …

With scores of 58 in 47 minutes and 89 in 73 minutes, playing in the backrow, Lawton now has a break-even of -22 at just $341,100 and available at both 2RF and HOK – so … jump on, right? It’s not quite that simple, given he is currently getting to play that position due to injuries to Foran, Schuster and Sironen. With the return of at least one, if not two of that trio imminent (potentially as soon as Round 14), it muddies the waters and could see Lawton’s role reduced to being a bench utility given his ability to play hooker, backrow and even centre at a pinch. The other issue with Lawton is his injury history, it’s certainly something that’s been a long-term issue for the talented youngster! I’m not saying he’s a trap, but he’s not the clear-cut purchase that he appears on the surface.

Mitch Barnett of the Knights just needs time to show what he can do. Picture: Ashley Feder/Getty Images

11. MITCH BARNETT IS FINE AT LOCK PROVIDED …

… he gets the minutes. Sure, it’s better to be playing 80 minutes on the edge, especially the left side, but Barnett is perfectly fine in the #13 jersey, as long as he spends more than the 44, 47 and 42 minutes he played the previous three weeks on the paddock. In fact, in his first game playing 55 minutes at lock, Barnett delivered a perfectly serviceable 65 points, with all but four points coming from base and base attack stats (and he kicked one goal for those four points). Just give the man some minutes, Adam!

Originally published as SuperCoach Plus Article: The stats you want to know ahead of round 13