State of Origin back-up rater: Which NSW and Qld players will play round 17

To hold or not to hold Origin players that is the question many a SuperCoach is dealing with this week – former champion Wilfred Zee is here to help you make the right decision.

Origin stars – they’re some of the best players in the NRL, and more importantly they feature heavily amongst the highest averaging NRL SuperCoach players as well with over half of the top 20 averaging players either Origin incumbents or highly likely Origin hopefuls.

For this reason, to hold or not to hold amongst the Origin class is the pertinent question. We’ve done the deepest of dives for you to make your own decisions in this regard.

ORIGIN 2 BACK-UP RATER – MOST LIKELY TO LEAST LIKELY

Valentine Holmes ($721,000; 24% rostered)

Val has quickly cemented himself as one of the ‘ironmen’ of the Origin back-up arena, now having backed up on 13 out of 14 opportunities (noting three of those games were Sunday Origins for Game 2 of those series), with his sole game not backing up coming from a two day turnaround.

The Cowboys have a four day turnaround for their date with the Panthers in Penrith in Round 17, and given Holmes’ importance to the team, he is expected to back up with the four day turnaround.

Likelihood of backing up – 90%

Valentine Holmes is expected to backup for the Cowboys. Picture: Getty Images

Reece Robson ($597,800; 11% rostered)

Robson was one of the Blues’ best on ground in Origin 1 and he will be expected to shoulder another monster workload, although this time Michael Maguire has the option of giving Robson a breather with the selection of now-starting hooker for the Roosters in Connor Watson.

Robson was a surprise omission from Round 14 teams due to an injury he picked up in Origin 1, ruining his perfect two from two start to his Origin back-up career, but the Cowboys are on the outside of the top eight looking in and with the Panthers waiting for them in Penrith in Round 17, Robson will be expected to back-up for the Cowboys, health permitting.

Likelihood of backing up – 90%

Tom Dearden ($545,800; 12% rostered)

Dearden now has two Origin games in the bank, and after backing up this time around he is one from two (although you could forgive him for not backing up on a two day turnaround after his first Origin game, when he contributed successfully to a series win so it would be reasonable to assume the celebrations would have carried on long and hard after that victory) on backing up from Origin. As above, with the Cowboys in their current position on the ladder, expect Dearden to back up if possible.

Likelihood of backing up – 90%

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow ($604,900; 10% rostered)

One could argue that the Hammer was a bit unlucky not to be named Player of the Match in Origin 1 given his incredible performance, shifting to fullback after the unfortunate injury to Reece Walsh. His good form continued for the Dolphins as well scoring one of the best tries of the season last round.

Tabuai-Fidow had the bye in Round 14, but previously has backed up on three out of four opportunities, with the one time he did not back up being a three day turnaround after Game 1 in 2023. That said, he backed up on three day turnarounds on two other occasions, and a four day turnaround for the other time.

The Dolphins have the best bye coverage in the NRL this season; however this means the schedule for their representative stars is less favourable, as the Hammer will miss (at a bare minimum) Rounds 13, 14, 16, 18 (the Dolphins second bye for the season) and Round 19, and will be backing up for Rounds 17 and 19. Given the Round 18 bye though, the Hammer will probably push to play Round 17 off the back of a four day turnaround, knowing that he’ll get a week off the following round.

Likelihood of backing up – 90%

Payne Haas ($707,500; 16% rostered)

Haas looked the healthiest he has looked for a long time this week just gone, and it might be that the niggling knee issue is behind him, and the Broncos will need him more than ever.

Haas has backed up nine times out of nine opportunities: four times after a three day turnaround, three times on a four day turnaround, once after a six day and once after a seven day turnaround. Barring injury, Haas has effectively backed up at every opportunity so it appears very likely that he will be running out for the Broncos in Round 17, despite the three day turnaround and a trip to New Zealand.

Likelihood of backing up – 90%

Patrick Carrigan ($630,600; 16% rostered)

The Broncos are in free fall and while it’s not “crisis” time, they would dearly love a win to reverse their current losing streak and to stay in touch with the top eight. With Adam Reynolds still out of action, Captain Carrigan will have to back-up after Origin 2 despite the difficulty of navigating a three day turnaround including a trip across the ditch to face the Wahs. Barring injury, it’s hard to see Carrigan not backing up after this game, and his record of backing up now sits at five from seven.

Likelihood of backing up – 90%

WOLLONGONG, AUSTRALIA – JUNE 07: Zac Lomax of the Dragons celebrates after scoring a try during the round 14 NRL match between St George Illawarra Dragons and Wests Tigers at WIN Stadium on June 07, 2024, in Wollongong, Australia. (Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)

Zac Lomax ($676,400; 13% rostered)

Lomax had a fantastic Origin debut under extremely tough circumstances, but arguably his efforts to back up for the Dragons just 48 hours after said Origin debut could be even more impressive. After churning through 200+ metres in Origin, Lomax backed that up with another 150m for the Dragons with a cheeky hat trick thrown in, and perfect ten from ten from the kicking tee. The Dragons have a four day turnaround before their clash with the Dolphins at home, and with the Dragons fighting it out on the fringe of the top eight, their star winger is likely to back-up for this game.

Likelihood of backing up – 90%

Reuben Cotter ($570,300; 29% rostered)

Cotter has backed up on four out of five opportunities, with his one game not backing up being the two day turnaround after his mammoth 80 minute debut effort after Game 1 in 2022. He most recently backed up for the Cowboys on a three day turnaround after Origin 1, playing a massive 64 minutes despite a lopsided scoreline to their opponents. This one’s a confusing one as all signs pointed to Todd Payten most likely easing him back but as noted above, the Cowboys are fighting for post-regular season opportunity this year and as such, Cotter most likely will back up for the Cowboys, health permitting.

Likelihood of backing up – 75% but possibly off the bench/likely plays reduced minutes

Jeremiah Nanai ($633,000; 10% rostered)

Nanai has backed up on four occasions out of six, with the only two times he hasn’t backed up being on two day turnarounds. He has backed up on a three day, four day and six day turnarounds. With the Cowboys having depth in the backrow and the ongoing performances of Finefeuiaki and Luki, it could be likely that Nanai gets reduced minutes or comes off the bench again like in Round 14.

Likelihood of backing up – 75% but possibly off the bench/plays reduced minutes.

Angus Crichton is tipped to back up for the Roosters. Picture: Getty Images

Angus Crichton ($824,800; 22% rostered)

Angus had the week off after Origin 1 given the Round 14 bye for the Roosters, and to date he has backed up six times out of a possible eight opportunities, with both times he didn’t back up being 48 hour turnarounds. He has backed up three times on three day, once on four day, once on a five day and once on a seven day turnaround.

The Roosters have a three day turnaround for their Round 17 game, but with the Roosters still fighting for a top four spot, and with Angus in arguably career-best form, he has a high likelihood of backing up.

Likelihood of backing up – 75% but possibly off bench.

Stephen Crichton ($642,200; 6% rostered)

‘Critta’ was one of the unsung heroes in Origin 1 for the Blues, with his defensive prowess one of the few reasons the scoreline didn’t blow out more than it did despite playing a man down for the majority of the game. However he is far from unsung for what he has done at the Bulldogs as their captain and defensive rock in the centres, with few daring to believe that the Bulldogs would recover from their shocking start to the season to be a factor this year.

However, the Bulldogs sit sixth on the ladder and are currently undefeated at home, with a large part of that due to the influence of Crichton in that team. His history of backing up is not predictive given his role at the Bulldogs is far different to when he was at the Panthers, but he has backed up on three of six occasions when at the Panthers (twice on four day turnarounds, once on a five day turnaround, but also didn’t back on two four day turnarounds and one three day turnaround). As a Bulldog, he is one from one but it was a five day turnaround for that game.

For the reasons above and despite it being a 48 hour turnaround which Crichton has not experienced yet, he seems a good chance to back up for their Round 17 game, as no one knows more than he does how important he is to that team right now, and the Bulldogs are a genuine chance at playing in the post-season this year.

Likelihood of backing-up – 75%

Brian To’o ($776,900; 7% rostered)

‘Bizza’ has been the first winger picked by the Blues since his Origin debut in the 2021 series. Considering he has averaged 211 running metres per game in Origin across his nine games, while scoring four tries too, it’s easy to understand why.

His workrate is virtually unmatched and this gruelling punishment at the highest level of the game can make it harder for To’o to back up for his club. That said, with the injuries and suspensions that have impacted the Panthers this season, To’o may be called upon to back up as much as he can possibly handle.

To’o has backed up on six out of ten occasions, not backing up once on a two day turnaround, once on a three day turnaround and twice on four day turnarounds. He has backed up four times after four day turnarounds, and twice on five day turnarounds. The Panthers have been well-looked after by the NRL, with four day turnarounds after all three Origin games, and all three games also at the Panthers’ home ground.

Likelihood of backing-up – 75%

Mitch Moses ($688,300; 9% rostered)

Moses’s Origin debut was not a success, but it turned out to be one of the bravest Origin debuts ever after it was revealed that he had played over 70 minutes the game with a back fracture sustained in the opening ten minutes. This meant that backing up wasn’t an option and he went on to miss several games for the Eels.

He had a happier time backing up after his other two Origin appearances thus far, turning out for the Eels on three day and four day turnarounds respectively. He has a three day turnaround to play for the Eels in Round 17 this season, and with the Eels languishing in 15th on the ladder currently, they need him more than ever if they are going to have any hope of making the top eight (still possible given the number of rounds left in the season!). That said, he has already been ‘in the wars’ this season with a foot fracture and the Eels will be conscious not to overload him for fear of further injury.

Likelihood of backing up – 66%

Will the Broncos risk Walsh after Origin II? Picture: Getty Images

Reece Walsh ($718,400; 25% rostered)

Walsh has continued on his dynamic, explosiveness and high octane fullback play from last season for the Broncos, and his high risk, high reward play continues to electrify and frustrate fans in equal measure. At 21 he’s got time on his side but especially for the Maroons and Maroons fans, they will be hoping he can slow his brain and minimise his errors in the Origin arena, where mistakes are famously punished and capitalised upon with such small margin of error.

Walsh backed up after three days after Game 1 last year (scored 65), and four days after Game 2 (scored 22), before missing Game 3 due to his contrary conduct suspension.

The biggest issues for Walsh are twofold: his ongoing management of a knee issue, which has limited his training and even caused him to miss a game a few weeks ago; and his recent concussion woes after his short-lived Origin 1 courtesy of Joseph Suaali’i.

While all reports are that he is tracking well, he did exhibit some concussion symptoms in the immediate aftermath of Origin 1 which shows exactly why it is vital for the NRL to continue taking a hardline approach to player safety in the context of concussion. As noted above, the Broncos need their stars on the park, but with Tristan Sailor back now and improving health-wise each week himself, there is a genuine chance that Walsh will not rush back for the Broncos for Round 17.

Likelihood of backing up – 40%

Harry Grant ($639,000; 30% rostered)

Grant feels like he’s been playing Origin since forever, such has been his impact for Queensland. He’s played just eight Origin games though and has the benefit of sharing the demands of playing Origin at hooker with Ben Hunt.

Grant has backed up on every opportunity he has been able to (eight from eight) albeit at times playing off the bench for reduced minutes. That said, he has scored well off the bench, and then scored poorly playing the full 80 when backing up too. He has backed up after a three day turnaround on three occasions, and on four day turnarounds on five occasions.

Grant is faced with a three day turnaround but in Melbourne, which means no travel is required given Origin 2 will be played at the iconic Melbourne Cricket Ground, but the Storm are sitting top of the competition and entrenched in the top four, meaning the Storm have the luxury of giving Grant a rest if required. This one is a coin toss and there is every chance that whether or not he backs up will depend on whether the Maroons lock up this year’s Origin series with victory on Wednesday week (cue the celebrations) or whether or not the series will be heading up to Suncorp for the decider.

Likelihood of backing-up – 50%

Dylan Edwards ($943,600; 16% rostered)

Edwards’ hot form this year has seen him finally usurp one of the stalwarts of the Blues squad in their former captain James Tedesco, who has had a mini-resurgence in his own form in 2024. Edwards will have his chance to own that fullback jersey for the immediate future, and his low error and consistent gameplay will be a serious security blanket for the Blues. That he came back from his quad injury in Round 15, looking below his best, but was still immediately selected ahead of Tedesco, speaks to Maguire’s faith in Edwards.

After a false start for Origin 1, Edwards will be hoping he can stay injury-free and finally make his long-awaited and deserving Origin debut. Of course, as a debutant he has no history of backing up yet. However, Ivan Cleary has plenty of experience managing his representative players and they will be acutely aware of the need to manage their workloads and any niggling injuries – and given the quad injury Edwards is no doubt managing, it seems an unnecessary risk for Edwards to back up, especially given the feats of Daine Laurie deputising for him in Round 13 and 14 already.

Likelihood of backing-up – 25%

Players with the bye in Round 17 – Latrell Mitchell, Jake Trbojevic, Cam Murray, Haumole Olakau’atu, Daly Cherry Evans, Moeaki Fotuaika

Originally published as State of Origin back-up rater: Which NSW and Qld players will play round 17