KFC SuperCoach NRL 2021: Teams analysis Round 17

The final bye is here and KFC SuperCoaches are scrambling to even get close to a full 17. Tom Sangster reveals how to survive.

WINNERS

* Cody Walker - Missed out for the Blues despite the injuries to Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai and is therefore available for Souths this weekend in a massive boost for KFC SuperCoaches. Definite VC or C option this week in a good match-up against the Cowboys.

* Kodi Nikorima - The popular bye coverage Warrior was a late withdrawal last week due to an ankle injury but returns this round and provide crucial bye coverage.

* Taane Milne - Cheapie of the week and seventh most popular buy overall.

* Sam Walker - Named for the Roosters despite being rag dolled by the Storm last week, leading to rumours of resting. Crucial extra number for almost 30 per cent of KFC SuperCoaches.

* Reuben Garrick - Extremely popular buy yet again after averaging 103 since Tommy Turbo’s return in Round 6. Of course, Turbo won’t play this week due to Origin, meaning Garrick takes over at fullback. He scored 106 the last time he wore the No. 1 jersey (Round 14) and has averaged 74 over three career games in the position. That said, the $846,200 price tag is steep.

* Ryan James - An unexpected boost for KFC SuperCoaches after being named to return for Raiders with Josh Papalii (Origin) and Elliott Whitehead (shoulder) out. Plays his first game since Round 12 and while we aren’t expecting big minutes, the 30-odd extra points will be very handy for the 26 per cent who held.

* Addin Fonua-Blake, Shaun Johnson, Daniel Tupou - All popular buys this week and all potential keepers to the end of the season, even if they don’t make your 17 every week.

Reuben Garrick is popular once again (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)

LOSERS

* Tohu Harris - Huge blow for KFC SuperCoaches with the most popular buy since Round 14 ruled out for a month. Overall players with trades should consider selling as a POD option, but those running short will be forced to hold. He’s also a hold for head-to-head players.

* Joseph Suaalii - We were expecting him to be named with James Tedesco on Origin duty but Billy Smith was preferred at centre and Matt Ikuvalu preferred on the wing. However, Suaalii replaced Ikuvalu in a late swap last week so keep an eye on final teams.

* Bailey Simonsson - Another one bites the dust. The popular early-season cheapie is still owned by over 30 per cent but has been ruled out for 4-6 weeks due to an ankle injury. Sell.

SEA EAGLES V RAIDERS

Thursday 8 July, 4 Pines Park, 7:50pm

Sea Eagles: 1. Reuben Garrick, 2. Jason Saab, 3. Brad Parker, 4. Morgan Harper, 5. Moses Suli, 6. Kieran Foran, 7. Dylan Walker, 8. Taniela Paseka, 9. Lachlan Croker, 10. Martin Taupau, 11. Haumole Olakau’atu, 12. Karl Lawton, 13. Sean Keppie

Bench: 14. Cade Cust, 15. Ben Trbojevic, 16. Kurt De Luis, 17. Toaofoa Sipley

Reserves: 18. Jack Gosiewski, 19. Tevita Funa, 20. Jorge Taufua, 21. Tolutau Koula

Team news: Without Origin pair Tom Trbojevic and Daly Cherry-Evans. Reuben Garrick replaces Turbo at fullback with Moses Suli coming onto the wing. Dylan Walker replaces DCE at halfback with Cade Cust joining the bench. Josh Schuster (calf) and Curtis Sironen (knee/hamstring) remain on the injury list. Jack Gosiewski (foot) has been included in reserves as he aims to return from a long lay-off.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Jason Saab is the most popular buy this week. There are two ways of looking at this trade — as a short term cash grab or as a hold for the rest of the season. Those looking for quick cash are on the right track given Saab has a BE of -52 and projected rise of almost $160,000 over the next fortnight, at which point he can be sold for a keeper like Valentine Holmes at a PROFIT of $60,000. There is also merit in looking at Saab as a season-long prospect. You won’t play him every week but he has claims as a top 17 player most rounds given the Sea Eagles only really have 2/9 tough match-ups in the run home — against Storm (Round 21) and Eels (22).

Saab has averaged a keeper-like 70 since Tommy Turbo returned from injury, although his low floor remains a major issue — he has six scores of 30 or under this season. Of course, the biggest question with Saab and Garrick (full Garrick analysis above) is whether they can keep the stats coming over the next two weeks while Turbo and DCE are unavailable (due to Origin this week and a tight two-day turnaround the next). Ben Trbojevic has averaged just nine points this year and is making the VC loophole unusable for 23 per cent of teams.

Raiders: 1. Xavier Savage, 2. Semi Valemei, 3. Jarrod Croker, 4. Sebastian Kris, 5. Jordan Rapana, 6. Matt Frawley, 7. Sam Williams, 8. Emre Guler, 9. Josh Hodgson, 10. Dunamis Lui, 11. Corey Harawira-Naera, 12. Hudson Young, 13. Ryan Sutton

Bench: 14. Tom Starling, 15. Ryan James, 16. Iosia Soliola, 17. Joseph Tapine

Reserves: 18. Matthew Timoko, 19. Trey Mooney, 20. Brad Schneider, 21. Harry Rushton

Team news: Bailey Simonsson (toe) is out for 4-6 weeks and replaced at fullback by Xavier Savage. Matt Frawley replaces NSW representative Jack Wighton at five-eighth. Josh Papalii (Queensland) is replaced at starting prop by Emre Guler with Ryan James joining the bench. Hudson Young starts in the second row for Elliott Whitehead (shoulder).

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Coach Ricky Stuart has named young gun Xavier Savage at fullback and he therefore must come under consideration as a cheapie, especially given his CTW availability. He appears to have a decent crack at the spot with Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (neck) out for the season, Bailey Simonsson (ankle) not due back until Round 21 and Caleb Aekins falling out of favour. Although the other way to look at that is he’s unlikely to nuff out.

Of course, under normal circumstances we’d have a look before jumping on, but the search for extra numbers this week means we have to buy him sight unseen. Well almost sight unseen — Savage played 12 minutes for one point in Round 15 before being pulled over an 18th man debacle. That single point will hang in his rolling average and price rise potential is therefore limited in the short term, although he is almost $100,000 cheaper than this week’s most popular cheapie Taane Milne and that could be decisive. See Bailey Simonsson analysis above. Definite sell.

RABBITOHS V COWBOYS

Friday 9 July, Stadium Australia, 7:55pm

Rabbitohs: 1. Blake Taaffe, 2. Alex Johnston, 3. Braidon Burns, 4. Campbell Graham, 5. Taane Milne 6. Cody Walker, 7. Adam Reynolds, 8. Mark Nicholls, 9. Benji Marshall, 10. Thomas Burgess, 11. Keaon Koloamatangi, 12. Jaydn Su’A, 13. Hame Sele

Bench: 14. Liam Knight, 15. Jacob Host, 16. Patrick Mago, 17. Peter Mamouzelos

Reserves: 18. Josh Mansour, 19 Jaxson Paulo., 20. Tautau Moga, 21. Davvy Moale

Team news: Without Origin players Damien Cook, Latrell Mitchell, Cameron Murray, Jai Arrow and Dane Gagai. Cook is replaced at hooker by Benji Marshall with Peter Mamouzelos coming onto the bench as cover. Blake Taaffe will play fullback in place of Latrell Mitchell. Braidon Burns replaces Gagai in the centres with Jaydn Su’A starting on the edge for Arrow. Hame Sele moves to lock for Murray with Thomas Burgess to start at prop and Patrick Mago joining the bench.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: South Sydney’s backline is the hottest commodity in KFC SuperCoach right now with Cody Walker, Taane Milne, Alex Johnston, Adam Reynolds and Campbell Graham all in the top 10 most popular buys. The appeal is obvious given the Rabbitohs have a dream run for the next month against the Cowboys, Bulldogs, Warriors and Dragons. In fact, they really only have 3/9 tough match-ups in the run home against the Eels (Round 21), Panthers (Round 22) and Roosters (24).

See full Walker analysis above but he’s a keeper for the rest of the year and therefore close to a must-have for those who don’t already own him. Milne is the most popular cheapie this week by a long, long way. He possesses many of the crucial factors we look for in a cheapie — price rise potential (BE -24 and projected rise of almost $50,000), scoring potential on the end of a strong backline facing easy teams (although Milne’s right side outside Reynolds is far less potent than the left outside Walker) and handy dual positioning between 2RF and CTW. With Jaxson Paulo (wrist) also back soon and Josh Mansour lurking, Milne may even nuff out after this week, a perfect scenario for VC loophole purposes. That said, his $267,000 price tag is well above bottom dollar and those chasing quick cash may opt for Xavier Savage.

I don’t need to bang on too much about Johnston and Graham except to repeat from above that easy match-ups equal mass tries. Johnston is the preferred buy of these two given he plays outside Walker and Latrell on the left, but he’s also almost $200,000 more expensive.

Cowboys: 1. Daejarn Asi, 2. Kyle Feldt, 3. Javid Bowen, 4. Connelly Lemuelu, 5. Murray Taulagi, 6. Scott Drinkwater, 7. Tom Dearden, 8. Coen Hess, 9. Reece Robson, 10. Jordan McLean, 11. Shane Wright, 12. Mitchell Dunn, 13. Jason Taumalolo

Bench: 14. Jake Granville, 15. Tom Gilbert, 16. Lachlan Burr, 17. Helium Luki

Reserves: 18. Peter Hola, 19. Michael Bell, 20. Ben Condon, 21. Kane Bradley

Team news: Without Origin players Valentine Holmes, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Francis Molo but Coen Hess and Kyle Feldt are available after missing selection for the Maroons. Daejarn Asi replaces Holmes at fullback. Connelly Lemuelu (thumb) replaces Tabuai-Fidow at centre. Tom Gilbert comes onto the bench for Molo.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Jason Taumalolo has been well-below par this year and rightly dipped $180,000 below his starting price. He therefore sits at a bargain $461,500 and he scored 60 in 60 minutes last week. Hardly the worst buy, although AFB is probably a better option for $30,000 cheaper. Possessing dual CTW and 5/8 status, Daejarn Asi is the pick of the one-week-wonder cheapies. With Holmes returning after Origin, he should nuff out nicely for the run home.

BULLDOGS V ROOSTERS

Saturday 10 July, Bankwest Stadium, 7:35pm

Bulldogs: 1. Nick Meaney, 2. Corey Allan, 3. Will Hopoate, 4. Aaron Schoupp, 5. Tui Katoa, 6. Kyle Flanagan, 7. Jake Averillo, 8. Jack Hetherington, 9. Sione Katoa, 10. Luke Thompson, 11. Corey Waddell, 12. Joe Stimson, 13. Josh Jackson

Bench: 14. Bailey Biondi-Oro, 15. Dylan Napa, 16. Ofahiki Ogden, 17. Renouf Atoni

Reserves: 19. Lachlan Lewis, 20. Jackson Topine, 21. Falakiko Manu, 22. Chris Patolo

Team news: The bulk of Canterbury’s Covid crew return with Dylan Napa, Aaron Schoupp, Corey Waddell and Sione Katoa back in the 17, with Brandon Wakeham the only one to miss out. Napa replaces Ava Seumanufagai (suspension, one game) on the bench. Schoupp comes in for last week’s debutant Falakiko Manu at centre. Waddell returns straight to the starting second row with Jackson Topine reverting to the extended bench. Joe Stimson partners Waddell in the second row, with Matt Doorey (concussion) unavailable. Katoa scores the No.9 jersey in place of Jeremy Marshall-King (suspension, two games).

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Luke Thompson’s form has dropped markedly in the last month and he’s therefore dropped out of Round 17 calculations. After averaging 72 over his first seven games, he’s averaged just 53 over his last four despite minutes remaining relatively steady. I had my eye on Falakiko Manu as a one-week-wonder cheapie but he’s missed the squad.

Roosters: 1. Joey Manu, 2. Daniel Tupou, 3. Josh Morris, 4. Billy Smith, 5. Matt Ikuvalu, 6. Drew Hutchison, 7. Sam Walker, 8. Jared Waerea-Hargreave, 9. Sam Verrills, 10. Siosiua Taukeiaho, 11. Isaac Liu, 12. Sitili Tupouniua, 13. Victor Radley

Bench: 14. Liam Lam, 15. Egan Butcher, 16. Nat Butcher, 17. Ben Thomas

Reserves: 18. Adam Keighran, 19. Tuku Hau Tapuha, 20. Naufahu Whyte, 21. Joseph Suaalii

Team news: Without Origin pair James Tedesco and Angus Crichton. Joey Manu switches to fullback for Tedesco with Billy Smith to make a long-awaited NRL return at right centre. Young gun Joseph Suaalii misses the 17 altogether with Matt Ikuvalu recalled on the right wing. Victor Radley returns from suspension at lock with Issac Liu moving to 2RF to cover for Crichton. Sam Walker has been named at halfback despite rumours of resting after copping a battering against the Storm, although he has a new halves partner with Drew Hutchison preferred over Lachlan Lam. Daniel Suluka-Fifita (suspension, one game) and Fletcher Baker (isolation) are replaced on the bench by Nat Butcher, who returns from an ankle injury, and rookie prop Ben Thomas. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves is free to play, only receiving a fine after being charged out of the Storm game.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Daniel Tupou is the fifth most purchased player this week and for mine sits in Super POD territory. Tupou has been an elite KFC SuperCoach CTW for a while now, averaging 63 and 71 in the past two seasons. He has made the third most runs of any NRL player this year and therefore always produces a strong base, while tries are basically a given for a winger at the Roosters, especially outside Sam Walker. He’s available this week at a discount of almost $150,000 on his starting price. Victor Radley at $355,600? The thought has crossed my mind. See Sam Walker and Joseph Suaalii analysis above.

SHARKS V WARRIORS

Sunday 11 July, Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, 4:05pm

Sharks: 1. Will Kennedy, 2. Sione Katoa, 3. Will Chambers, 4. Jesse Ramien, 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo, 6. Connor Tracey, 7. Shaun Johnson, 8. Aiden Tolman, 9. Blayke Brailey, 10. Aaron Woods, 11. Briton Nikora, 12. Teig Wilton, 13. Toby Rudolf

Bench: 14. Braydon Trindall, 15. Siosifa Talakai, 16. Jack Williams, 17. Braden Hamlin-Uele

Reserves: 18. Billy Magoulias, 19. Mawene Hiroti, 20. Andrew Fifita, 21. Luke Metcalfi

Team news: Matt Moylan (calf) is again out after a late withdrawal last week. Connor Tracey moves into the halves with Will Chambers returning at centre and Braydon Trindall reverting to the bench.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Shaun Johnson is hot property given Nathan Cleary and Matt Burton are the most popular sells this week. Still only in 15 per cent of teams, Johnson has recovered from a slow start as he eased back from a serious Achilles injury to average a tick over 70 in the last four rounds. The Sharks have one of the softest draws in the competition, playing just two top eight sides in their final nine games — the Sea Eagles and Storm. With that in mind, Jesse Ramien and Ronaldo Mulitalo are both worth further inspection for POD hunters.  

Warriors: 1. Reece Walsh, 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, 3. Rocco Berry, 4. Marcelo Montoya, 5. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, 6. Kodi Nikorima, 7. Sean O’Sullivan, 8. Addin Fonua-Blake, 9. Wayde Egan, 10. Matt Lodge, 11. Eliesa Katoa, 12. Bayley Sironen, 13. Jazz Tevaga

Bench: 14. Kane Evans, 15. Leeson Ah Mau, 16. Bunty Afoa, 17. Ben Murdoch-Masila

Reserves: 18. Adam Pompey, 20. Jack Murchie, 21. Taniela Otukolo, 22. Edward Kosi

Team news: Matt Lodge scores an immediate start at prop after a mid-season transfer from the Broncos, with Kane Evans moving to the bench. Reece Walsh (hamstring) and Kodi Nikorima make key comebacks. Walsh returns at fullback with Roger Tuivasa-Sheck shifting to the wing and Edward Kosi dropping out. Nikorima replaces the injured Chad Townsend (shoulder) in the halves. Rocco Berry (hamstring) returns at centre for Adam Pompey. Bayley Sironen and Jazz Tevaga score starting back row spots with Ben Murdoch-Masila benched and Tohu Harris (concussion/shoulder) out.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Addin Fonua-Blake is the second most purchased player this week after hitting form on return from serious injury. After easing back in Round 14 with 32 in 47 minutes, AFB has averaged a keeper-like 67 in as many minutes in the last fortnight, all in base and base attack. At $427,500, he’s $100,000 cheaper than most comparable keepers at FRF, although it must be noted his minutes were likely inflated last week by the injuries to Tohu Harris and Eliesa Katoa. See Kodi Nikorima and Tohu Harris analysis above

Originally published as KFC SuperCoach NRL 2021: Teams analysis Round 17