State of Origin 2021: Your NRL club’s guide to surviving the series

The timing of Origin will be welcomed by a handful of clubs while others will be decimated. The Panthers and Roosters facing a nightmare run. Who wins? Who loses?

How will your team fare when the Origin period rolls along?

Penrith will likely rest some of their star players while the Rabbitohs are already putting extra mileage into the legs of their likely Origin representatives.

Welcome to the six-week State of Origin mayhem where some clubs are ripped apart and watch on anxiously as their best players compete in the interstate matches. For some though it is not all bad news. While the likes of Penrith, South Sydney, Melbourne and the Eels are expected to have at least a handful of players involved in Origin, some clubs will have none. The Tigers, Cronulla, Warriors and Canterbury could be among the teams which are not impacted by Origin.

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Nathan Cleary and Kurt Capewell are both in line to join a host of Panthers called up for Origin. Picture: Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images

Penrith’s record regular season winning run could be stopped because of Origin. Their golden run last year was uninterrupted because Origin was played at the back end of the season but they face a challenge this year which is quite unknown for the current Panthers squad.

Nathan Cleary, Brian To’o, Jarome Luai, Kurt Capewell and Isaah Yeo are well and truly in the mix for spots which has prompted coach Ivan Cleary to start planning for life without his stars.

“We’re not too sure how many we will have,” Cleary said.

“When the draw comes out you immediately look at who you’ve got and when. We have already highlighted a few games when we’re not going to have Origin players – whether that is one, two, three, four or five.”

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Penrith play the Tigers minus their Origin players in round 13 and the next round they take on Cronulla just two days after Origin. It is likely Penrith will rest some of their stars against the Sharks.

“You have a plan but that can change,” Cleary said.

“If we are fortunate enough and the season is going on a similar path to last year for us in terms of injuries and being able to control possession and flow a lot of our games – generally speaking your players get less fatigued.

“We will have a plan around whether players back up or they don’t. It’s fair to say we have a plan about resting people.

“You have to be mindful it’s a long year. Even the guys that have been in the Origin arena before have gone a year without doing it. That could be more difficult this year, with Origin being played at a faster speed than usual.”

The Rabbitohs are already planning their time without Damien Cook in the team. Picture: Cameron Spencer/Getty Images

The Rabbitohs have already started planning for the Origin period. In doing so they have identified a host of players including the likes of Damien Cook, Jai Arrow and Cody Walker who may be selected.

South Sydney’s head of performance Jarrod Wade explained how the club managed the situation.

“Even now we are putting more training into those guys who might be selected,” Wade said.

“During Origin it’s more like a finals preparation – training is sharp and not long. We are training our blokes a little harder now to prepare them. The weekly training load during Origin isn’t as much but the game intensity is a lot higher. It’s a tricky period. There is some Premier League soccer research which shows pre-loading heading into that congested period helps.

“The first thing we do is we get quick status updates from both states after the game.”

Wade said a four days post-Origin was better for a player to back-up rather than a 48-hour turnaround.

South Sydney’s Origin players may play three games in eight days after the opening Origin match. Maroons forward Jai Arrow said the changes presented a chance for other players.

Jai Arrow is still learning the tricks of the trade when it comes to prepping for Origin. Picture: Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images

“We look forward to (the Origin period) because boys are going to get an opportunity to come into this side which is exciting,” Arrow said.

Cook will head into his fourth Origin series well prepared by putting extra work in ahead of time.

“That’s something I learned from Boyd Cordner,” Cook said.

“Because you have this six-week period where you don’t do as many weights as you normally would. You try and start sneaking in extra sessions now to ensure you come out of Origin at the back end in better shape.”

Manly will be sweating on the fitness of superstar Tom Trobjevic who has been plagued by injuries in recent seasons.

The Sea Eagles are likely to take a conservative approach with their No.1 who said backing up “has always been tough”.

“I haven’t really focused on that yet,” Trobjevic said.

“We’ll cross that bridge when it comes around.”

ORIGIN SCHEDULE

Wednesday, June 9: Origin I in Melbourne

Sunday, June 27: Origin II in Brisbane

Wednesday, July 14: Origin III in Sydney

BRONCOS

■ Round 13: Thursday, June 3 v Dragons, Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, 7.50pm

■ Round 14: Saturday, June 12 v Raiders, GIO Stadium, 7.35pm

■ Round 15: Thursday, June 17 v Rabbitohs, Suncorp Stadium, 7.50pm

■ Round 16: Sunday, July 4 v Sharks, Suncorp Stadium, 2pm

■ Round 17: Bye

■ Round 18: Sunday, July 18 v Tigers, Suncorp Stadium, 4.05pm

Xavier Coates is one of very few Broncos players in with a shot of playing Origin. Picture: AAP Image/Darren England

Potential Origin losses: Xavier Coates, Payne Haas

Already missing: Kotoni Staggs (round 13), Alex Glenn (round 14), Brodie Croft (round 16), Ben Te’o (round 18), Pat Carrigan (season)

Draw analysis: Poor form means they might not even have a Maroons player selected. They play the Dragons minus Origin players which will almost certainly include New South Welshman Payne Haas. Brisbane have a three-day turnaround between Origin I and an away game against Canberra, and also play top-four side South Sydney in this stretch.

Draw rating: 6/10

BULLDOGS

■ Round 13: Bye

■ Round 14: Monday, June 14 v Dragons, Stadium Australia, 4pm

■ Round 15: Sunday, June 20 v Eels, Bankwest Stadium, 2pm

■ Round 16: Saturday, July 3 v Sea Eagles, Stadium Australia, 3pm

■ Round 17: Saturday, July 10 v Roosters, Bankwest Stadium, 7.35pm

■ Round 18: Sunday, July 18 v Rabbitohs, Stadium Australia, 6.15pm

The Bulldogs may only lose Nick Cotric as their opponents lose some major weapons to Origin. Picture: AAP Image/Darren England

Potential Origin losses: Nick Cotric

Already missing: Jayden Okunbor (round 16), Raymond Faitala-Mariner (round 18), Christian Crichton (season).

Draw analysis: Normally a run of matches against Parramatta, Manly, Roosters and Souths would be considered a horror draw. But given how little Origin will impact the Bulldogs, this is the best time to play those sides. They get to face the injury hit Roosters without their Origin superstars and play Manly and Souths just days after interstate games.

Draw rating: 8/10

COWBOYS

■ Round 13: Bye

■ Round 14: Friday, June 11 v Sea Eagles, Lottoland, 6pm

■ Round 15: Friday, June 18 v Sharks, QCB Stadium, 6pm

■ Round 16: Saturday, July 3 v Knights, McDonald Jones Stadium, 7.35pm

■ Round 17: Friday, July 9 v Rabbitohs, Stadium Australia, 7.55pm

■ Round 18: Saturday, July 17 v Roosters, QCB Stadium, 5.30pm

It was a patchy start for the Cowboys but several players, including Valentine Holmes, are in the running for an Origin call up. Picture: Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images

Potential Origin losses: Valentine Holmes, Kyle Feldt, Coen Hess, Francis Molo

Already missing: Reuben Cotter (round 19), Ben Hampton (round 19).

Draw analysis: Despite a patchy start could still have a couple of Origin players. They play South Sydney without Origin stars and a Roosters team just three days after Origin III where they could be rested. Will play Cronulla who may not have any representative players.

Draw rating: 7/10

DRAGONS

■ Round 13: Thursday, June 3 v Broncos, Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, 7.50pm

■ Round 14: Monday, June 14 v Bulldogs, Stadium Australia, 4pm

■ Round 15: Saturday, June 19 v Raiders, WIN Stadium, 5.30pm

■ Round 16: Friday, July 2 v Warriors, Mt Smart Stadium, 6pm

■ Round 17: Bye

■ Round 18: Friday, July 16 v Sea Eagles, Lottoland, 7.55pm

The Dragons may be forced to go without Ben Hunt if he gets the Queensland call up. Picture: Adam Head

Potential Origin losses: Ben Hunt, Josh Kerr, Tariq Sims, Paul Vaughan.

Already missing: Zac Lomax (round 14), Josh McGuire (round 16), Tyrell Fuimaono (round 16), Mat Feagai (round 17), Cameron McInnes (season), Jack de Belin (TBC).

Draw analysis: Play a host of teams who – like the Dragons – are expected to not have a large representation during Origin. Play Brisbane minus Origin players but also face Canterbury and the Warriors, who may not have an Origin player between them. Get Manly two days after Origin III.

Draw rating: 5/10

EELS

■ Round 13: Sunday, June 6 v Knights, McDonald Jones Stadium, 4.05pm

■ Round 14: Sunday, June 13 v Tigers, Bankwest Stadium, 4.05pm

■ Round 15: Sunday, June 20 v Bulldogs, Bankwest Stadium, 2pm

■ Round 16: Friday, July 2 v Panthers, Bluebet Stadium, 7.55pm

■ Round 17: Bye

■ Round 18: Friday, July 16 v Titans, Cbus Super Stadium, 6pm

Clint Gutherson is on the edge of the NSW starting team. Picture: Mark Kolbe/Getty Images

Potential Origin losses: Clint Gutherson, Junior Paulo, Reagan Campbell-Gillard, Nathan Brown, Reed Mahoney

Already missing: Will Smith (round 14).

Draw analysis: Will be impacted by Origin for the first time in years. Face Newcastle without their Origin players but then play the Tigers and Bulldogs, who may not have any players missing. Expected to play a full-strength Penrith side in the mix too.

Draw rating: 4/10

KNIGHTS

■ Round 13: Sunday, June 6 v Eels, McDonald Jones Stadium, 4.05pm

■ Round 14: Saturday, June 12 v Rabbitohs, Stadium Australia, 5.30pm

■ Round 15: Saturday, June 19 v Warriors, McDonald Jones Stadium, 3pm

■ Round 16: Saturday, July 3 v Cowboys, McDonald Jones Stadium, 7.35pm

■ Round 17: Bye

■ Round 18: Saturday, July 17 v Storm, AAMI Park, 7.35pm

Kalyn Ponga will be a big loss for the Knights during the Origin period. Picture: Adam Head

Potential Origin losses: Kalyn Ponga, Daniel Saifiti, Tyson Frizell, David Klemmer

Already missing: Mitchell Pearce (round 15), Pasami Saulo (season).

Draw analysis: Fairly even given the amount of players expected to be missing from both sides when they play the Eels. Drawing the Rabbitohs and Storm three days after respective Origin matches is a boost.

Draw rating: 6/10

PANTHERS

■ Round 13: Friday, June 4 v Tigers, Leichhardt Oval, 7.55pm

■Round 14: Friday, June 11 v Sharks, Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, 7.55pm

■ Round 15: Friday, June 18 v Roosters, Bluebet Stadium, 7.55pm

■ Round 16: Friday, July 2 v Eels, Bluebet Stadium, 7.55pm

■ Round 17: Bye

■ Round 18: Sunday, July 18 v Warriors, Mt Smart Stadium, 2pm

Nathan Cleary will join a host of other Panthers who will be called up for Origin. Picture: Chris Hyde/Getty Images

Potential Origin losses: Brian To’o, Stephen Crichton, Jarome Luai, Nathan Cleary, Kurt Capewell, Isaah Yeo, Liam Martin

Draw analysis: Will be hugely impacted for the first time in years, so it will be a test. At the moment they have a clean bill of health which will be a huge advantage if it stays that way. Play the Tigers minus Origin players then have to back-up against Cronulla and the Warriors, who won’t be impacted.

Draw rating: 2/10

RABBITOHS

■ Round 13: Bye

■ Round 14: Saturday, June 12 v Knights, Stadium Australia, 5.30pm

■ Round 15: Thursday, June 17 v Broncos, Suncorp Stadium, 7.50pm

■ Round 16: Sunday, July 4 v Tigers, Leichhardt Oval, 4.05pm

■ Round 17: Friday, July 9 v Cowboys, Stadium Australia, 7.55pm

■ Round 18: Sunday, July 18 v Bulldogs, Stadium Australia, 6.15pm

Latrell Mitchell is on the brink of being recalled to the Blues. Picture: AAP Image/Dave Hunt

Potential Origin losses: Latrell Mitchell, Dane Gagai, Cody Walker, Damien Cook, Jaydn Su’A, Cameron Murray.

Already missing: Jaxson Paulo (round 15)

Draw analysis: Have to face the Cowboys minus some of their big names. Will also need to back up against the Knights and Bulldogs just days after Origin games. In between, they play the Tigers and Broncos.

Draw rating: 5/10

RAIDERS

■ Round 13: Bye

■ Round 14: Saturday, June 12 v Broncos, GIO Stadium, 7.35pm

■ Round 15: Saturday, June 19 v Dragons, WIN Stadium, 5.30pm

■ Round 16: Saturday, July 3 v Titans, GIO Stadium, 5.30pm

■ Round 17: Thursday, July 8 v Sea Eagles, Lottoland, 7.50pm

■ Round 18: Saturday, July 17 v Sharks, GIO Stadium, 3pm

Jack Wighton appears to be the only Raider in with a shot of playing Origin I. Picture: AAP Image/Dean Lewins

Potential Origin losses: Jack Wighton, Josh Papalii (from Origin II).

Already missing: Josh Papalii (round 14), Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (round 15), Harley Smith-Shields (round 20).

Draw analysis: Canberra’s poor start to the year may have a silver lining with Jack Wighton the only player in contention for Origin I. Josh Papalii will play a part in the series once he returns from suspension. Get to play Manly without Daly Cherry-Evans and the Trbojevic brothers.

Draw rating: 8/10

ROOSTERS

■ Round 13: Bye

■ Round 14: Saturday, June 12 v Titans, Cbus Super Stadium, 3pm

■ Round 15: Friday, June 18 v Panthers, Bluebet Stadium, 7.55pm

■ Round 16: Thursday, July 1 v Storm, SCG, 7.50pm

■ Round 17: Saturday, July 10 v Bulldogs, Bankwest Stadium, 7.35pm

■ Round 18: Saturday, July 17 v Cowboys, QCB Stadium, 5.30pm

James Tedesco headlines a list of star Roosters who will be out for Origin. Picture: Cameron Spencer/Getty Images

Potential Origin losses: James Tedesco, Daniel Tupou, Angus Crichton, Victor Radley

Already missing: Boyd Cordner (round 14), Sam Verrills (round 14), Drew Hutchison (round 16), Billy Smith (TBC), Luke Keary, Brett Morris, Lindsay Collins (all season).

Draw analysis: Tough draw in the sense they play Canterbury without representative players and have to back up to play Melbourne and North Queensland. Face the Gold Coast and Penrith in between. Melbourne will also have a large Origin contingent. Will be boosted by the return of Boyd Cordner, who won’t feature in Origin, but they already have a huge injury toll.

Draw rating: 3/10

SEA EAGLES

■ Round 13: Bye

■ Round 14: Friday, June 11 v Cowboys, Lottoland, 6pm

■ Round 15: Sunday, June 20 v Titans, Cbus Super Stadium, 4.05pm

■ Round 16: Saturday, July 3 v Bulldogs, Stadium Australia, 3pm

■ Round 17: Thursday, July 8 v Raiders, Lottoland, 7.50pm

■ Round 18: Friday, July 16 v Dragons, Lottoland, 7.55pm

Tom Trbojevic will return to the Origin arena, leaving the Sea Eagles without their most fearsome weapon. Picture: AAP Image/Dean Lewins

Potential Origin losses: Tom Trbojevic, Jake Trbojevic, Daly Cherry-Evans.

Already missing: Kieran Foran (TBC), Jack Gosiewski (round 17), Josh Aloiai (round 20), Andrew Davey (season), Morgan Boyle (season), Manase Fainu (stood down).

Draw analysis: What should have been a dream draw could quickly sour if they don’t learn how to win without Tom Trbojevic. The Raiders and Dragons are the only top-eight sides they will play during Origin. Face Canberra without rep players and it is unclear just how much the club will test Tom Trbojevic to back up given his injury problems.

Draw rating: 5/10

SHARKS

■ Round 13: Bye

■ Round 14: Friday, June 11 v Panthers, Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, 7.55pm

■ Round 15: Friday, June 18 v Cowboys, QCB Stadium, 6pm

■ Round 16: Sunday, July 4 v Broncos, Suncorp Stadium, 2pm

■ Round 17: Sunday, July 11 v Warriors, Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, 4.05pm

■ Round 18: Saturday, July 17 v Raiders, GIO Stadium, 3pm

The Sharks will face a Panthers squad hamstrung by Origin committments. Picture: Matt King/Getty Images

Potential Origin losses: None

Already missing: Jesse Ramien (round 14), Braden Hamlin-Uele (round 15), Royce Hunt (TBC).

Draw analysis: Unlikely to have anyone in Origin and get to play a Penrith side two days after Origin I where the Panthers are likely to rest some of their stars. Play the Warriors who will also not have not have an Origin player. The Cowboys, Brisbane and Canberra will also be teams who aren’t significantly impacted by Origin.

Draw rating: 6/10

STORM

■ Round 13: Saturday, June 5 v Titans, AAMI Park, 7.35pm

■ Round 14: Sunday, June 13 v Warriors, Central Coast Stadium, 2pm

■ Round 15: Saturday, June 19 v Tigers, AAMI Park, 7.35pm

■ Round 16: Thursday, July 1 v Roosters, SCG, 7.50pm

■ Round 17: Bye

■ Round 18: Saturday, July 17 v Knights, AAMI Park, 7.35pm

Josh Addo-Carr leads a string of Storm stars who will get the call up for Origin. Picture: Chris Hyde/Getty Images

Potential Origin losses: Ryan Papenhuyzen, Josh Addo-Carr, Cameron Munster, Harry Grant, Dale Finucane, Christian Welch.

Already missing: Darryn Schonig (round 15), Max King, Harry Grant (both indefinite).

Draw analysis: Will be missing a host of stars when they play the Titans and then have to back up against a Warriors side who won’t have any Origin players. It balances out when they have to play the Roosters four days after Origin II.

Draw rating: 4/10

TIGERS

■ Round 13: Friday, June 4 v Panthers, Leichhardt Oval, 7.55pm

■ Round 14: Sunday, June 13 v Eels, Bankwest Stadium, 4.05pm

■ Round 15: Saturday, June 19 v Storm, AAMI Park, 7.35pm

■ Round 16: Sunday, July 4 v Rabbitohs, Leichhardt Oval, 4.05pm

■ Round 17: Bye

■ Round 18: Sunday, July 18 v Broncos, Suncorp Stadium, 4.05pm

Joe Ofahengaue is a long shot to represent the Maroons this series. Picture: AAP Image/Dave Hunt

Potential Origin losses: Joe Ofahengaue

Already missing: Asu Kepaoa

Draw analysis: Blessed that they get to play the Panthers minus Origin players and will face a Parramatta side four days after Origin I. They have to play Melbourne and South Sydney in between where both sides should again be full strength but then take on Brisbane post-Origin three.

Draw rating: 7/10

TITANS

■ Round 13: Saturday, June 5 v Storm, AAMI Park, 7.35pm

■ Round 14: Saturday, June 12 v Roosters, Cbus Super Stadium, 3pm

■ Round 15: Sunday, June 20 v Sea Eagles, Cbus Super Stadium, 4.05pm

■ Round 16: Saturday, July 3 v Raiders, GIO Stadium, 5.30pm

■ Round 17: Bye

■ Round 18: Friday, July 16 v Eels, Cbus Super Stadium, 6pm

Star recruit David Fifita will get the call up for the Maroons as the Titans lose several players. Picture: Adam Head

Potential Origin losses: AJ Brimson, David Fifita, Moeaki Fotuaika, Phillip Sami, Jarrod Wallace, Tino Fa’asuamaleaui

Already missing: Herman Ese’ese (round 14), Sam Lisone, Jonus Pearson, Corey Thompson (all round 15).

Draw analysis: No Origin players when they face Melbourne is always a bonus, but the Titans are expected to be without a few players of their own. Get to play the Roosters three days after Origin I and the Eels just two days post-game three which helps.

Draw rating: 8/10

WARRIORS

■ Round 13: Bye

■ Round 14: Sunday, June 13 v Storm, Central Coast Stadium, 2pm

■ Round 15: Saturday, June 19 v Knights, McDonald Jones Stadium, 3pm

■ Round 16: Friday, July 2 v Dragons, Mt Smart Stadium, 6pm

■ Round 17: Sunday, July 11 v Sharks, Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, 4.05pm

■ Round 18: Sunday, July 18 v Panthers, Mt Smart Stadium, 2pm

The Warriors should benefit from facing an Origin-hit Storm squad. Picture: AAP Image/Joel Carrett

Potential Origin losses: None

Already missing: Addin Fonua-Blake (round 19), David Fusitu’a (indefinite), Peta Hiku (season).

Draw analysis: Do not have any Origin players which is obviously a boost during this period. But they play a Cronulla side who are also not expected to lose any players to Origin. Get to play Melbourne and the Panthers just a few days post-Origin.

Draw rating: 6/10

Originally published as State of Origin 2021: Your NRL club’s guide to surviving the series