State of Origin: Matty Johns breaks down where the Suncorp decider will be won and lost

If anyone can stop the attacking geniuses of Reece Walsh and Kalyn Ponga down their favoured left side, it’s Stephen Crichton. Matty Johns analyses the key battles that will decide State of Origin game three.

wide sub image for Johns Origin match-ups

A decider at Suncorp Stadium, Queensland coming off an embarrassing defeat, ribbing between both camps, Michael Maguire needling Billy Slater and trying to apply pressure …. This is going to be an Origin to remember.

The build-up already is.

There’s some key match-ups which will decide the victor, let’s check them out.

(L-R) Michael Maguire and Billy Slater. Picture: NRL Imagery

MICHAEL MAGUIRE V BILLY SLATER

After the game-one loss, Madge probably sat back and thought he’d gone a little soft on his opposition coach, allowing Slater to concentrate exclusively on his team. So leading up to game two, Maguire decided to throw a couple of hand grenades at Billy‘s glass house to see what the response would be.

It was clear the glasshouses comment irked Slater enormously and he couldn’t hide his irritation.

Did it affect his coaching and, in turn, the team performance? Well, given his change of demeanour this preparation I would suggest it did.

No David Fifita has surprised most. His attacking threat is immense but it’s clear Slater isn’t willing to take a risk on his defensive shortcomings.

Maguire is one of the game’s very best at exploiting a player’s defensive tendencies and weaknesses, and Slater is more than aware of that.

(L-R) Reece Walsh and Stephen Crichton. Picture: NRL Imagery

REECE WALSH/KALYN PONGA V STEPHEN CRICHTON

Both Reece Walsh and Kalyn Ponga love attacking toward the left side.

Fox Sports Lab’s heat maps of their respective possessions all over the field show that they both attack in and around the third defender from the edge, applying pressure to the opposition centre and winger.

If the centre stays out, he risks his inside defender being burnt by speed. If he gravitates inward, he risks leaving his winger vulnerable to a clever pass.

Kalyn Ponga's possession heat map. It shows how much Ponga heavily favours the left side of the field, with the bulk of his touches of the football coming there, culminating in the red area close to the try line, which is a warning for NSW’s right-edge defenders. Image: Fox Sports Lab

Reece Walsh's possession heat map. The fullback plays more across the field, and there’s a high concentration of touches on the right-side close to the try line. However, you can see a long sweeping trend of Walsh being on the ball on the left side of the field, from deep inside his own half, targeting right-edge defences. Image: Fox Sports Lab

Luckily, patrolling that edge is Stephen Crichton. If anyone is capable of stopping these two attacking geniuses it’s the Canterbury captain.

What’s crucial is that winger Zac Lomax doesn’t lose focus and become disconnected from Crichton; he’s been caught out a number of times in this series.

And Slater will send his playmakers at him again.

POSSESSION HEAT MAP EXPLAINERS

Reece Walsh: The fullback plays more across the field, and there’s a high concentration of touches on the right-side close to the try line. However, you can see a long sweeping trend of Walsh being on the ball on the left side of the field, from deep inside his own half, targeting right-edge defences.

Kalyn Ponga: It shows how much Ponga heavily favours the left side of the field, with the bulk of his touches of the football coming there, culminating in the red area close to the try line, which is a warning for NSW’s right-edge defenders.

THE YARDAGE BATTLE 

For NSW, it’s Payne Haas, Cam Murray and Brian To’o who’ll lead yardage. For Queensland, it’s Pat Carrigan, Lindsey Collins and Reuben Cotter.

The team who dominates yardage, dominates field position and places the playmakers in areas for attacking kicks regularly, one of State of Origin’s primary weapons.

Off the bench, watch for Spencer Leniu to give the Blues a big sugar hit.

(L-R) Dylan Edwards and Kalyn Ponga. Picture: NRL Imagery

DYLAN EDWARDS V KALYN PONGA

These two players present a huge challenge to the middle defences.

I expect Slater to use Ponga off the bench in a No.13 role. If Queensland are dominating possession and the NSW big men fatiguing, the introduction of a fresh Ponga could be way too much for the Blues middle men to handle.

For Queensland’s middle defence, Dylan Edwards is death by a thousand cuts. The volume of his work and the cumulative effect of his runs through the centre field, one of the cornerstones of Penrith’s long dominance, and a nightmare for the big blokes.

(L-R) Dane Gagai and Bradman Best.

BRADMAN BEST V DANE GAGAI

Winning this individual tussle won’t guarantee victory like the halves battle will, but it’s intriguing. The two Knights teammates, the Old Bull against the Young Bull.

Gagai has mentored Best for a number of years, being crucial in Bradman’s rise. Best will worry Gagai with his power but he needs to know this Gagai will be very different to the one he plays with at Newcastle.

Gagai is a great of State of Origin, winning two man-of-the-series awards. Using emotion to elevate your performance is a skill and a huge weapon in sport, particularly one as physical as rugby league.

Gagai has mastered this skill for big games. He will be everywhere next Wednesday night and will be all over Best each time the ball even looks like touching his Knights teammate’s hands.

HARRY GRANT V NSW MARKERS

The level of Harry Grant’s impact off the bench will be a major contributor to the outcome. The NSW markers need to be on high alert, if Grant is able to slip past them he’ll create big problems. The Blues need to win the battle of the play the ball, slow the ruck and be willing to give away the occasional six-again if stretching the rules at marker means shutting down Grant.

(L-R) Mitch Moses and Daly Cherry-Evans. Picture: NRL Imagery

DCE v MOSES

This is the biggest challenge of Mitch Moses’ career. For a playmaker it doesn’t get any more difficult.

The hostility and the noise in Suncorp Stadium will be nothing like he’s experienced.

Amid it all, he has to control his emotions and control his team, which will be difficult given the amount of noise and adrenaline.

Attack wise, Moses should have the Blues doing less early on, so he can place full focus on nailing his last-tackle plays.

For DCE, it’s business as usual. Cherry-Evans is perfectly suited to origin football because he’s a brilliant watch-and-react player, a style which suits the lightning-fast tempo. Watch for Cherry-Evans to do the staple play of Queensland when they’re under pressure; kick early, kick long, chase hard and pin the Blues on their own try line, turning the momentum of the contest.

MY PREDICTIONS

NSW by 8

Man of the match: Payne Haas

Originally published as State of Origin: Matty Johns breaks down where the Suncorp decider will be won and lost