Raiders big forward pack sets a genuine battle against clinical Storm, writes Paul Kent

RICKY Stuart’s declaration his side will win the title was a rare moment of genuine intent and it plays right into the Raiders’ hands, writes Paul Kent.

THERE must be about 40 different traps being set this weekend, all along common themes.

The age-old battle of the wrestle versus open play usually gets the best of it up as the NRL tries to determine what kind of game it wants to present, but the surprise was Ricky Stuart’s unscripted declaration to the Raiders faithful at their presentation night, which he had no idea was being recorded and, worse, would go to air, that the Raiders would win the grand final.

Stuart had no ideas there were cameras inside and that it would later be broadcast. The camera crew, who were invited, had no idea Stuart did not know they were there or that some comments were off limits.

The result was a rare moment of genuine intent and while it initially looks embarrassing it plays into the Raiders’ hands. To understand why, you have to understand how Stuart has energised his team this season and convinced them to believe. It’s simple in theory but difficult to implement. Kind of like saying the way to scale Mt Everest is easy, just one step after another.

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Ricky Stuart wants the Raiders to win and win ruthlessly.

For years Canberra were polite and inoffensive, with a deep complex. It was as if they would like to beat you but not if it meant upsetting you.

Stuart arrived and almost immediately began changing that, beginning with instilling confidence in the Raiders. He made them know it was okay to win ruthlessly.

And they are doing it with a style unconventional in the modern game and almost a polar opposite to the style played best by Melbourne, who have subtly shifted their own.

It is unfortunate but a big way to deciding who wins Saturday might well be how the game is refereed. A true 10m with little wrestle will favour the Raiders; if the Storm can wrestle and dictate they will be too tough.

The Storm play the long game. After a rough beginning to the season the Storm settled on a system of middle third football, using their giant forwards to wear down their opposition forwards in a bid to break them down at the end.

It is not new to the game.

Years ago Queensland picked the Origin version of Stonehenge, monoliths likes of Gorden Tallis, Dane Carlaw, Brad Thorn and Shane Webcke and NSW coach Phil Gould simply did not have the size to match them. So the theory was to pick quick players and play around them.

Instead, Gould picked men with big motors and unusual toughness and told them they were going to do nothing but play inside all night.

Sia Soliola takes on the Panthers defence in week two of the finals. pic Mark Evans

Straight through the middle of them. You’ll get beat up, he told them, but hang in and the toll will be such the Maroons will fatigue late in the game.

That’s how the Blues won, coming over them at the end.

It is rare but not uncommon.

Whenever anybody thinks about the book Moneyball they reference the revelation of data to show that the batter’s On Base Percentage was far more relative to a team’s overall success than his batting average, as a century of ­tradition dictated.

Forgotten but almost equally as important to the Moneyball theory was the toll on opposition pitchers. This sorts the Moneyball devotees from those who have actually read the book to those who have merely watched the Brad Pitt movie, where it is not mentioned.

By getting batters on base more often, the team playing Moneyball found the surprise benefit of wearing down the pitcher’s arm earlier in the game, forcing them to seek relief — and thereby churn through the roster — much earlier in the game.

Runs often came late.

The Storm follow a similar philosophy. They attempt to keep the scoreline tight and performance disciplined as they play though the middle wearing opposition down, set after set, to win it at the end. Against Canberra’s forwards, larger than average, it sets up a battle.

A new look on an old theme.

Originally published as Raiders big forward pack sets a genuine battle against clinical Storm, writes Paul Kent