NRL Run Home 2023: Rugby league fairytales will end this week, but for which clubs?

Two things are certain in the race to the NRL premiership – dreams will be made and fairytales ended. We have all the predictions and match-ups in the NRL Run Home.

Penrith and Brisbane have been the two best teams this season and are both through to the preliminary finals, as they should be.

That leaves the rest of the contenders fighting for their chance to lift the NRL premiership trophy on October 1.

The unexpected success of the Warriors and Knights has captivated the imagination of their loyal supporters, but one fairytale season will come to an end this week.

The Roosters too have made it battered and bruised to the semi-finals, facing a Storm side with a head full of steam at home.

How do the top six make the big dance from here? We take a look in the NRL Run Home to the grand final.

The Broncos are charging. Picture: Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images

PANTHERS

Won: 19, Lost: 6, Drawn: 0

Streak: 2 wins

Preliminary Final: Storm or Roosters at Accor Stadium, Sydney [TBC] (W)

Grand final: Broncos, Knights or Warriors at Accor Stadium, Sydney

Penrith were ruthless in their destruction of an understrength Warriors side on Saturday afternoon, earning themselves a week off to rest their own niggles. Injured five-eighth Jarome Luai is also likely to be fit to play the preliminary final, but it appears nothing can stop the Panthers now. Either the Roosters or Storm will have to play the game of their lives to make the grand final from here.

BRONCOS

Won: 19, Lost: 6, Drawn: 0

Streak: 1 win

Preliminary final: Knights or Warriors at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane (W)

Grand final: Panthers, Storm or Roosters at Accor Stadium, Sydney

A 26-0 demolition of Melbourne was the best sign yet that the Broncos are the one true match for Penrith so far in this finals series. Keeping the Storm to zilch was the biggest statement they could make in week one, earning themselves a home preliminary final in which they’ll be hard to beat. The potential matchups of either Reece Walsh and Kalyn Ponga or Shaun Johnson and Adam Reynolds are exciting either way.

Melbourne Storm copped a hiding from Brisbane, can they bounce back against the Roosters? Picture: Adam Head

STORM

Won: 16, Lost: 9, Drawn: 0

Streak: 1 loss

Semi Final: Roosters at AAMI Park, Melbourne (W)

Preliminary final: Panthers at Accor Stadium, Sydney [TBC] (L)

Melbourne’s consistency hasn’t been the best this season, but they failed to fire a shot at Brisbane on Friday night. They’ve done enough in the regular rounds to earn themselves a second chance with a home semi-final, and the Roosters will need to play the game of their season to beat them. A devastating injury to Ryan Papenhuyzen will shake up the side again, but Craig Bellamy and Cameron Munster in particular are not the kind of men to take a loss well. They haven’t lost back-to-back games since the start of the season, which bodes well for their chances of making the preliminary final against Penrith.

WARRIORS

Won: 16, Lost: 9, Drawn: 0

Streak: 1 loss

Semi final: Knights at Go Media Stadium, Auckland (W)

Preliminary final: Broncos at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane (L)

The Warriors were always going to find it tough to win at Penrith in their last home game of the year, but without Shaun Johnson (calf) that mission became almost impossible. They desperately need their skipper back to face the Knights this week and the club is hopeful he can return. A home game in New Zealand is the boost the Warriors need to face a Knights side on a 10-game winning streak, and the vocal home crowd support could be enough to get them across the line and into their first preliminary finals match since 2011.

Angus Crichton training on Monday at Allianz Stadium. Picture: Brendon Thorne/Getty Images

KNIGHTS

Won: 15, Lost: 9, Drawn: 1

Streak: 10 wins

Semi final: Warriors at Go Media Stadium, Auckland (L)

Along with the Warriors, the Knights are the fairytale story of the 2023 season. It’s a shame that one of the genuine surprise packets of the year will be knocked out this week. Newcastle’s gritty 30-28 extra-time win over the Raiders on Sunday afternoon will be emotionally taxing as well as physically demanding. And it looks as though they’ll lose halfback Jackson Hastings to an ankle injury that has kept him out of the past month of football. However, momentum is huge coming into the finals and their belief and confidence is soaring right now.

ROOSTERS

Won: 14, Lost: 11, Drawn: 0

Streak: 6 wins

Semi final: Storm at AAMI Park, Melbourne (L)

The Roosters have gone from an unlikely finals side to week two on the back of sheer bravery and determination.

The fact they’re even in the finals defies the odds, but as depleted as they are, they keep fighting. After outlasting Cronulla in a gripping 13-12 win on Saturday, they face a steaming Melbourne side looking to salvage their season and make amends for a sorry loss to Brisbane.

Billy Smith (jaw), Joey Manu (hamstring) and Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii (concussion) are all out. It’s the biggest challenge they’ve faced at the back end of this NRL season and they’ll need all the guts they can muster to win.

Originally published as NRL Run Home 2023: Rugby league fairytales will end this week, but for which clubs?