NRL finals: How has State of Origin impacted your club’s playoffs push?
THE gruelling State of Origin period can break a club’s season. We analyse the form and health of all 16 NRL teams ahead of the run home to the finals.
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THE gruelling State of Origin period can break a club’s season as injuries strike and club depth is severely tested.
Just ask the Cowboys, who will be without star playmaker Johnathan Thurston thanks to a season-ending injury suffered in Origin II.
So with the 2017 series now run and won, how did your club emerge?
We analyse the form and health of all 16 NRL teams ahead of the run home to the finals.
MELBOURNE STORM
Pre-Origin position: 1st
Post Origin position: 1st
Record: 4-2
Beat Newcastle 40-12, beat Cronulla 18-13, beat North Queensland 23-22, lost to Sydney Roosters 25-24, beat Brisbane 42-12, lost to Parramatta 22-6
Origin players: Billy Slater, Cooper Cronk, Cameron Smith, Will Chambers, Tim Glasby, Cameron Munster
Health report: Cheyse Blair is out for the season and Brandon Smith is out until the later stages with a wrist injury. Jordan McLean has missed some games with a hamstring injury, while Tohu Harris is managing a knee issue. Apart from that Melbourne have escaped the Origin period unscathed and their six Maroons stars get a rest with the bye this weekend.
Run home: BYE, Raiders (away), Sea Eagles, Cowboys (away), Roosters, Knights (away), Rabbitohs, Raiders.
Prognosis: Somehow, the Storm have gotten better over the Origin period. They’ve showcased their impressive depth in the win over North Queensland the losses to Parramatta and the Roosters while also proving how far ahead they are of the rest of the pack in the win over Brisbane. The run home is pretty mixed, combining a series of winnable games with enough matches to test their mettle. It is difficult to see a team in a better position than the Victorians.
CRONULLA SHARKS
Pre-Origin position: 3rd
Post Origin position: 2nd
Record: 3-2
Beat Canterbury 9-8, lost to Melbourne 18-13, beat Wests Tigers 24-22, lost to Manly 35-18 beat Sydney Roosters 44-12
Origin players: James Maloney, Wade Graham, Andrew Fifita, Valentine Holmes, Jack Bird
Health report: Young hooker Jayden Brailey’s broken jaw is the major injury the Sharks suffered but he’ll be back before the finals, while James Segeyaro could make his comeback this weekend.
Run home: Titans (away), Rabbitohs, Warriors (away), Raiders, Broncos (away), Cowboys (away), Roosters (home), Knights (away)
Prognosis: Cronulla were unbeaten when missing their Origin contingent but the losses to Melbourne (without Cooper Cronk) and Manly will be of some concern to coach Shane Flanagan. However, the thumping 44-12 win over the Roosters, perhaps the defending premiers’ best performance of the season, and the fact they were able to climb a spot on the ladder, have their title hopes in good stead.
SYDNEY ROOSTERS
Pre-Origin position: 4th
Post Origin position: 3rd
Record: 4-2
Lost to Canberra 24-16, beat Brisbane 18-16, beat Wests Tigers 40-18, beat Melbourne 25-24, lost to Cronulla 44-12, beat South Sydney 14-12
Origin players: Mitchell Pearce, Boyd Cordner, Aidan Guerra, Dylan Napa, Blake Ferguson
Health report: The Roosters have had luck with injury all year, until last weekend’s win over the Rabbitohs. Losing Michael Gordon for eight weeks is a real blow for the club’s top four hopes. His potential replacements — Blake Ferguson, Latrell Mitchell and Connor Watson — are not specialist fullbacks. Jake Friend is also set to miss up to a month with a broken hand, another big obstacle for the Roosters as the gritty hooker has been close to the Tricolours best this season.
Run home: Bye, Knights, Cowboys, Sea Eagles (away), Storm (away), Tigers, Sharks (away), Titans
Prognosis: The Roosters are yet to record a win over a full-strength top-four side, but they have the pedigree and the talent to go deep into the finals. The loss of Gordon and Friend is a serious hindrance, but with the bye this weekend coach Trent Robinson has extra time to work out how he’ll cover for their absence.
MANLY SEA EAGLES
Pre-Origin position: 6th
Post Origin position: 4th
Record: 4-1
Beat Canberra 21-20, beat Newcastle 18-14, beat Cronulla 35-18, beat New Zealand 26-22, lost to Penrith 16-18
Origin players: Jake Trboejvic, Nate Myles (now at Melbouirne)
Health report: Tom Trbojevic missed a few weeks and Curtis Sironen won’t be back until the brink of the finals but the only long-term injury at Manly is Jorge Taufua, who will miss the rest of the season with a knee complaint.
Run home: Tigers, Dragons (away), Storm (away), Roosters, Tigers (away), Bulldogs (away), Warriors (away), Panthers
Prognosis: Manly are well placed to secure a top-four finish. A light Origin representation, a key player with a point to prove and a handy run home has them well positioned.
BRISBANE BRONCOS
Pre-Origin position: 4th
Post Origin position: 5th
Record: 2-3
Lost to the Warriors 28-10, lost to the Roosters 18-16, beat Souths 24-18, beat Canberra 30-20, lost to Melbourne 42-12
Origin Players: Anthony Milford, Darius Boyd, Ben Hunt, Matt Gillett, Josh McGuire, Corey Oates, Sam Thaiday
Health report: Anthony Milford and Darius Boyd both missed Origin and club matches as a result of injury and while they’re expected to be back before the finals, it’s made this period even tougher for Brisbane. Herman Ese’ese and David Mead will both be out until Round 20-21 and Corey Oates’ staph infection means it’ll be a bare bones Broncos backline for the next few weeks at least.
Run home: Knights (away), Bulldogs, Eels (away), Titans (away), Sharks, Dragons, Eels, Cowboys (away)
Prognosis: Brisbane are one of the top teams in the competition, but injuries over this period could really cripple their title chances. Coach Wayne Bennett has been dealing with the impact of Origin longer than anyone else, but that doesn’t make it any easier.
NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS
Pre-Origin position: 7th
Post Origin position: 6th
Record: 4-1
Beat Gold Coast 20-8, beat Parramatta 32-6, lost to Melbourne 23-22, beat Penrith 14-12, beat Canberra 31-12
Origin players: Johnathan Thurston, Gavin Cooper, Coen Hess, Justin O’Neill, Michael Morgan
Health report: You might have heard, but Johnathan Thurston isn’t playing again this season. Matt Scott hasn’t played since Round 2 and Pat Kaufusi is also on the sidelines until 2018 but apart from that — and losing Thurston is clearly a massive blow — the Cowboys have been a picture of health through the Origin period.
Run home: Warriors, Roosters (away), Storm, Panthers (away), Sharks, Tigers (away), Broncos
Prognosis: There is a lot of talent in this North Queensland side even without Thurston and Scott. But the loss of their star playmaker and a brutal run home makes their finals quest extremely difficult. A top-four finish might be beyond them, but they’ll be a tough outfit every single week.
ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS
Pre-Origin position: 5th
Post Origin position: 7th
Record: 2-3
Beat Wests Tigers 16-12, lost to Canterbury 16-2, lost to Parramatta 24-10, beat Newcastle 32-28, lost to Gold Coast 20-10
Origin players: Josh Dugan, Tyson Frizell
Health report: Paul Vaughan missed the loss to Gold Coast with a calf injury and Tyson Frizell is clearly quite battered but after the return of Gareth Widdop it’s been smooth sailing for the Dragons. Frizell has been given this weekend off as he recovers from a rib injury.
Run home: Raiders (away), Sea Eagles, Knights (away), Rabbitohs, Titans, Broncos (away), Panthers (away), Bulldogs
Prognosis: The Dragons are in a tailspin that is unrelated to any Origin representation and their season hangs in the balance. There’s still a handy buffer between them and the teams lurking on the outside of the top eight, but the gap is shrinking all the time. A win over Canberra this Friday is absolutely vital to their finals hopes.
PARRAMATTA EELS
Pre-Origin position: 10th
Post Origin position: 8th
Record: 5-1
Beat South Sydney 22-16, beat New Zealand 32-24, lost to North Queensland 32-6, beat St George Illawarra 24-10, beat Canterbury 13-12, beat Melbourne 22-6
Origin players: None
Health report: The Eels have lost Beau Scott to injury for the rest of the season and their forward depth has taken a hit with Tim Mannah, Manu Ma’u, Frank Pritchard and Peni Terepo all spending some time on the sidelines. The club will also be without Kaysa Pritchard until next year after the gritty hooker suffered a serious knee injury.
Run home: Bye, Tigers (away), Broncos, Bulldogs (away), Knights, Titans, Broncos (away), Rabbitohs
Prognosis: Parramatta didn’t have a single Origin player this year and the results have reflected that with the club securing their place in the top eight on the back of a strong run of form. They also have a very good run home — apart from the trip to Brisbane, they will play every game at ANZ Stadium. The Eels’ finals drought should come to an end.
PENRITH PANTHERS
Pre-Origin position: 11th
Post-Origin position: 9th
Record: 3-2
Beat Canterbury 38-0, beat Canberra 24-20, lost to North Queensland 14-12, lost to South Sydney 42-14, beat Manly 16-8
Origin players: None
Health report: Peter Wallace’s injury predates the Origin period but he is yet to return to the team. Bryce Cartwright won’t play again until Round 23 and Dean Whare’s broken jaw will keep him on the sideline until Round 22.
Run home: Warriors (away), Titans, Bulldogs, Tigers, Cowboys, Raiders (away), Dragons, Sea Eagles (away)
Prognosis: Penrith’s form has been up and down all season, but they should make the finals. A run of home games and only one top four opponent is about as good as any team can ask for. If the Panthers can’t make it happen it will add to what has been an extremely disappointing season.
NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS
Pre-Origin position: 14th
Post-Origin position: 10th
Record: 3-2
Beat Brisbane 28-10, lost to Parramatta 32-24, beat Gold Coast 34-12, beat Canterbury 21-14, beat Manly 26-22
Origin players: Jacob Lillyman
Health report: Issac Luke spent a few weeks on the sidelines but is expected to return this weekend. Ryan Hoffman will be out until Round 22 due to a broken foot, which is a real blow for the Warriors’ finals hopes.
Run home: Panthers, Cowboys (away), Sharks, Knights (away), Raiders, Rabbitohs (away), Sea Eagles, Tigers
Prognosis: The Warriors making up ground on the rest of the competition during the Origin period is an annual tradition and while they’ve clawed their way up from 14th to re-enter the finals race, a 3-2 record isn’t something to crow too loudly about. They’re still in the finals picture but can’t afford to drop too many more games.
CANBERRA RAIDERS
Pre-Origin position: 8th
Post-Origin position: 12th
Record: 1-4
Beat Sydney Roosters 24-16, lost to Manly 21-20, lost to Penrith 24-20, lost to Brisbane 30-20, lost to North Queensland 31-18
Origin players: Josh Papalii
Health report: Josh Hodgson missed a week with a calf injury but the Raiders have avoided serious injuries this season for the most part.
Run home: Dragons, Storm, Rabbitohs (away), Sharks (away), Warriors (away), Panthers, Knights, Storm (away).
Prognosis: The Origin period has been an absolute disaster for the Raiders with the two heartbreaking losses to Manly and Penrith seemingly shattering the confidence of the league’s biggest confidence team. The losses to the Broncos, who had half their roster backing up and were without a host of key players, and the depleted Cowboys were a show of how bad things have gotten. A tough run home, which will see them take on Melbourne twice and Cronulla away, makes a finals berth unlikely.
SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
Pre-Origin position: 13th
Post-Origin position: 12th
Record: 2-3
Lost to Parramatta 22-16, lost to Brisbane 24-18, beat Gold Coast 36-20, beat Penrith 42-14, lost to Roosters 14-12
Origin players: None
Health report: Hymel Hunt is out indefinitely with a hand injury but, having lost Greg Inglis for the year in Round 1, the Rabbitohs have no other major injuries to report.
Run home: Cowboys, Sharks (away), Raiders, Dragons (away), Bulldogs, Warriors, Storm (away), Eels (away)
Prognosis: The Rabbitohs have shown little ability to compete with the top teams this season and the loss to the Origin-depleted Roosters last week should put the final nail in their finals hopes. Barring a complete turnaround in form, they should start planning for 2018.
CANTERBURY BULLDOGS
Pre-Origin position: 11th
Post-Origin position: 13th
Record: 2-3
Lost to Penrith 38-0, beat St George Illawarra 16-2, lost to New Zealand 21-14, lost to Parramatta 13-12, beat Newcastle 20-18
Origin players: Josh Jackson, David Klemmer, Brett Morris
Health report: Greg Eastwood will be out for another three weeks with a knee injury but the bigger loss is James Graham, who has struggled with a neck injury for some weeks.
Run home: Bye, Broncos (away), Panthers (away), Eels, Rabbitohs (away), Sea Eagles, Titans (away), Dragons (away)
Prognosis: They needed two tries in the last five minutes to beat Newcastle. I think we can put a line through them this season.
GOLD COAST TITANS
Pre-Origin position: 11th
Post-Origin position: 14th
Record: 2-3
Lost to North Queensland 20-8, lost to New Zealand 34-12, lost to South Sydney 36-20, beat Tigers 26-14, beat St George Illawarra 20-10
Origin players: Jarryd Hayne, Jarrod Wallace, Nathan Peats
Health report: Oh man, how long have you got? The Titans have been ripped apart by injury all season and at various stages have missed Kane Elgey, Tyrone Roberts, Chris McQueen and Leivaha Pulu while also losing Chris Grevsmuhl and Dan Sarginson for the rest of the year.
Run home: Sharks, Panthers (away), Tigers, Broncos, Dragons (away), Eels (away), Bulldogs, Roosters (away)
Prognosis: The Titans are better than their record suggests and if the Sharks rest some of their players this weekend they could be looking at three straight wins heading into the derby with Brisbane. But they have left themselves a lot to do and despite the confidence gained from their recent two-match winning streak, a finals berth seems very unlikely.
WESTS TIGERS
Pre-Origin position: 15th
Post-Origin position: 15th
Record: 1-4
Lost to St George Illawarra 16-12, lost to Sydney Roosters 40-18, lost to Cronulla 24-22, lost to Gold Coast 26-14, beat Newcastle 33-12
Origin players: Aaron Woods, James Tedesco
Health report: Chris Lawrence, Josh Aloiai and Tim Grant have all be struck down in the last few weeks but are expected to be back before long.
Run home: Sea Eagles (away), Eels, Titans (away), Panthers (away), Sea Eagles, Roosters, Cowboys, Warriors
Prognosis: The wooden spoon won’t be coming to Concord but a finals berth is too far gone. There are one or two winnable games in their last few weeks though.
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
Pre-Origin position: 16th
Post-Origin position: 16th
Record: 0-5
Lost to Melbourne 40-12, lost to Manly 18-14, lost to St George Illawarra 32-18, lost to Wests Tigers 33-12, lost to Canterbury 20-18
Origin players: Dane Gagai
Health report: Skipper Sione Mata’utia and mid-season recruit Shaun Kenny-Dowall are both out for a couple of weeks with the latter expected to play his first game for the club in Round 20.
Run home: Broncos, Roosters (away), Dragons, Warriors, Eels (away), Storm, Raiders (away), Sharks
Prognosis: The spoon seems bound for the Hunter once again, but Newcastle might fancy their chances against the Dragons and Warriors at home and could trouble Canberra given they beat the Raiders earlier this season.
Originally published as NRL finals: How has State of Origin impacted your club’s playoffs push?
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