NRL 2024 Run Home, predicted ladder: Brisbane Broncos’ season on life support
Brisbane will need a miracle to resurrect their season now as the heat turns up on the last eight rounds before NRL finals. See which teams can and can’t make the finals.
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The scramble is on for a place in the NRL finals, a spot in the coveted top four, while for some, it’s about pride and avoiding the wooden spoon.
The difference between the Bulldogs in fifth, and the Raiders in 11th is just four points which turns up the heat over the next two months, while the Broncos need a miracle to claim a top-eight finish.
Halfbacks Nathan Cleary and Jamal Fogarty have been named to start this week in two big returns from injury while fellow No.7 Adam Reynolds has been selected on an extended bench for a desperate Brisbane (13th) for Saturday’s clash with Newcastle (10th) which could make all the difference to the ladder, while Parramatta and the Wests Tigers are in a race to the bottom.
Only a hot streak can save a few clubs now.
We’ve crunched the numbers and found the teams set to buckle, those with an easy draw and the teams who might just sneak into the finals after a wild ride.
Let the games begin.
MELBOURNE STORM
Current position: 1st (32 points, 13 wins, 3 losses, 3 byes, +125 points differential)
Whaley’s prediction: 1st (46pts, 21 wins, 3 losses)
Run home: Roosters (w), Eels (w), Dragons (w), Rabbitohs (w), Panthers (w), Dolphins (w), Cowboys (w), Broncos (w)
Verdict: Somehow Melbourne just keep on winning. Without Cameron Munster for most of the season, as well as Ryan Papenhuyzen, Xavier Coates, Nelson Asofa-Solomona and Jahrome Hughes through parts of the year the Storm have only lost three games all year and are gunning for their first minor premiership since 2021. Last week was their last bye of the year and they now have a big finish to the year starting with the Roosters in Melbourne. They should keep winning, though, and their biggest test will be against Penrith with Nathan Cleary back in action in Round 24.
PENRITH PANTHERS
Current position: 2nd (28 points, 11 wins, 5 losses 3 byes, +116pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 2nd (42pts, 18 wins, 6 losses)
Run home: Dolphins (w), Dragons (w), Knights (w), Eels (w), Storm (l), Raiders (w), Rabbitohs (w), Titans (w)
Verdict: The three-time premiers have named Nathan Cleary to return from a hamstring injury to face the Dolphins on Sunday. Once all their Origin stars return (potentially backing up against the Dolphins, if not, the Dragons) they have the class to charge into the finals with a fairly soft draw to finish the season after some off-brand losses recently. Melbourne is still their biggest worry.
SYDNEY ROOSTERS
Current position: 3rd (26 points, 11 wins, 6 losses, 2 byes, +225pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 3rd (38 pts, 17 wins, 7 losses)
Run home: Storm, (l), Sea Eagles (w), Dolphins (w), bye, Eels (w), Titans (w), Raiders (w), Rabbitohs (w)
Verdict: The Roosters have scored more points than any other team in the competition with a whopping 522 and their insane points differential will be a huge advantage in the fight for a top-four finish. The scary thing is they still have a bye up their sleeve in Round 23, and their last four games of the season are against teams outside the top eight. Joseph Manu is still out with a broken hand but could be back as early as next week while Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii returns from suspension against Melbourne, just in time for the biggest test of their premiership credentials. Naufahu Whyte comes into the squad for the Storm clash for Jared Waerea-Hargreaves who is serving the first game of his four-match ban for a high shot against the Dragons.
CRONULLA SHARKS
Current position: 4th (26 points, 11 wins, 6 losses, 2 byes, +125pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 6th (30pts, 13 wins, 11 losses)
Run home: Bye, Cowboys (l), Rabbitohs (w), Titans (l), Knights (l), Dragons (w), Warriors (l), Sea Eagles (l)
Verdict: Losing Nicho Hynes until the finals is a huge blow to Cronulla’s title hopes, but they were faltering even before their star halfback went down with a broken leg and syndesmosis rupture at training with concerning losses to Eels and Titans. A huge win over the Tigers will be a big boost to their confidence, as well as a good draw to finish the season. But their grip on the top four is slipping and they’ll face desperate sides on the run home which makes the task even more difficult. Just making the finals isn’t enough this year though for the Sharks. They’ve lost all three finals games under Fitzgibbon (in 2022 and 2023), and haven’t won one at all since 2018.
CANTERBURY BULLDOGS
Current position: 5th (24 points, 9 wins, 7 losses, 3 byes, +65pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 5th (32 pts, 13 wins, 11 losses)
Run home: Cowboys (l), Broncos (l), Raiders (w), Dragons (w), Dolphins (w), Warriors (l), Sea Eagles (l), Cowboys (w)
Verdict: Fresh off a bye, the Bulldogs are readying for a big run into their first finals appearance since 2016. Leading into last week’s bye they won five of their last six games, including two golden-point wins, but they’ll want to be more convincing to finish off the year. They face the Cowboys twice, the Broncos at Suncorp and the Warriors in Auckland among a tough run home but if they can win four of eight games they’re guaranteed a top eight finish.
DOLPHINS
Current position: 6th (24 points, 9 wins, 7 losses, 3 byes, +48pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 10th (28 pts, 11 wins, 13 losses)
Run home: Panthers (l), Titans (l), Roosters (l), Warriors (w), Bulldogs (l), Storm (l), Broncos (l), Knights (w)
Verdict: The Dolphins have been the surprise of 2024 but if they’re the real deal they’ll have to do something special to prove it in the next two months. They have no byes left and have one of the hardest draws to finish the year against the all top three sides (Panthers, Roosters and Storm) as well as in form Bulldogs and Knights, Rabbitohs and Broncos on the fight for a finals finish. They’ll need to win four of their last seven games to be sure to play finals, and with injuries piling up it could be a bridge too far.
MANLY SEA EAGLES
Current position: 7th (23 points, 9 wins, 7 losses, 1 draw, 2 byes, +67pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 4th (35 pts, 15 wins, 8 losses, 1 draw)
Run home: Titans (w), Roosters (l), bye, Raiders (w), Warriors (w), Tigers (w), Bulldogs (w), Sharks (w)
Verdict: The Sea Eagles can beat anyone on their day, especially when Tom Trbojevic is on the field. He bounced back into form against the Knights on Sunday with 145 running metres, three tackle-breaks, five linebreak assists, a try and two try-assists to prove he’s still got the juice. Manly need him. They host Des Hasler’s resurgent Titans on Sunday before taking on the Roosters at Allianz Stadium in Round 21 which will be their biggest test on the run home.
NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS
Current position: 8th (22pts, 9 wins, 8 losses, 2 byes, +1pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 8th (30 pts, 12 wins, 12 losses)
Run home: Bulldogs (w), Sharks (w), Tigers (w), Broncos (l), Raiders (w), bye, Storm (l), Bulldogs (l)
Verdict: It looked like another year wasted for the Cowboys after five losses in a row but they’ve steadily turned their season around over the past two months. They’ve now won five of their past seven games, including a shock 16-6 win over the Panthers in Penrith and an 18-16 victory against the Roosters in Sydney. They’ll need to do it again on the run home with games against the Bulldogs, Sharks and Melbourne, but they play all but two games at home from now on and still have a bye up their sleeve.
ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS
Current position: 9th (22 points, 9 wins, 8 losses, 2 byes, – 56 pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 12th (26pts, 11 wins, 13 losses)
Run home: Bye, Panthers (l), Storm (l), Bulldogs (l), Titans (w), Sharks (l), Eels (l), Raiders (w)
Verdict: They’ve shown massive signs of improvement this year and look a different team under Shane Flanagan. A win over the Broncos last week proved they’ve turned a corner, and they’re within a chance of playing in the finals for the first time since 2018. However, they will need to win at least four of their last seven games for it to be a realistic opportunity, and even then it comes down to a mathematical chance given their points differential. It could get worse still – particularly against Penrith and Melbourne in a fortnight of terror.
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
Current position: 10th (20 points, 8 wins, 9 losses, 2 byes, -81pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 9th (28pts, 12 wins, 12 losses)
Run home: Broncos (l), bye, Panthers (l), Tigers (w), Sharks (w), Rabbitohs (w), Titans (w), Dolphins (l)
Verdict: A huge loss to Manly without Kalyn Ponga, Bradman Best and Dane Gagai did not help their finals chances, but they have a decent draw to finish the year and can do it if they win the majority of remaining games. Their biggest tests will come against the Panthers in Penrith and the Sharks in Cronulla but otherwise they have a favourable draw to take advantage of. They need to be careful not to leave it up to the last round of the year against Wayne Bennett’s Dolphins - he loves nothing more than beating his former teams.
CANBERRA RAIDERS
Current position: 11th (20 points, 7 wins, 9 losses, 3 byes, -93pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 13th (24pts, 9 wins, 15 losses)
Run home: Warriors (w), Rabbitohs (w), Bulldogs (l), Sea Eagles (l), Cowboys (l), Panthers (l), Roosters (l), Dragons (l)
Verdict: The Raiders went into the bye with four losses in a row and they face an uphill battle to make the finals. Halfback Jamal Fogarty has been named to make his long-awaited return from injury and is a player very capable of reigniting the side for a finals push. Fogarty’s long kicking game and ability to steer the team around the park has been sorely missed by Ricky Stuart’s team.
WARRIORS
Current position: 12th (19 points, 7 wins, 9 losses, 1 draw, 2 byes, -32pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 11th (27 pts, 11 wins, 12 losses, 1 draw)
Run home: Raiders (l), Tigers (w), Eels (w), Dolphins (l), Sea Eagles (l), Bulldogs (w), Sharks (w), bye
Verdict: If the Warriors are going to back up their amazing 2023 season with another finals appearance they’ll need to banish their inconsistencies for good. Suffered a huge blow during the week losing captain Tohu Harris for the season after he had wrist surgery on Monday night. They’re way down the ladder, but they’re definitely a chance to make it with a bye in the last round, too. Their next seven games are entirely winnable if they’re on, but they’ll need to rely on a streak.
BRISBANE BRONCOS
Current position: 13th (18 points, 7 wins, 10 losses, 2 byes, + 9dp)
Whaley’s prediction: 7th (30pts, 13 wins, 11 losses)
Run home: Knights (w), Bulldogs (w), Titans (w), Cowboys (w), bye, Eels (w), Dolphins (w), Storm (l)
Verdict: The Broncos were off the boil before a loss to the Dragons poured cold water on their season. They’re desperate now. Adam Reynolds has been named on extended bench to face the Knights on Saturday, but from 13th on the ladder they can’t afford another loss if they want a guarantee to even make the top eight. They will be a mathematical chance coming into the last round against Melbourne if they win every game, so a loss at any point could be a killer.
GOLD COAST TITANS
Current position: 14th (18 points, 6 wins, 10 losses, 3 byes, -59 pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 14th (22pts, 8 wins, 16 losses)
Run home: Sea Eagles (l), Dolphins (w), Broncos (l), Sharks (w), Dragons (l), Roosters (l), Knights (l), Panthers (l)
Verdict: After a miserable start to the year they’ve strung together three wins in a row for the first time, beating the Warriors, Sharks and Eels. It’s still a pretty impossible task though. They’ll need to keep winning to have a chance to make finals, but their improvement has been a big win for Des Hasler’s men.
SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
Current position: 15th (18 points, 6 wins, 10 losses, 3 byes, -104pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 15th (22pts, 8 wins, 16 losses)
Run home: Tigers (w), Raiders (l), Sharks (l), Storm (l), Tigers (w), Knights (l), Panthers (l), Roosters (l)
Verdict: Losing Latrell Mitchell for at least the next month will hit Souths hard just as they’re getting back on their feet. The only positive is that Mitchell won’t require season-ending surgery, which gives him a chance to return for the last month of football. A loss to the Dolphins ended a five-game winning streak, and they have no byes left with games against Penrith in Penrith, Melbourne and the Roosters to cap off a brutal end to the season. Even if they pull off a miracle and win more games than expected, their points differential is a big worry.
PARRAMATTA EELS
Current position: 16th (12 points, 4 wins, 13 losses, 2 byes, -153pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 16th (16pts, 6 wins, 18 losses)
Run home: Bye, Storm (l), Warriors (l), Panthers (l), Roosters (l), Broncos (l), Dragons (w), Tigers (w)
Verdict: The Eels enjoy the bye this week and desperately need to freshen up for a brutal month ahead which kicks off against Melbourne before facing the Warriors away and then the Panthers and Roosters. Parra were shocking against the Titans which is frustrating considering the team they have on paper. Once halfback Mitch Moses is back from Origin duty they are a chance of jagging a few wins, potentially against the Dragons and incoming recruit Zac Lomax in round 26, but all they’re competing for this year is to avoid the wooden spoon.
WESTS TIGERS
Current position: 17th (12 points, 4 wins, 13 losses, 2 byes, -203 pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 17th (12pts, 4 wins, 20 losses)
Run home: Rabbitohs (l), Warriors (l), Cowboys (l), Knights (l), Rabbitohs (l), Sea Eagles (l), bye, Eels (l)
Verdict: Discipline and commitment has been woeful at the Tigers this year and they find themselves rightly at the bottom of the ladder again. It’s sad for fans, who have endured back-to-back wooden spoons and are staring down another. All they need to do to avoid it is win more games than the Eels, but it could come down to round 27 to decide the honour.
Originally published as NRL 2024 Run Home, predicted ladder: Brisbane Broncos’ season on life support
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