KFC SuperCoach NRL strength of schedule: Players set for fast/slow starts revealed

There are definite winners and definite losers from the draw for the opening eight rounds of the 2023 NRL season – we reveal where your club sits.

It’s time for our Strength of Schedule (SOS) bumper edition where we try and identify those teams, and players, who should get a quick jump out of the gates.

Every little edge helps when looking to beat your mates at KFC SuperCoach NRL.

Hopefully the next few thousand words will provide that edge.

METHODOLOGY

I have ranked each NRL team using a highly scientific approach – well sort of scientific approach – based on:

* The average PPM (points per minute) conceded to all opponents by a team in 2022.

* The actual number of points conceded over the NRL regular season by that team, and

* The number of times a team leaked 80+ KFC SuperCoach points per game to any one opponent.

And you know I love a caveat so here’s this one – prior performance is of course not a guide to future performance.

Latrell Mitchell and Payne Haas both have rather difficult draws.

KFC SuperCoach defensive rankings (2022):

1. Storm

2. Panthers

3. Cowboys

4. Sharks

5. Roosters

6. Raiders

7. Rabbitohs

8. Eels *

9. Sea Eagles

10. Bulldogs

11. Broncos

12. Dragons

13. Titans

14. Dolphins **

15. Warriors

16. Knights

17. Wests Tigers ***

Some notes:

* Yeah I know the Eels made the grand final, but they also conceded the most points of any top-eight team (in real life and SuperCoach).

** I had to fit the Dolphins in somewhere so unscientifically slotted them fourth worst.

*** The Tigers have recruited really well in the off-season adding significant star power to their pack. It would surprise me if they finish 2023 as the worst defensive team but I get in trouble when I add subjective elements to SuperCoach...

The introduction of the Dolphins to the NRL means there is one team on the bye each week. Picture: Steve Pohlner

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE AND KFC SUPERCOACH

Before you scroll down to see which teams fared well and which didn’t let’s take a quick pause to check which players benefit most from an ‘easy’ draw and which players don’t.

We’ve been doing this story for a few years now and a clear trend has emerged showing that:

* No position is immune from SOS though props and second row are least impacted,

* As expected, halves see a significant decline in KFC SuperCoach scores when facing the better defensive units,

* Fullback is the position most significantly impacted by SOS,

* Hookers are more susceptible to SOS variations than other forwards, no doubt due to their playmaker role within a spine, and

* CTW is the backline position least impacted by SOS.

2023 FIRST EIGHT ROUNDS STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE AND ANALYSIS (best draw to worst)

NB I have assigned a ‘bye’ as equal to playing the middle of the pack Sea Eagles in an attempt to even the field between teams that have a bye and those that don’t. It’s not a perfect solution but the best I could think of.

1. COWBOYS: Raiders, Broncos, Warriors, Titans, Bulldogs, Dolphins, Warriors, Knights

SOS Score: 44

Analysis: Talk about a dream opening draw; the Cowboys aren’t just the only team with a SOS score in the 40s, they are the only team below the 60s! They only face one top-8 (on 2022 ladder and my SOS ranks) team in the opening eight weeks (Raiders, Rd1) and that game is at home on what promises to be a sultry Saturday evening in early March.

The Cowboys are set for a flying start due to a very friendly schedule. Picture: NRL Photos

2. STORM: Eels, Bulldogs, Titans, Tigers, Rabbitohs, Roosters, Sea Eagles, Warriors

SOS Score: 60

Analysis: The Storm have three ‘hard’ games against Eels, Rabbitohs and Roosters offset by three ‘easy’ games against the Titans, Tigers and Warriors with the Bulldogs and Sea Eagles rounding out the mix. Plenty of travel with four away games and four at home (but the Storm are past masters at travel). No bye though it does come right after this period falling in round nine.

3. KNIGHTS: Warriors, Tigers, Dolphins, Raiders, Sea Eagles, Warriors, Panthers, Cowboys

SOS Score: 63

Analysis: The Knights are drawn to get off to a flyer with just one top-eight opponent in their opening six matches. It’s a tough finish to the period though with the Panthers then Cowboys. No bye which is a SuperCoach bonus.

4. TITANS: Tigers, Dragons, Storm, Cowboys, Bye, Dragons, Broncos, Dolphins

SOS Score: 64

Analysis: It’s tough in rounds three (Storm) and four (Cowboys) then a bye in round five. Outside of that Titans players are projected to score rather well.

Tino Fa'asuamaleaui and the Titans have a decent start to the season. Picture: Chris Hyde/Getty Images

5. WESTS TIGERS: Titans, Knights, Bulldogs, Storm, Broncos, Eels, Bye, Sea Eagles

SOS Score: 66

Analysis: We’re moving very much into middle territory here with SOS scores between around 65-75 not tremendously bad nor good. There are reasons to think the Tigers will get off to a hot start though. Firstly, the new recruits Apisai Koroisau, Isaiah Papali’i, David Klemmer and John Bateman significantly improve the pack. And then there’s the draw which sees them start their season against the Titans and Knights with both games played at the club’s spiritual home (sorry Wests fans) Leichhardt Oval.

6. DRAGONS: Bye, Titans, Broncos, Sharks, Dolphins, Titans, Raiders, Roosters

SOS Score: 68

Analysis: I can confidently assert the Dragons will not lose in round one. Of course they won’t win either what with them having a bye to start the season but you know I like to stay positive when it comes to the Dragons. The Dragons are on the road a bit with two trips to Queensland (Broncos at Suncorp and Titans at Cbus) and the Raiders away in Canberra too.

7. BRONCOS: Panthers, Cowboys, Dragons, Dolphins, Tigers, Raiders, Titans, Eels

SOS Score: 69

Analysis: A nasty start to the season (Penrith away then Cowboys) so hopefully for Kevvie Walters’ sake he gets his contract extension locked away before round one. Then again this is THE Broncos so they get looked after elsewhere with sweet turnarounds (four Friday night and four Saturday night games) and just two trips outside of Queensland in the opening eight weeks. The round eight match against the Eels is in Darwin. Incidentally, I’ll never understand why the Eels don’t insist on that game being against teams like the Warriors or Raiders who might struggle in the heat and humidity but instead play it against either the Cowboys or Broncos...

Kevin Walters and the Broncos have two very tough games to start the season. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Dan Peled

8. PANTHERS: Broncos, Rabbitohs, Bye, Eels, Raiders, Sea Eagles, Knights, Rabbitohs

SOS Score: 70

Analysis: With the Rabbitohs (twice), Raiders (in Canberra), a local slugfest derby against the Eels and a bye in round three this is not the most SC friendly of opening draws for the Panthers. There’s also a five-day turnaround thrown in for good measure (between round 7 away to Newcastle then round 8 away to Rabbitohs).

9. SHARKS: Rabbitohs, Eels, Raiders, Dragons, Warriors, Bye, Roosters, Bulldogs

SOS Score: 71

Analysis: Blessed with a pretty kind draw in 2022, the Sharks have once again been looked after by the NRL in 2023 (they have just one five-day turnaround over the season and have the second-fewest number of top-8 opponents to play). Buuuut in the opening eight rounds the draw is not quite so SuperCoach friendly with away games against Eels and Raiders alongside home matches against the Rabbitohs and Roosters and a round six bye.

10. DOLPHINS: Roosters, Raiders, Knights, Broncos, Dragons, Cowboys, Rabbitohs, Titans

SOS Score: 71

Analysis: Four easy and four hard combination for the league’s newest team. No early byes and just two trips out of the Sunshine State for the NRL’s hothouse flowers so all in all not a bad draw here.

The Raiders are used to the Canberra cold but have three trips to the humidity of Queensland in the opening rounds. Picture: AAP Image/Lukas Coch.

11. RAIDERS: Cowboys, Dolphins, Sharks, Knights, Panthers, Broncos, Dragons, Bye

SOS Score: 72

Analysis: Three trips to Queensland early in the year is going to test the Green Machine’s ability to handle humidity. Play two of their tougher opponents (Sharks and Panthers) at home though which is a win.

12. ROOSTERS: Dolphins, Warriors, Rabbitohs, Bye, Eels, Storm, Sharks, Dragons

SOS Score: 73

Analysis: With the Dolphins (away) then Warriors (home) in their first fortnight the Roosters’ attacking players should get 2023 off to a fast start. Things get sticky after that though with the Rabbitohs, bye, Eels, Storm and Sharks all tough to score on – and even the Dragons will be tough what with it being the traditional ANZAC Day slugfest.

13. SEA EAGLES: Bulldogs, Bye, Eels, Rabbitohs, Knights, Panthers, Storm, Tigers

SOS Score: 75

Analysis: Just one trip out of Sydney (a home game in Mudgee) is a win for Manly, then again their supporters seem to feel passports are required for any journey more than 5km from 4 Pines Park so a game in Campbelltown might as well be in Timbuktu … The Eels, Rabbitohs, Panthers and Storm will be tough and even two of the ‘easy’ opponents in Bulldogs and Tigers are, on paper at least, far superior in 2023 than they were in 2022. Throw in a round two bye and you could be forgiven for avoiding all Sea Eagles to start the season.

Josh Schuster is the most popular player in KFC SuperCoach. But is he worth it given his tough early draw?

14. BULLDOGS: Sea Eagles, Storm, Tigers, Warriors, Cowboys, Rabbitohs, Eels, Sharks

SOS Score: 80

Analysis: We’re into the legit ‘tough draw’ SOS scores now. As mentioned above, the Bulldogs of 2023 will be better than 2022 with Reed Mahoney guiding them in the middle and Viliame Kikau adding attacking punch on an edge. That said, it’s not hard to see them starting 2023 with just two or three wins from their opening eight games

15. EELS: Storm, Sharks, Sea Eagles, Panthers, Roosters, Tigers, Bulldogs, Broncos

SOS Score: 85

Analysis: Not one ‘gimme’ game in the opening eight for the 2022 grand final losers and a particularly brutal opening five matches only somewhat ameliorated by the fact that they play three of those five at ‘fortress’ CommBank Stadium.

16. WARRIORS: Knights, Roosters, Cowboys, Bulldogs, Sharks, Knights, Cowboys, Storm

SOS Score: 86

Analysis: You know the Warriors draw must be bad when they can still post the second-worst SOS score despite having two matches against the lowly ranked Knights within the first eight. With the Cowboys twice, Storm in Melbourne and Roosters and Sharks in Sydney (not to mention the Roosters again in round nine) our Kiwi cousins could be bottom of the table early doors.

17. RABBITOHS: Sharks, Panthers, Roosters, Sea Eagles, Storm, Bulldogs, Dolphins, Panthers

SOS Score: 97

Analysis: The Rabbitohs have a horror draw to open the season with five top eight teams including the SuperCoach poison Panthers twice. They also get just a five-day turnaround between their round one (away) match against the Sharks into round two (away) against the Panthers.

Originally published as KFC SuperCoach NRL strength of schedule: Players set for fast/slow starts revealed