Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy: Rosehill Gardens

TAB BIG BETS: THE Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy analyse all nine races at Rosehill.

THE Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy analyse all nine races at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

TOP TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

RACE WATCH: DAVO’S TIPS FOR ROSEHILL

SPRING CARNIVAL: THE DATES THAT MATTER

DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS

BEST BET

Race 4, No. 4 — ALWARD

BEST VALUE

Race 5, No. 1 — DESTINY’S KISS

Race 8, No. 12 — MAPMAKER

Race 9, No. 4 — NO DOUBT

R1 (12.05pm): TAB HIGHWAY (1100m)

Thomas: Lifesaver was terrific first-up when he duelled with Another Sin before going under narrowly over the Rosehill 1100m course. Lifesaver was resuming after a long spell last start and he should take natural improvement from that run. Drawn well, should settle on speed here and should prove very hard to beat. Mossman Gorge was impressive at Kembla Grange, running swift sectionals. Nic’s Vendetta is always competitive in these races and Red Knot can sprint well fresh.

Dufficy: I can’t improve on that, Ray. I can’t see Lifesaver going backwards on his first-up effort, he drops 2.5kg and looks ready to win. The only negative is there is plenty of pressure upfront but I still have him top pick. Mossman Gorge did look good at Kembla and is a threat to the favourite. Red Knot is a smart horse and, although this is short of his best, he can make his presence felt and Nic’s Vendetta always runs well in these TAB Highways.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Lifesaver $2.50-$1.95- $2 ($2,000 @ $2.50, $400 @ $2.50, $527 @ $1.95), Levee Bank $21-$11 ($1,000 @ $19 averaged out)

Boo Bailey's cartoon tip for Rosehill.

R2 (12.45pm): PRO IT HCP (1500m)

Thomas: I thought the top two are the ones to beat and I am leaning to Chatuchak over Awoke. Chatuchak is only lightly-raced but she is a handy mare who comes into this race off a strong win at the provincials, where she broke 34s for her final 600m. Awoke is a big threat and has had a trial between runs. She is going very well. Mariquita always runs on well and Prada Miss is racing consistently. Competitive race.

Dufficy: I’m the same again. I just think with the likely scratching of Gretna, who ran Wednesday, there is not a lot of early speed and it could play to Chatuchak. She is the one going from 1200m to 1500m and might have the speed in her legs to give her the edge. Awoke looks very well placed and will go close. Mariquita will appreciate getting out to 1500m and Prada Miss is very honest.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Awoke $3-$2.60, Eva Jean $26-$18

R3 (1.20pm): ASX THOMSON REUTERS HCP (1100m)

Thomas: I’m pretty keen on Tango Rain. He was having his first run after 11 months when a solid first-up third behind Sangiovese. He will be fitter again and was placed in the San Domenico Stakes at this meeting last year. Improvement is a very good mare who resumes here. She looked in super order in a recent Warwick Farm trial. Isorich is over the odds yet again but will run a race and of course I will be giving Cosmopol a cheer.

Dufficy: I’m with Marsupial. I think he can give them a fright here. He looked promising as an early season two-year-old and I’ve loved his two trials going into this race. With only 53kg, he can measure up to this field. Skylight Glow resumes off a long spell but she has shaped well in two trials. Improvement’s trial was great and she is an underrated, tough mare who won four straight last preparation. Pumpkin Pie is resuming but has ability.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Marsupial $5-$4.60 ($250 @ $5, $1,000 @ $4.60)

R4 (1.55pm): PACIFIC BOATING HCP (2000m)

Thomas: Alward could not have been more impressive at Flemington as he raced clear of his rivals, winning with authority and running a good final 600m sectional. A former French stayer, he looks a quality type and has a lot of upside. Miss Dubois has put two very good runs back-to-back since joining the Matthew Dunn stable and she is over the odds here. Not A Gypsy has been improved by two runs from a spell and it is hard to knock the unbeaten Chatelard but this is a tough test.

Dufficy: I’m convinced Alward is the bet of the day. He looks a really good horse and I loved the way he ran straight through the line beating some handy horse very easily last start. He looks the real deal and could develop into a lightweight The Metropolitan chance. Not A Gypsy will run well while I have to give Vaucluse Bay another chance after he was found to have cardiac arrhythmia. Miss Dubois has been very consistent for her new stable but I think Alward is the best bet on the program.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Alward $3.60-$2.60-$2.40 ($350 @ $2.80, $5,000 @ $2.60, $1,200 @ $2.60, $1,000 @ $2.60, $500 @ $2.60, $400 @ $2.60, $260 @ $2.60)

Alward has been well backed to win his second straight race on Saturday at Rosehill.

R5 (2.30pm): PREMIER’S CUP (1900m)

Thomas: I was impressed by King Viv’s last-start effort when he showed a good burst of speed to race past Not A Gypsy to score over 2000m here two weeks ago. This is a step up in grade but he does drop 5kg, he’s very fit and is good value. Destiny’s Kiss is also over the odds. The veteran stayer is in good form and, although he prefers wet tracks, he is effective on top of the ground. Classic Uniform and Broadside are both tough, on-pace stayers with good chances.

Dufficy: I can’t believe the $14 offered for Destiny’s Kiss. I think it is a ridiculous price for a good stayer who is in a race that sets up nicely for him with the likelihood of a solid speed upfront. I liked him a lot particularly at the price. Broadside is an improving stayer who has had a short break but goes into this race after two trials. He is very likeable with no weight. Classic Uniform is racing in good form and he did win at his only try over this trip. Loyalty Man is better than what we saw last start.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Destiny’s Kiss $14 unchanged ($5,000 @ $14), King Viv $8.50-$6.50 ($400 @ $8.50, $200 @ $8.50, $500 @ $7.50, $200 @ $7.50 TWICE)

R6 (3.05pm): MING DYNASTY QUALITY (1400m)

Thomas: There are some promising three-year-olds in this field but I am leaning to Mahalangur. I was taken by the way he attacked the line on debut at Newcastle and he will appreciate getting out to 1400m. I know it is a big jump in grade from a provincial maiden straight into a Group 3 race but he looks a smart type and is worth a gamble in a competitive race. Astoria has always had a bit of a boom on him but he was hampered by wet tracks during the autumn. The Team Snowden duo of Hypnotist and Assimilate are unbeaten and obviously above average. I’ve left out the favourite, Addictive Nature, Sambro and Runaway but it is that sort of race, Ron.

Dufficy: It is an even race. I want to give Addictive Nature another chance. He had excuses last start when he found himself in front from barrier one, he was attacked for the lead, and still held on for second. I feel he is better drawn out so he can take his time getting over, he can settle into a nice rhythm and I like him over 1400m. Assimilate is the definite danger. His form reads very well, particularly after Dracarys won last week. I agree Mahalangur looks hard to beat. He was heavily back on debut at Newcastle and was very strong late to win well. I’ve always had an opinion of Sambro and he has the residual fitness coming through a Brisbane winter campaign.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Assimilate $7-$6 ($1,000 @ $6), Addictive Nature $3.50-$3.90, Animalia $5-$4.80, Runaway $9-$6

R7 (3.45pm): SAN DOMENICO STAKES (1100m)

Thomas: Pariah was among the better two-year-olds last season, although he didn’t have much luck after winning the Canonbury Stakes on debut. His effort to run second in the Blue Diamond after enduring a torrid run was outstanding. Judging on his two recent trials, he looks to have returned in super order. If Blake Shinn can find some cover early, then Pariah can outsprint them late. Condor Heroes has always shown a stack of ability and he is ready to deliver this spring. He is also trialling well and looks the main danger. Chauffeur will be charging home and I will be interested to see what Jorda can produce first-up after her long break as she is a quality filly.

Dufficy: The dogs are barking about how well Pariah has come back this time in. His trials have been great and with speed on upfront in this race, it sets up for a run-on horse like him. All he needs is a back to follow early. I also rate Condor Heroes as the danger. He has looked sharp in his trials and will run very well. Madeenaty is a quality filly and her form around Crown Witness reads well. She has a fitness edge over her rivals here. Taking Aim is another promising colt and I expect him to be running on strongly.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Pariah $2.80-$2.90-$2.40-$2.50 ($200 @ $2.80 MULTIPLE TIMES, $400 @ $2.90, $1,000 @ 2.50, $500 @ $2.40, $400 @ $2.40), Taking Aim $12-$10 ($5,000 @ $12), Condor Heroes $6-$5.50, Another Sin $51-$26- $19, Madeenaty $11-$9.50- $7.50, Jorda $8-$7.50- $6.50

Pariah has come back in great order for the spring and will be hard to beat in the San Domenico.

R8 (4.25pm): LINDT HCP (1500m)

Thomas: Special Missile has been taken through the classes superbly by trainer John Thompson and he is on target for his fifth win in succession. He has good gate speed, settles on the pace and makes his own luck. There is no reason why he can’t win again. The Pharoah is in good form but the 1500m is a slight query. Hogmanay ran a blinder first-up and Francesco is always thereabouts in this grade but is finding it hard to win.

Dufficy: I have found one at long odds in Mapmaker. I know Special Missile had his measure the other day but Mapmaker looked like he needed the run when he ran a good second. Mapmaker is third-up drawn well and is at double-figure odds. I want to be on him. Hogmanay is the danger as he was very good when resuming and is better suited out to 1500m. He has won his only two starts over this course and distance. I have no knock on Special Missile and after the claim he is carrying the same weight he had last start. The Pharoah is on trial at the trip but he is a genuine galloper.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Special Missile $4.60-$4, Mapmaker $15-$13- $12 ($5,000 @ $14)

R9 (5.05pm): FIIG HCP (1200m)

Thomas: I’m sticking with Bonny O’Reilly. She is top-class sprinting mare, a noted first-up performer, she gets a lovely run from the inside gate and she is unbeaten in three starts at Rosehill. Selita is the danger. She did run second to Bonny O’Reilly in a stakes race in Brisbane during the winter and has had a recent run when a good third to Badajoz here two weeks ago. Selita does get 8kg off Bonny O’Reilly here which is significant. Supreme Effort always sprints well fresh and No Doubt was very good first-up and can improve.

Dufficy: I can see where you are coming from but, although I am worried about going off one run early, I was taken by No Doubt’s first-up effort. He was above himself in condition that day and only knocked up late. He will strip fitter today and is great value around $14. I can’t let him go without me. Bonny O’Reilly is the horse to beat as she gets all the favours from the inside barrier. Sir Bacchus has the blinkers going on and I expect he will run well, while Sir Plush had no luck from a wide barrier last start and he could be in a similar situation here.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: No Doubt $15-$11 ($200 @ $15, $300 @ $14, $5,000 @ $13), Denpurr $15-$11- $8.50 ($300 @ $15, $200 @ $13, $300 @ $11, $200 @ $11 TWICE, $5,000 @ $10), Selita $11-$6.50- $5.50 ($500 e/w @ $11/$3.10, $250 @ $9, $250 @ $8, $200 @ $6.50)

SATURDAY EXTRA

SHAYNE O’CASS’S BEST BETS

NEWCASTLE BEAUMONT

BEST BET: REFLECTIVITY (Race 4, No. 2)

A superbly bred son of All Too Hard trained by Team Hawkes who obviously know the stock better than anyone else. This colt has had three runs, including the Black Opal and Champagne Stakes. Resumes in a provincial maiden and has trialled exceedingly well.

NEXT BEST: SMART AS (Race 8, No. 7)

Nick Moraitis owned and bred mare by Exceed And Excel whom he also owned and like this mare, was trained by Tim Martin. Smart As has won two from four and, although she failed last start, she is much better than that. Can hit back hard here.

VALUE: MISSION TYCOON (Race 5, No. 5)

Won his most recent trial by almost six lengths, though it is true the Proride can make them look like champions. Still, he was super slick and is from a form stable.

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

KOBY JENNINGS is aiming for his third successive Saturday provincial double having done it at Newcastle on August 12 then again at Kembla Grange last weekend. He’s every chance to ride three, four or even five winners with some smashing rides.

SUGGESTED BETS

Koby Jennings to win the TAB Jockey’s Challenge

Quinella — Race 3, Nos. 3,4

Quinella — Race 4, Nos, 2,5

QUADDIE

Race 5: 2,5,6,7

Race 6: 1,2,4,8

Race 7: 4

race 8: 1,2,5,7

PORT MACQUARIE

BEST BET: EXELLAS (Race 1, No. 6)

First starter from the powerful Kris Lees camp that has trialled well enough to win this fairly skinny maiden. Bred to excel and draw the fence.

NEXT BEST: JARDINE (Race 5, No. 9)

Has been both costly and disappointing at her past two but looks well placed here. If she can’t win this, she might be galloping off to the breeding barn.

Originally published as Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy: Rosehill Gardens