Rosehill tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy discuss the top chances for the George Main Group 1 Golden Rose meeting at Rosehill to help you find some winners.
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The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy discuss the chances at the feature Golden Rose meeting at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.
SUGGESTED BETS
DUFF’S BETS
Race 4, No.1: CADRE DU NOIR
Race 6, No.1: BEST OF BORDEAUX
VALUE BET
Race 8, No.15: SHE’S EXTREME
RAY’S BEST
Race 6, No.1: BEST OF BORDEAUX
NEXT BEST
Race 9, No.11: OLD FLAME
VALUE BET
Race 7, No.17: DALCHINI
RACE 1: TAB HIGHWAY (1500m)
Ron Dufficy: Impossible race. I’ve landed on Airliner who is the improver. I know he is just out of maiden class but he had too much to do there last time dragging back from the wide draw. He might have to do something similar again. Rebel’s Edge has some Highway form. He was just in the wrong part of the track there last start so I want to be forgiving for that loss. King Of Spades is the best of the rest. He lost momentum at a vital stage of the race last start and should have finished closer. Smooth Esprit has a big chance at good odds if we don’t get too much rain.
Ray Thomas: In a very open race, I don’t mind Mr Eighty Eight each way. He’s been racing well and comes off a close second when shouldering a big weight at Tamworth in very heavy conditions. Drawn well, should get the run of the race and he’s gets in well at the weights after the claim. There are many dangers including Syrian Star who finished powerfully to win at Dubbo last start, Airliner will be charging home and Rebel’s Edge should get the right run.
RACE 2: MIDWAY HCP (1300m)
Dufficy: Mayrose is a big improver. It was a total forgive run from her when she gave away a huge start last time and still hit the line well. An inside draw and 1300m is much more suitable for her. Cool Lad is ready to go now, he’s third up and has no weight on his back. Kote could not have been more impressive winning his heavy track midweek maiden at Canterbury. This is a step up but he looks a horse with style.
Thomas: Oakfield Duke has reeled off four successive wins, all on rain-affected tracks. Typically, he settles midfield in his races but he has a powerful finishing surge. This is his big test but his will-to-win puts him in the mix. Nictock is racing well and deserves a change of luck. He has the early speed to negate his wide barrier and zoom across in front of the field but the last 100m will be the concern. Kote bolted in last start and rates highly with Cruel Summer expected to run a competitive race.
RACE 3: CLEANAWAY HCP (1900m)
Dufficy: I know Hameron had every chance last start and there was no excuse for him but I’m sure he is a better horse than that. They have taken the blinkers off him, the soft track could be the key and I just want to give him another chance. Alcyone is the danger. He was terrific last start after doing all the work outside the leader when coming back in distance. This is the perfect option for him mapping well from the inside draw. I don’t mind the set-up with Caboche. It was just too short for him last start but 1900m on the back-up could be his go. No knock on Wicklow as he lost momentum and should have made it interesting last start but he is short enough in a competitive race.
Thomas: Hameron was dominant first-up at the Kensington midweeks then seemed to run his race in patches at Rosehill when a close third as favourite over 1800m. He looked likely to fade out of contention halfway down the straight but then he was making ground strongly late in the race. He drops 4.5kg and I also believe he deserves another chance. Wicklow is well placed getting out to 1900m and will be hard to beat. A fitter Rousseau can improve and is over the odds. Alcyone is in good form and he did win fourth-up last campaign.
RACE 4: COLIN STEPHEN QUALITY (2400m)
Dufficy: With the rain-affected conditions we are expecting then Cadre Du Noir looks too good for them. He toyed with his rivals from the front last time but he can take a sit here if a couple of the others want to go forward. Grove Ferry is five weeks and a trial since his last run. He is ready to win but 2400m is a question mark. Mohican Heights is very fit now and ready to win, he’s a strong stayer. Herman Hesse’s chances revolved around the track conditions as he is better on the drier tracks.
Thomas: It’s hard to get away from Cadre Du Noir, particularly now with the wet track conditions he enjoys. Absolutely romped home last start in the Tattersalls Cup and looks very hard to beat again. Grove Ferry is an interesting horse. He’s working up to a win and will be right in the mix. Fun Fact is getting to 2400m quickly but his last start effort was very good and he could surprise. Mohican Heights is very fit now and will be competitive.
RACE 5: CITY TATTERSALLS GROUP HCP (1400m)
Dufficy: This is an interesting race with a few resuming. I’ve singled out Diamil. He has been gelded this preparation, his two trials are great, he’s an import having his second Australian preparation, and I expect he will be hard to beat. Arctic Thunder is ready, he’s third up and should have finished closer after being chopped out in the straight last time behind Old Flame. That form should be good enough to put him right in the mix here. Dadoozdart has never won in Australia but his trials are sharp and his best form is on wet tracks. Finepoint is a lightly raced mare down in the weights and is attractive in a race like this.
Thomas: I like Finepoint, Ronnie. She’s a promising mare building a consistent race record and resuming her with only 53kg. Her trials have been good and she should make her presence felt. Diamil rates highly for all the reasons you mentioned. I’ve also got Arctic Thunder in my numbers as she has come up well this spring. Ita scored a tough win last week, she handles rain-affected tracks well and is another well in at the weights.
RACE 6: HERITAGE STAKES (1100m)
Dufficy: Best Of Bordeaux is too good for these. He is nicely placed here after running well in the Run To The Rose. He should be very hard to catch. Semillion is his danger. He has wet form and was far from disgraced in a weight-for-age Group 2 last start so back against his own age he’s well placed here. Plymstock is a filly that might just sit off the hot speed here and charge home. Economics is another trialling very well and the form around his maiden win last preparation is outstanding.
Thomas: It’s hard to tip against Best Of Bordeaux. The Golden Slipper runner-up last season ran a much improved race second-up to beat all but the brilliant In Secret in the Run To The Rose. There was the option of starting Best Of Bordeaux in the Golden Rose but connections have elected to keep the colt to sprints and this looks the perfect race for him. Semillion ran a competitive race in the McEwen Stakes and is capable of making a race of it with the favourite. Hawaii Five-Oh is very promising and underrated filly Opal Ridge is very fit and will be in the mix.
RACE 7: GOLDEN PENDANT (1400m)
Dufficy: I keep coming back to Nimalee. She has been back to the trials since a much better run second-up behind Zaaki, she likes the track and distance and the key to her is the soft tracks. I think Expat is the big improver. She got onto the wrong part of the track at Wyong, loves it wet at Rosehill, and has had a barrier trial since. If there is a knockout horse it is Dynasties. Her trial was unbelievable and I’m desperate to have something on her but would prefer her on a drier track. We all expected much more from Espiona first-up but she is too good to dismiss and we will learn more here.
Thomas: I’ve gone wide here with Dalchini each-way. She’s has been improved by three runs from a spell and was very good in the Mona Lisa Stakes at Wyong, coming from last on the turn with a wide run to finish a close fourth. She handles wet tracks well, gets the right run from barrier four and at $31 is worth a gamble. I concede top mares Nimalee, Jamaea and Espiona have the class edge and rate very highly.
RACE 8: GOLDEN ROSE (1400m)
Dufficy: The Cummings family hold the key and I think father Anthony’s filly, She’s Extreme, is over the odds compared with his son’s filly, In Secret. She’s Extreme puts herself into a beautiful spot here, she is stronger than most, loves it wet and will give them a real fright. In Secret is the danger. She maps perfectly and is a terrific chance. Golden Mile checked off the 1400m box in style last start. The best longshot is Promitto who has been ticking along quite nicely.
Thomas: In Secret was outstanding beating the “boys” in the Run To The Rose. She did get all the favours but was able to put her rivals away with a powerful finishing surge that suggests she will be even better suited at 1400m. In Secret is drawn to get the run of the race again and she is the one to beat. Fireburn, the Golden Slipper winner, has been improved by a solid first-up run when fifth to In Secret. She needs to make up four lengths on the winner but if the track conditions get close to the heavy range, then her chances soar. Golden Mile was terrific last start and he just needs luck in running to be in the finish. The form from Jacquinot’s impressive first-up win has been franked and will be strong late.
RACE 9: SHANNON STAKES (1500m)
Dufficy: I’ve got a slight leaning to Ellsberg, Ray. We all saw he had no luck at all first-up when he had no room. He loves the course and distance and that inside draw puts him straight behind the leader if not in front. It’s a nice set-up here for War Eternal. He is third-up on a quick back-up with no weight. Old Flame is heading in the right direction but a query if we get to a heavy track. Mount Popa is another Team Hawkes longshot first-up but his best form is on wet tracks and to think he ran third in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes last start suggests he is not out of this race.
Thomas: Old Flame resumed with a strong win over 1400m on this track. This promising import can only be improved and he is up to this grade. Rustic Steel had no luck first-up and is a big improver. War Eternal flew home late to just miss last week and he can’t be overlooked. Ellsberg has never won second-up but this race does set up nicely for him.
RACE 10: IRRESISTIBLE POOLS AND SPA HCP (1100m)
Dufficy: This is another tough race. If they are happy to run Starman on a wet track, I want to be with him. They have been scratching and waiting but this does look a lovely race for him. He does look right in it from the draw. Tristate has done well in both runs back after a long spell. I would have had him top pick from a better barrier. Kipsbay stood out in the yard and landed some good bets last start. He could be up to the class rise. Fire had no luck last start and he just has to find cover and he will be finishing off well.
Thomas: Fire was a slow away and lost his position which proved costly when just beaten at Rosehill. He’s awkwardly drawn here but if gets even luck in running, he will go close. Nasturtium tried hard with a big weight first-up and will be improved. Fox Fighter caught the eye last start and is over the odds. Kipsbay is very fit and in top form.
SATURDAY EXTRA
SHAYNE O’CASS’ TOP PICKS
NEWCASTLE
BEST BET
Race 5, No.7: PERFECT THOUGHT
On his way to the Gloaming and Spring Champion after this one. Beat a good field to win his maiden at Kembla last start.
NEXT BEST
Race 6, No.9: FEARLESS KNIGHT
Caught the eye big time first-up in a deep maiden at Kembla. Getting close to a win and has circumstances to suit.
VALUE BET
Race 3, No.3: GRANGE ROCK STAR
Well-bred gelding - his dam won the Light Fingers - and there’s been merit in both starts. Trialled well leading into this.
QUADDIE
Race 5: 6,9,14
Race 6: 2,9,15
Race 7: 5,12,13
Race 8: 11,12
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
Keagan Latham could take some beating in Saturday’s TAB Jockeys Challenge provided all of his mounts show up on the day.
MOREE
BEST BET
Race 1, No.1: MR DUPRIDGE
His father, Duporth, won the Golden Rose on this corresponding weekend in 2008. Debut was good enough to warrant top pick in this line-up.
NEXT BEST
Race 3, No.13: SISTINE ANGEL
Been somewhat costly but still consistent at the same time. No excuses this time against this lot.
VALUE BET
Race 2, No.6: ADVISER
Took 17 starts to break his maiden but was utterly decisive when it happened last start at home at Armidale. Confident horse now.
Originally published as Rosehill tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
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