Rosehill tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy best bets and analysis for Rosehill and Group 1 races from Flemington
Racing editor Ray Thomas and form expert Ron Dufficy give their top tips in every race at Rosehill and the three Group 1s at Flemington.
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The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances at Rosehill Gardens and Flemington on another bumper Saturday.
SUGGESTED BETS
DUFF’S BEST
Race 4, No.7: NAVAL SEAL
NEXT BEST
Race 3, No.3: KING FRANKEL
Race 7, No.12: SHEEZA BELTER
RAY’S BEST
Race 4, No.7: NAVAL SEAL
NEXT BEST
Race 5, No.2: FOX FIGHTER
VALUE BET
Race 9, No.3: WINNING VERSE
ROSEHILL GARDENS
RACE 1: MIDWAY HCP (1300m)
Ron Dufficy: I like Astero. I think he did more than enough first-up and has improvement to come. He should run well with the claim. The danger is Either Oar. He makes his own luck on top of the speed and continues to run nice races. Black Duke got a few gear changes and He should be forgiven after being ridden back in a slowly run race last week. He has a chance. Cool Lad can improve sharply.
Ray Thomas: Either Oar is a genuine mare coming off successive Midway placings at Randwick. She gets her chance on top of the ground here and is ready to win. Verbek ran second in a Midway over this course and distance two starts back and is drawn to get the soft run. Damaged is in good form and will be charging home. Eye See Things gets in with a lightweight and is a good each way chance.
RACE 2: TAB HIGHWAY (1400m)
Dufficy: Sir Ravanelli is a good, tough Highway performer. He was terrific last week getting too far back from a wide draw. He maps well here. If To The Nines has any luck from the outside draw, he can run well. The time he struck a good track he ran very well in a Country Championships heat. Nothing went right for Brazen Impact last week and he is ready for this trip. Lockdown Gamble can race closer from the good draw and could surprise.
Thomas: I’m also with Sir Ravanelli. He hit the line well last week when third in Pokerjack’s Highway but as you pointed out, Ronnie, the good draw here gives him the chance to settle closer to the leaders. He looks hard to beat. Royal Charge scored well at Muswellbrook last start and is over the odds. King’s Trust is also backing up after a good run last week and he will appreciate the drier tracks. Brazen Impact can improve but has to overcome a wide draw.
RACE 3: CHANDON HCP (2400m)
Dufficy: I’m pretty keen on King Frankel, I like this horse. Although he is way up in class, he’s got style and is ready to eat up this distance. Pale King found his form back on the dry track last week and he won at this distance. He should be in the finish again. I’m expecting improvement from Suppression who has done nothing at three runs back the last time he was at the Rosehill 2400m he won. Sounds Of Cannons showed some signs of finding form last start.
Thomas: King Frankel looks a very promising stayer. He was strong through the line at Warwick Farm and the step up to 2400m will suit. Pale King is back in form after a very tough win last week. He looks hard to beat again. Essential Sky is an emerging mare coming off successive 2400m wins at the midweeks. Our Candidate shouldered a big weight in testing conditions to win the Cessnock Cup and is out to his best trip here.
RACE 4: QUAYCLEAN HCP (1800m)
Dufficy: I think Naval Seal is the bet of the day. He beat Willinga Rufio at the end of last preparation, it was a nice run first-up and he will be hard to beat. Willinga Rufio is the danger. He is still learning what it is all about but he is also a progressive type and will give a big sight. The big improver is Colour Sergeant who is fitter for two runs back, gets a dry track and is a knockout chance for sure. Just A Jedi has been racing without luck but is very consistent and should be thereabouts again.
Thomas: Naval Seal ran a blinder first-up to beat all but the in-form, race-fit Mahagoni at Randwick. Naval Seal will be fitter and won well over this course and distance back in June before his spell. The one to beat. Willinga Rufio ran fourth in the Mahagoni race last start and looms as the main danger to Naval Seal. Of the others, Sindacato is working his way back into form and Greek Hero will be competitive.
RACE 5: FURPHY HCP (1200m)
Dufficy: This is a lottery, anything goes. Fox Fighter is going great and although up in weight, will be competitive again. Soami has looked good at the trials and although he hasn’t won for a long time he is trained up to run well. Kobe Rocks is off a long break here but his two trials wins have been impressive. I don’t mind He’s A Hotshot, he maps nicely and should sprint well fresh.
Thomas: Fox Fighter finished powerfully to win over 1100m here then ran on well for third in stronger grade at Randwick. Racing in very good form and although he’s up sharply at the weights, he is down in grade. Devil’s Throat is a handy type who won fourth-up last preparation and will be competitive. Bend The Knee is capable of sprinting well fresh. Kobe Rocks is trialling well and can measure up here.
RACE 6: GOLDEN GIFT (1100m)
Dufficy: I’m gambling on one at odds in Razors. He went into the Kirkham Plate on debut off one trial earlier that week. I think he is the biggest improver out of that race, the winkers go on and we are going to get a good price about him. Disneck looked good in his only trial rounding them up late and in good time. I think the inside draw is a big advantage. Summer Loving only won a three-horse trial but she did it impressively, moving well and looking to have plenty to offer. Barber needs everything to go right from the outside draw.
Thomas: There’s a big boom on Summer Loving after she dominated in a barrier trial, albeit against just two rivals. She looks a natural and can make a winning debut. Mexico did well to finish second on a heavy track and Moonee Valley and will be so much better suited on top of the ground. Coincide and Barber fought out the finish of the Kirkham Plate with the latter prevailing narrowly and both should be in the finish again with any luck from wide barriers.
RACE 7: HOT DANISH STAKES (1400m)
Dufficy: Sheeza Belter looks beautifully placed with 53kg here. She gets her preferred dry track and is hard to beat. There is a very good longshot here in Cliff’s Art. She backs up quickly from last week where she was very good and her record is tremendous on dry tracks. Electric Girl deserves a change of luck and the good draw and dry track are positives. Lavish Girl stuck on well in the Silver Eagle and back to her own sex she can run well.
Thomas: Electric Girl hasn’t had much luck this spring but finally gets a good track and favourable draw. She’s likely to get the right run just off the speed and will be hard to hold out. Sheeza Belter ran into dead ends in the straight and should have finished much closer when resuming in The Invitation. She is a talented filly and will be hard to beat. Night Of Romance is an interesting runner. She is Group placed in Ireland and is one to watch at her Australian debut. I also have Lavish Girl in my numbers off her solid Silver Eagle run.
RACE 8: FIVE DIAMONDS (1800m)
Dufficy: I’m struggling to split the top picks. I’m left with Laws Of Indices. I know he hasn’t won in a while but he has been competitive at the top level all the way through and the Cox Plate form stands out. Ellsberg is in rare form, maps well and just has to run the distance out on the dry track. Ayrton is peaking on the right day; he was good behind I Wish I Win first-up and only has to run 1800m out to run well. Sibaaq backs up from Tuesday and still has more to offer.
Thomas: I’ve gone with Ellsberg. He is absolutely flying this spring and although he is unproven at 1800m, he’s going to get the soft run from his inside gate. Ayrton is the danger. He had excuses behind Ellsberg in the Prelude but goes to this race peaking third-up. Laws Of Indices wasn’t beaten far in the Cox Plate and looks hard to beat here. Diamil was strong on the line to win over the Randwick mile and the step up to 1800m suits.
RACE 9: NEW TAB APP HCP (1100m)
Dufficy: Lots of chances here. Coco Rox is a sharp mare; she was a beaten favourite first-up but the heavy track was against her there. From this draw she is certain to run well. Winning Verse backs up quickly from last week when she probably went out too hard. I Am Me is a talented mare suited on the dry track first-up. Devil’s Triangle will be the one out the back with all this speed on up front and watch for her rushing home.
Thomas: Winning Verse stuck on well last week when fourth to the promising Mars Mission in fast time. She is back to fillies and mares here and is ready to win. I Am Me is a smart mare with good first-up form. Devils Triangle ran on strongly to just miss a place at Warwick Farm when resuming and she has won second-up previously. Coco Rox is fitter and drawn to get the right run.
RACE 10: RANVET HCP (1400m)
Dufficy: I like Bella Rouge. She needed the run first-up, back to a benchmark 78 here and with any luck she should be in the finish. Arnaqueur only had one run last preparation where he won well. He might be back to his best and his trial was good leading into this race. I Am Lethal didn’t have much room to move last week and the blinkers go back on. Starman has the ability and he hasn’t had much luck in two runs back from a spell.
Thomas: Spangler is a lightly-raced former English miler who won at Newcastle impressively at his second Australian start back in August. He’s had two trials to prepare for his return, gets in well at the weights after the claim, and is a good each way chance in an open race. Short Shorts makes her own luck on speed and will take catching. Bella Rouge and I Am Lethal are both right in this race.
FLEMINGTON
RACE 6: CHAMPIONS STAKES (1200m)
Dufficy: It’s hard to go past the champ, Nature Strip, down the straight. He went out hard and was trapped wide in The Everest so have to be forgiving for that defeat and all the indications are everything is in order for this race. Giga Kick gets his chance to beat him again. He’s proven down the straight and with his lightweight he will get his chance to beat Nature Strip again. Roch ‘N’ Horse has really good straight track form at Flemington. The other three-year-old, Lofty Strike, ran well in the Coolmore Stud Stakes and I can see him running top four here.
Thomas: Nature Strip was forced to endure a wide run in The Everest and was beaten less than a length on the line. He’s the world’s number one-ranked sprinter, his straight track record is outstanding, and he can bounce back. Giga Kick is unbeaten and his win in The Everest was extraordinary. He will be finishing fast again. Bella Nipotina was brilliant winning the Manikato Stakes and Paulele can improve on drier track.
RACE 7: CHAMPIONS MILE (1600m)
Dufficy: The more I look at this the more I think Alligator Blood is absolutely flying. Back to a mile on a dry track and with possible control he will be very hard to beat. In saying that, how can you deny Private Eye with the form he is in this spring. He’s going from 1300m to 1600m and has had a good grounding so no problems there. Mr Brightside has coming out of the Cox Plate back to the mile which is more his go. I’m throwing in this mystery horse My Oberon. He was very good at his Australian debut.
Thomas: Private Eye’s finishing speed to win the Nature Strip Stakes was incredible. He’s gone to a new level this spring and can win again. My Oberon was very impressive winning the Crystal Mile at his Australian debut and he can only improve again. Alligator Blood will be tough to run down and watch for the fast-finishing Cascadian who is in winning touch.
RACE 8: CHAMPIONS STAKES (2000m)
Dufficy: I’m an unabashed Anamoe fan. They wouldn’t be running him unless they were pleased with him, he has a lovely draw and will find the box seat. He should be hard to beat in his first run at Flemington. I’m Thunderstuck is a ripper horse and he will eat up the Flemington 2000m and will be hard to hold out. Elliptical is a very talented horse and that Spring Champion Stakes form looks very good. Hinged is a very good mare who has been crying out for 2000m.
Thomas: Anamoe just gets the right run again. He’s a winner and can make it five consecutive Group 1 wins this spring. Zaaki likes Flemington and if he gets left alone in front he will take catching. I Thunderstruck finished powerfully in the Cox Plate for a very good second. The race set-up doesn’t suit him but he will be in the finish again. Elliptical is an emerging talent but he is taking on a hot field.
SATURDAY EXTRA
Shayne O’Cass’s top picks
WYONG
BEST BET
Race 1, No.1: KOVALICA
Close relation to Group 1 winners King Mufhasa and The Bostonian trained by Chris Waller and ready to win off a sterling debut effort Newcastle.
NEXT BEST
Race 2, No.1: PENFOLD PARK
Big, strong son of Denman making his debut at home from a good draw and did enough in the trials to indicate talent.
VALUE BET
Race 8, No.11: FLYING TYROL
Very well-bred mare from the John Thompson stable. A relative of Stratum and has looked razor sharp on the trials.
QUADDIE
Race 5: 3,5,10
Race 6: 3,8
Race 7: 1,8
Race 8: 1,6,11,16
JOCKEY YO FOLLOW
Jockey Blake Spriggs and trainer John Thompson could bag themselves a hat-trick on Saturday’s Wyong card.
GOULBURN
BEST BET
Race 4, No.1: BLAZING SUNRISE
Gary Kirkup-trained gelding who hasn’t won under a mile but is fresh, has trialled well and strikes a winnable race. Go well.
NEXT BET
Race 5, No.11: FLYING FLOSSY
Locally-trained filly who has finished fourth at her only two starts to date in what look to be stronger maidens than this one.
VALUE BET
Race 6, No.14: WYOBI
Stablemate of Five Diamonds favourite Ellsberg having her first race start here off some encouraging trials.
Originally published as Rosehill tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy best bets and analysis for Rosehill and Group 1 races from Flemington
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