Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis for The Gong meeting at Kembla Grange
Racing editor Ray Thomas and form expert Ron Dufficy give their top tips in every race at Kembla Grange.
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The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy discuss the chances at the $1m The Gong meeting at Kembla Grange on Saturday.
SUGGESTED BETS
DUFF’S BEST
Race 3, No.12: NAVAL SEAL
VALUE BET
Race 7, No.3: ATHELRIC
Race 10, No.7: TONNEOFGRIT
RAY’S BEST
Race 5, No.11: VIANELLO
NEXT BEST
Race 6, No.6, No.6: MARS MISSION
VALUE BET
Race 10, No.3: MA AND PA
KEMBLA
RACE 1: TAB HIGHWAY (1400m)
Ron Dufficy: A competitive race. There weren’t many who missed the run of Super Extreme last start. His racing style doesn’t help him but he has a good winning chance with any luck coming from back in the field. Lockdown Gamble was great going from 1000m to 1400m within a week second-up and is right in this race, mapping well. Tap ‘N’ Run was much better second-up and 1400m from a better draw and the claim appeals. Brazen Impact’s last two Highway runs are good enough and the dry track, inside draw are a huge advantage.
Ray Thomas: Lady Kah is protecting her unbeaten record, winning her maiden on debut then jumping straight to a class 3 and winning comfortably again. Promising filly with a powerful finishing surge. Super Extreme will be hard to beat. He is bursting to win a race and gets his chance here. Atmospheric Rock is another lightly-raced but promising young horse and gives the impression he will enjoy getting out to 1400m. Limited Reality ran well at Randwick and is ready to improve.
RACE 2: COUNT DE RUPEE MIDWAY (1400m)
Dufficy: I like Danish Prince. It was a huge effort second-up when back in distance, raced wide with no cover. He only has to reproduce that effort to go close. Astero should be at his peak now, gets to 1400m and is ready to win. Excelladus would have been top pick from a better draw. He’s a nice horse who went from 1200m to 1500m last start and did it tough. With any luck in running, he’s a great chance. The big query in the race is Three Wise Men. He was an Eagle Farm winner at the end of his last preparation, he goes well fresh and he has the ability.
Thomas: Astero should be peaking now after two solid runs since resuming. He gets to 1400m, dry track and with Dylan Gibbons’ 2kg claim, he looks well placed. Verbek wasn’t beaten far at Rosehill and gets the right run from his good draw. Danish Prince looks very hard to beat for all the reasons you mentioned, Ronnie. Excelladus is a promising type but his wide draw is a big leveller.
RACE 3: BENCHMARK 78 HCP (2000m)
Dufficy: I’m with Naval Seal. I know there may have looked to be better runs last start but he got into a horrible spot, nothing went right for him. He is third-up at 2000m and is ready now. Colour Sergeant is fourth-up, right distance and should be around the mark. Just A Jedi is flying without winning, he does get back and needs a few things to go his way but he must be included. Smirk had good form in the fillies’ classics last winter and should be respected.
Thomas: I want to give Naval Seal another chance. He rode a solid tempo at Rosehill and was under pressure a long way out. He is fitter now after two runs from a spell and if ridden more conservatively, he will be hitting the line hard. Colour Sergeant has run three solid races since resuming, he’s at his peak and did finish well in front of Naval Seal last start. Smirk is an emerging mare and ready to strike top form. Just A Jedi hasn’t been far away in every run this campaign and should be in the finish again.
RACE 4: ELEVEN ELEVEN HCP (1000m)
Dufficy: I kept coming back to Way To The Stars from the perfect draw. She got the job done well, landing good bets first-up, she has trialled beautifully since and looks hard to run down. Quick Tempo was desperately unlucky first-up at this level and gets his chance to atone. Stoical’s trial win was sharp, four of his five career wins have been fresh and I’m expecting him to be ready. Classy Jaybee has ability, putting together two good runs since arriving back from Hong Kong.
Thomas: In a race loaded with chances, I’m going a little wide with Burning Crown. I’m convinced he is racing better than his form reads including his luckless effort behind Key Largo at Randwick when he never got clear galloping room. At $26, he’s worth a gamble. Way To The Stars was impressive first-up and can only improve. Stoical trialled nicely on Monday and his first-up form is outstanding. Spellcatcher was spelled after a very good run behind Overpass at Flemington earlier this year and is one to watch.
RACE 5: BENCHMARK 78 HCP (1200m)
Dufficy: I’m tipping Vianello in a hard race. He did a good enough job running second first-up and this suits better. With the ideal draw and claim, he should go close. Divine Breath could be the danger. She ran well first-up and don’t sell her short on her home track. Queen Bellissimo found it too short first-up and has the ability to bounce back. Pretty Wild is a talented up-and-coming mare with two heavy track wins last preparation. She has had only one soft trial going into this so watch market moves.
Thomas: Vianello finished hard to just miss behind Way To The Stars at Warwick Farm first-up and that form reads well for this race. She is drawn to get all the favours and will be hard to hold out. Pretty Wild is a big watch. She’s a promising mare resuming but rates highly. Queen Bellissimo had excuses first-up and can improve but she is weighted up to her best. Either Oar has never been in better form, she is very fit and gets home track advantage.
RACE 6: BENCHMARK 78 HCP (1200m)
Dufficy: Able Willie has had one soft trial to prepare for this, he’s a talented horse with form around the right horses including Mazu, and this style of race should be well within his range. Kanazawa has nice fresh form and gets the Zac Lloyd claim. Rainbow Connection returned well to win at Eagle Farm, he just didn’t come up last preparation and he’s set for a good campaign. Vreneli has had two trial wins, makes his own luck from barrier one and this is his pet distance.
Thomas: Mars Mission produced some brilliant closing sectionals to win at Rosehill last start. He’s a promising sprinter building an impressive record but the barrier draw has done him no favours. With any luck in running, he is good enough to win again. Able Willie is another promising sprinter and from his ideal draw, he is going to get the right run. He’s the one to beat. Kanazawa rates highly and I’ve also got Rainbow Connection in my numbers.
RACE 7: THE WARRA (1000m)
Dufficy: I see good value in Athelric, Ray. He gets in very light after the claim, I like the draw, he can settle just off the speed and looks hard to beat. Malkovich is a sharp sprinter back to his right trip, and from the good draw is sure to give a great sight. On The Lead was OK with a big weight first-up, he loves this track and distance, and looks the value runner. Dragonstone won at this meeting last year, he has had excuses at his two runs back from a spell and is set to run well.
Thomas: Malkovich indicated a return to winning form is imminent when he beat all but the promising Clemenceau at Randwick last start. He’s a 1000m specialist and will be tough to run down. Dragonstone should be peaking now and will be closing fast. Key Largo has always shown above average ability and comes off a dominant win at Randwick. He’s a terrific lightweight chance. Bruckner was Group 1 placed behind Home Affairs 12 months ago and finally gets back to the races but has to overcome a wide draw.
RACE 8: THE GONG (1600m)
Dufficy: I’ve been tied at the hip with Brutality, waiting patiently for him to get to this race. He is ready to go, blinkers on and just needs the right run being a backmarker to be right in the finish. There are loads of chances and I feel the massive improver is Riodini. He is going better than his two runs suggest on paper and he has a winning chance with a lightweight. How can you fault the Golden Eagle form of Hope In Your Heart, she is absolutely airborne at the moment. Old Flame has been set for this race and is ready for a peak performance but the draw means plenty has to go right for him.
Thomas: This is a deep race. I’ve landed on Purple Sector at double figure odds. He is racing well this spring and finally gets back to a firm track; he comes out of the inside barrier and should get the run of the race. Old Flame would have been top pick after his outstanding win at Flemington last start but his outside draw is the concern. If he gets cover and a reasonable run, he’s the one to beat. Hope In Your heart also has to overcome a wide gate but she is in great form. Promise Of Success is a talented mare and will be charging home.
RACE 9: BENCHMARK 88 HCP (1600m)
Dufficy: This is tricky. I’ve ended up going with Steely who loves the track, he has won three races here and has to be among the best chances. Nugget is one of the big queries of the day. He’s a well-performed import who was great first-up at Flemington and a mile should suit him better. The market suggests he is very well fancied. Honeycreeper was in the wrong part of the track last start and although there is a little thought she is better suited on softer tracks, I can’t leave her out. Blaze A Trail is an improver at odds as his dry track form is very good.
Thomas: Nugget does look hard to beat. He bumped into a smart horse when making his Australian debut at Flemington and should be improved. Former English galloper with obvious ability. Steely is ready to win after three runs back and this looks a suitable race. Honeycreeper hasn’t had much luck this spring but she is racing well. Momack was very good at Hawkesbury and if he gets control up front, he will take some running down.
RACE 10: BENCHMARK 78 HCP (1400m)
Dufficy: I like one at odds in Tonneofgrit. He is third-up, blinkers on and I really liked his last start effort in a race not run to suit. He has won his last two preparations third-up from a spell so he is the go-to horse in this race. Irish Legend is the horse I’m scared of. He’s an import in his second preparation in Australia and his three trials should have him ready to go. Any market moves will be significant. Tamerlane is off a month’s freshen after winning on the dry last start. He gets the claim and maps well. Arnaqueur loves this track and did enough first-up to suggest he will be competitive.
Thomas: Ma And Pa showed a glimpse of his old form when resuming with a close fourth to the unbeaten Norwegian Bliss at Randwick. He’s been kept fresh since, gets a dry track which he prefers and is capable of running a competitive race at generous odds. Irish Legend is trialling very well and expect him to be finishing strongly. Tonneofgrit is improving with racing this campaign and the conditions suit the in-form Tamerlane.
SATURDAY EXTRA
Shayne O’Cass’s top picks
GOSFORD
BEST BET
Race 5, No.5: INVICTUS LAD
A son of I Am Invincible, this $300,000 Magic Millions Yearling from the Snowden stable has been trialling like he will score a debut win. He may even be at the Gold Coast in January.
NEXT BEST
Race 4, No.2: CAPTAIN BOND
Was backed off the map into odds-on when he came from well back to thrash them here first-up over 1100m. Harder again here but has the talent.
VALUE BET
Race 3, No.4: RICHON
Had support on debut at Newcastle but bumped into Skyline winner Promitto. Spelled after the Todman and has trialled well.
QUADDIE
Race 5: 5
Race 6: 1,2
Race 7: 3,6,14
Race 8: 5,6,9
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
Rory Hutchings has some superb rides at Gosford, none of them better than the exciting debutant Invictus Lad.
INVERELL
BEST BET
Race 2, No.6: MAURAYA
Only has two thirds to show in her 15 starts but probably turned in a personal best last start at his first run for a new stable. Go well.
NEXT BEST
Race 5, No.3: TANDEM
Hugely impressive winner at Mudgee then was on-speed in a very fast run race at Scone and tired which was understandable.
VALUE BET
Race 3, No.1: HONOUR ME
Raced 37 times so far for four wins and 10 placings which is a very commendable strike-rate for any horse. Gets his chance to win another one here.
Originally published as Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis for The Gong meeting at Kembla Grange
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