Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy analyse all 10 races at Randwick for Five Diamonds Prelude Day, plus Caulfield Cup
Ron Dufficy is tipping a horse at tasty odds in the Five Diamonds Prelude on a value-packed day at Royal Randwick. Plus, get Ray and Duff’s Caulfield Cup tips.
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The Saturday Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert debate all big chances at Royal Randwick on Saturday, as well as delve into the Caulfield Cup.
DUFF’S BEST
R2 no2 AMARANTZ
VALUE BET
R8 no7 DETONATOR JACK
RANDWICK R1: KIRKHAM PLATE (1000m)
Ron Dufficy: I was up in the air with this race but on suspicion I’m tipping Blue Illusion. There were big wraps on him going into the Maribyrnong Trial where he did absolutely nothing but showed a poor race recovery. If Godolphin is happy to run him again I’m prepared to give this colt the benefit of the doubt. The Three Hundred has had two trials looking good and running solid time in both so he’s had a lovely grounding for this race. Agenda Setter likewise has shown above average ability in his two trials. Shangri La Express showed good fight in his only trial.
Ray Thomas: I’ve got similar numbers here with Blue Illusion on top. He was a huge tip prior to his Flemington debut where he was never really in the contest. But trainer James Cummings has sent Blue Illusion back to Sydney and the fact he’s prepared to press on with the colt speaks volumes. The Three Hundred is the danger. He has looked a natural in his two trial wins. Agenda Setter has also shown ability at the trials and Miss Judas is one to watch at odds.
RANDWICK R2: TAB HIGHWAY (1800m)
Dufficy: I’m very confident with Amarantz. It was hard to miss her last start run when the bias was completely against her. If she reproduces that run she will win. Snap Book is a good longshot. I loved his run in a Highway three starts and he has run well in both runs since. Whodat is another Matt Dunn runner who commands respect with solid Brisbane form. Lord Desanimaux is getting up near his best distance now and will run an improved race. I Am Good At This is a lightly-raced, well-bred improver in good form.
Thomas: I Am Good At This comes to Randwick very fit and in good form after a tough win over 1720m at Grafton. He does drop 3.5kg and despite the wide draw, he will run a very good race. At the odds, I favour I Am Good At This over the favourite Amarantz. She is getting to 1800m quickly at her second run back from a spell but she is coming off a terrific first-up effort. She came from near last on the turn and charged home to be beaten less than a length into second placing over 1500m. She is a winner over this track and distance and is the one to beat. Whodat is going to get every chance from his good draw and Devocean is in top form.
RANDWICK R3: MIDWAY HANDICAP (1400m)
Dufficy: Another tough race. I want to have something on Oakfield Waratah to improve. I thought it was a total forgive run going way back from a wide draw first-up and then coming to the outside which was a no-go zone that day. Peace Officer looked very soft winning at his first two runs back then was held up at vital stages last start. He has to be right in the picture again. Satness has been up a long time but is going as well as ever and he has a good racing style. Bunker Hunt got caught wide the other day and the 1400m will suit him better.
Thomas: Peace Officer drew wide, got a long way back and didn’t have the best of luck in running but still ran on well to just miss a place behind Felix Majestic at Rosehill over 1400m two weeks ago. He had won his previous two starts and sets up well here. Epicus ran a blinder when resuming at the midweeks to finish a close fifth and is better suited this grade. Oakfield Waratah will be fitter and Bunker Hut would have been nearly top pick if he had drawn a better barrier.
RANDWICK R4: ACY CONNECT HANDICAP (2000m)
Dufficy: Marquess looks a lovely staying prospect. He has had a tick-over trial since his impressive win over 1900m last start and he’s hard to beat again. Mission Phoenix was beaten by a bob of the heads there last start but the claim helps this week. He is 4kg better off against Pierossa this time. Promises Kept ran a terrific race when unfancied first-up and 2000m will suit. Pierossa still has more to offer but is not as well off at the weights this time.
Thomas: Marquess is the one to beat. He is in outstanding form and could not have been more dominant beating Pierossa easily over 1900m at Rosehill last start. Marquess has had a month between runs but he’s very fit and finally gets out to 2000m which should be ideal. Pierossa followed her second placing behind Marquess with a tough win at Rosehill two weeks ago, and she does meet her main rival better at the weights. Mission Phoenix has plenty of weight but he will be in front for a long way. Queenmaker will run her usual competitive race.
RANDWICK R5: PRECISE AIR HANDICAP (1200m)
Dufficy: Commemorative is a very short-priced favourite and I see good value in Kazou. Her trial was very, very sharp, she will jump straight on the speed and I hope she is ready after just the one trial. I’m going with Kazou at the odds to beat this boom filly Commemorative. She captured everyone’s attention winning a midweek maiden on debut back in June. She will be tested by the wide draw but we will learn more about her here. Overriding has been well handled going through her classes and has trialled up nicely. Junqueira will be running on strongly.
Thomas: Commemorative created a huge impression on debut and she resumes here of two easy soft trials. This gifted Godolphin filly is resuming against older, more experienced rivals but she is destined for bigger races this spring so she should be too good for this field. Kazou is a lightly-raced but promising mare with a good first-up record. She is the danger to the favourite. Overriding and Junqueira both have plenty of ability and can make a race of it with Commemorative.
RANDWICK R6: SPORTING CANCER FOUNDATION HANDICAP (1100m)
Dufficy: Dashing Legend has a big weight but she is a classy mare and first run for a new stable. Judging by her recent trial it looks like she is ready to go. Smashing Eagle is fresh but is a heart-in-your-mouth horse as he gives away huge starts but he has a sizzling finish. Contemporary trialled up nicely and is set to run well fresh. Jedibeel needs luck from a tricky draw but never runs a bad race.
Thomas: Smashing Eagle is racing in great form but his habit of being slow away and settling well back in the field is proving costly. He has a powerful finishing sprint and if he is within striking distance of the leaders from the turn, with clear galloping room he will be hard to beat. The consistent Jedibeel is underrated and will be in the finish again despite his wide draw. Big watch on market moves for Dashing Legend, a talented mare who is trialling brilliantly for the new stable. The Team Hawkes duo of Stromboli and Mars Mission are definite chances.
RANDWICK R7: FILANTE HANDICAP (1600m)
Dufficy: I quite like one at odds, Wild Planet. He hasn’t won in a long while but this is a race where he gets complete control and he will give a good kick from in front at double figure odds. Unspoken looks a nice enough horse on the rise and is ready for a race like this. Wicklow is being set for the Big Dance but he will be running on hard from the back. Political Debate is suited by a drop in class and is very fit now.
Thomas: Unspoken is chasing a hat-trick of wins after excellent efforts at Rosehill over 1500m and the Randwick mile course since resuming. Team Snowden has found the key to this import and although Unspoken is short enough in betting, he is the one to beat. Wild Planet deserves a chance of luck and Knight’s Choice can improve. Looks Like Elvis wasn’t beaten far in the Cameron Handicap and has trialled well since.
RANDWICK R8: FIVE DIAMONDS PRELUDE (1500m)
Dufficy: Detonator Jack is a nice horse racing without a lot of luck and he is good odds here. It was just a touch too short for him in the Alan Brown Stakes last start in a slowly run race but with more pressure here over 1500m he will be hard to hold out. Cotehele was a good thing beaten in the Alan Brown but gets a chance to atone here with a good looking map for him. Palmetto has been close enough in three runs back and should get the run of the race. This race shape looks much better for Waterford than his last few runs and he’s a definite chance in an open race.
Thomas: Democracy Manifest gets back in his races and needs luck in running but he still looms as the horse to beat. He was brilliant winning the Cameron Handicap then ran out of room in the Epsom Handicap when he went to the line untested to finish a close fifth. It’s very good form for this race. Altivo has raced without luck in two runs this spring, he is very promising and should go close. Waterford and Palmetto have been improved by recent racing and either is good enough to win.
RANDWICK R9: BIG DANCE WILD CARD (1600m)
Dufficy: I want to be with Loch Eagle. I just think he is ready to go after two runs from a spell, he gets the blinkers back on, he is very well weighted in comparison to a horse like Spangler and we are getting a very good price. Flying Crazy might have found the right lane but he was still strong in the best lead-up race. Even though he is up 6kg Flying Crazy is well-placed. I’m not knocking Spangler, his two runs back have been great on dry tracks. He might be a better horse in softer conditions but he is going so well and impressed in a recent trial. Aramayo is a really good bolter. He’s an old boy who has had a nice tick-over trial since doing more than enough when resuming and has a place chance.
Thomas: Flying Crazy comes out of two very strong races with his fourth placing in the Shannon Stakes and a close third in the Alan Brown Stakes, both won by Cepheus. Flying Crazy has to shoulder 60kg but has drawn a soft gate and should be able to settle closer to the lead in the run. This is his chance. Spangler has been improved by recent racing and he does have a very good finishing sprint. For Valour and Journalism both make their own luck on speed and will give their backers a sight.
RANDWICK R10: TAB HANDICAP (1200m)
Dufficy: I’m with Pizarro. Awkward draws have been against him in two runs from a spell but he is peaking for the right race at the right time and he should be finishing hard off a solid speed up front. Dynamic Impact showed good improvement at big odds second-up but there was no fluke about that run. He has a big finish on him and has to be included. Extremely Lucky has been a work in progress giving away big starts in his races but he gets the chance to settle closer and will go much better. Sebonack is a hot and cold performer but he is capable on his day and should be in the numbers.
Thomas: Dynamic Impact has been improved by two runs from a spell and caught the eye with his closing third behind Airman at Randwick. He doesn’t have a great record on this track but this race sets up well for him. Tristate and Sanstoc are racing well but both have drawn wide. Pizarro also comes out of the Airman race where he worked to the line nicely to finish fourth and is peaking after two runs from a spell.
CAULFIELD R9: CARLTON DRAUGHT CAULFIELD CUP (2400m)
Dufficy: In a good Caulfield Cup I’m willing to spec the Japanese horse, Breakup. He looks a tough on-pace stayer who has sustained speed. If he runs up to his Tenno Sho effort two starts back he will be hard to get past. Without A Fight put in a great Cup trial in the Underwood and is primed. West Wind Blows maps well and caught the eye in the lead-up while Soulcombe might be better at Flemington but he will relish the pressure of this race at 2400m now.
Thomas: I’m with Soulcombe in a very open Caulfield Cup. He won the Heatherlie impressively, then ran a good fourth at weight-for-age in the Underwood Stakes before his closing third in the Turnbull Stakes. His form reads very well for this race as he drops to 53.5kg and gets out to a more suitable 2400m. Montefilia was outstanding winning the Hill Stakes and can provide trainer Chris Waller with a Caulfield Cup quinella. Gold Trip was monstrous in the Turnbull but has to set a modern day weight-carrying record and Without A Fight did enough in the Underwood to suggest he will be in the finish.
Originally published as Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy analyse all 10 races at Randwick for Five Diamonds Prelude Day, plus Caulfield Cup
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