Ray and Duff analyse all 10 races on Epsom Day at Randwick
Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy discuss the top chances for the Silver Eagle meeting at Randwick to help you find some winners.
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The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the big-race chances for the Silver Eagle meeting at Royal Randwick and Caulfield Guineas Day on Saturday.
SUGGESTED BETS
DUFF’S BEST
Race 2, No.12: KOTE
BEST VALUE
Race 3, No.7: MAIN STAGE
RAY’S BEST
Race 9, No.10: FINEPOINT
NEXT BEST
Race 8, No.2: MR MOZART
VALUE BET
Race 3, No.10: KING FRANKEL
ROYAL RANDWICK
RACE 1: TAB HIGHWAY (1600m)
Ron Dufficy: I’m going to jump into the corner of Jalmari this week. He gets the mile at Randwick where his only run at the track and distance on a heavy 9 he ran second in the Carbine Club Stakes. The wet track, 1600m and weight relief, he’s right in it. Almahero did a good job winning at 1500m first-up, the stable is going really well and he should be hard to beat. His stablemate King Of Spades puts himself into the box seat from the good draw and he is busting to win another race. Zoffany’s Gaze steps up in distance sharply but he has nice credentials for this race.
Ray Thomas: Almahero was strong at the end of 1500m winning-first-up and he drops 2.5kg here. Drawn to get the right run and is a heavy track winner. I’m happy to go with Almahero over Gold Lunar who is a consistent mare and won on a heavy 10 track at Scone last start. Stella Glow is first-up but she races well on wet tracks and Zoffany’s Gaze is another worthy of consideration in an open race.
RACE 2: MIDWAY HANDICAP (1400m)
Dufficy: Kote is the bet of the day. There is no speed in this race, he ambles to the lead and takes complete control of the race. He won at Canterbury on a very heavy track and gets the chance to show us what he has got here. Mayrose was one of many unlucky runners in that race two weeks ago but has no claim there. Black Duke comes out of a different formline but he was unlucky in his own right last start. Verbek’s two Midway runs from a spell have been great, he maps better here and is right in the mix.
Thomas: Either Oar was absolutely bolting behind a wall of runners in the Adios Steve Midway last start and should have been right in the finish. She’s a genuine mare, very fit and racing well. If she handles the heavy conditions, she is very good value at double figure odds. Mayrose is ready to win but has to carry a big weight while I concede Kote does look to get all the favours. Black Duke is ready to improve.
RACE 3: CERRONE HANDICAP (2000m)
Dufficy: I’m going very wide here with another runner favoured by the speed map in Main Stage. He gets complete control up front, loves it wet, gets to 2000m and will give a sight at big odds. Caboche drops in grade, gets the claim and is at peak fitness now. Pink Ivory was very good last start winning at 1800m second-up and has had a nice tick-over trial since. Mamounia wasn’t suited over the short course last time and 2000m second-up suits here. She has some nice three-year-old form to her credit.
Thomas: King Frankel didn’t beat much at Newcastle but he won with consummate ease, circling the field and romping away to score by more than five lengths at his Australian debut. This is the same horse that won a race in England by 32 lengths! He’s one to watch. Bacio Del Mist is always over the odds but she enjoys wet tracks, is very fit and in good form. Navajo Peak and Pink Ivory are both racing in top form and will be hard to beat.
RACE 4: ROMAN CONSUL STAKES (1200m)
Dufficy: I am with Nettuno, the fresh horse on the scene. He has had a month between runs since not having much luck in his two Sydney runs. He has won two from two on the heavy tracks and might be the one here. Best Of Bordeaux has had a little setback since the Run To The Rose but his only heavy track run was a second in the Golden Slipper so he will be hard to beat if right. Willinga Beast has the fillies form which looks strong, she gets blinkers and back to 1200m suits here. Zoukerino is better than what we saw in the San Domenico Stakes and he’s another one that arrives here with blinkers on.
Thomas: Best Of Bordeaux was good in the Run To The Rose, beating all but he classy In Secret. He did have a slight setback after that run but he still shapes as the one to beat at level weights. Sejardan has been improved by two runs from a spell and he will be charging home. Nettuno does look very hard to beat as he does handle wet tracks. Sweet Ride is continually underrated but will be in the finish again.
RACE 5: THE NIVISON (1200m)
Dufficy: Charleise appeals to me at big odds. I’ve loved her two trials for the new stable. There is some concern the distance here might be too short for her but given the circumstances with the heavy track it might suit here. Expat is back in distance but she is very fit, has early speed and wet track ability. Promise Of Success is a good mare with fresh form and any positive market moves will be significant. Never Talk was good first-up and is arguably the best wet-tracker.
Thomas: I like Expat. She’ been unplaced in two runs this spring but gets back onto her preferred heavy surface and is ready to win. Never Talk is another proven wet-track and will be fitter for her very good comeback run. Promise Of Success is a classy mare and will be hard to hold out late. Sky Command disappointed second-up but she seems to race at her best at Randwick and particularly on heavy tracks.
RACE 6: TAPP-CRAIG (1400m)
Dufficy: At level weights it is hard to go past Zou Tiger. He bounced back big time running boldly in the Golden Rose and only has to reproduce that effort to be hard to beat. Stylised is only out of a midweek win but I liked the way he went about his work. He might be a query in the wet but I don’t want to miss him at the big odds. Opal Ridge has the fillies form, she’s fit and is proven on the heavy. She maps well and the 53kg is ideal given the set-up here. Hawaii Five-Oh is a nice, big, strong colt with a future and he could surprise.
Thomas: There’s a doubt on Zou Tiger starting on the very heavy track but if the stable decides to roll the dice, he should win. His effort in the Golden Rose to finish a close third was outstanding and he did run well on a bottomless track at Canterbury last season. Hawaii Five-Oh is a lightly-raced but very promising colt although he is a query in these conditions. Opal Ridge will handle the heavy track, she’s racing very well and gets her chance here. Burgunder won second-up on a heavy track when last in work and gets a similar set-up for this race.
RACE 7: GLOAMING STAKES (1800m)
Dufficy: I’m giving Promitto another chance, I haven’t dropped off him yet. His best form was in the Skyline Stakes on a heavy 10 and he only has to run the distance out to be in the finish here. If Stylised runs here I feel he is very well suited over 1800m. Sharp ‘N’ Smart, the Kiwi, is untried on soft tracks but he showed so much promise in the winter and his comeback win was impressive. Flag Of Honour on the quick back-up will suit him and he will be a more switched on horse this week.
Thomas: Bunker Hut was too good for older rivals in a provincial maiden last start, powering clear late. I know this is a significantly tougher race but he’s an emerging three-year-old, will handle the going and is over the odds. Williamsburg is a deserved favourite after his strong win last week and his proven wet track record but the barrier draw is a concern. I would have had Macha Latte on top but he has always drawn right off the track. Flag Of Honour had his chance last week but he can improve.
RACE 8: SILVER EAGLE (1300m)
Dufficy: This is a tough race. I’ve settled on Brigantine. He looked a brute of a horse winning first-up, overpowering his rivals with improvement to come. He is way up in class but he has a big future. Mr Mozart is the obvious one. He is underrated, he was unlucky first-up, is unbeaten on wet tracks and just needs a back to follow but at this stage of the day it might be an advantage coming from out wide. Espiona gets another chance. Last time she was on a heavy track was in the James Carr Stakes which she won by a big space. Minsk Moment at big odds ran really well behind Remarque, that form has been franked and he might run a cheeky race.
Thomas: Mr Mozart reeled off successive wins in the Phar Lap Stakes, Doncaster Prelude and Hawkesbury Guineas on wet tracks to finish his three-year-old season. His first-up effort when second in the Theo Mark Stakes was outstanding after he had a luckless run. The outside draw is the issue but he does have tactical speed and is very good on heavy tracks. Espiona is fitter now after two runs back from a spell and if anywhere near her best, she could blow this field away. Waterford and Loch Eagle are both very promising and are definite winning chances.
RACE 9: ANGST STAKES (1600m)
Dufficy: I’m leaning Atishu’s way. She will get the right run just in behind them, she’s had the two runs back and is suited by the set weights and penalties of this race. Hope In Your Heart is an underrated mare, she is flying this preparation and can run well. Finepoint did win well first-up. Roots has hit the line well winning her past two starts and she is among the main chances.
Thomas: Finepoint won with authority first-up and is putting together a very consistent race record. She did win on a very heavy Warwick Farm track by a big margin when last in work and I’m keen on her chances at her stakes race debut. Hope In Your Heart has won successive races impressively and will be hard to beat. Atishu is well placed here and handles wet tracks. Roots is chasing a hat-trick after two impressive wins to start her spring campaign.
RACE 10: KIA ORA FARNAN HCP (1000m)
Dufficy: Nasturtium looks very well placed back to 1000m, barrier one. He will be hard to catch. The big watch is Devil’s Triangle. I would suggest she has trialled well, has good wet form and is ready to go. This ex-Hong Hong horse Classy Jaybee was quite good at Newcastle and if he can reproduce won’t be far away. Feel The Knight is fit now after a couple of runs back from a spell and this race could be set up for a swooper.
Thomas: I’ve gone for Devil’s Triangle. She did some good things when last in work including a strong win on a heavy 10 surface at Canterbury. Nasturtium is very fast and has the draw to suit but is untried on heavy tracks. Feel The Knight’s two runs back after a long spell have been very good and Toro Toro has some claims.
CAULFIELD
RACE 7: MIGHT AND POWER STAKES (2000m)
Dufficy: It’s hard to get away from Anamoe, he is a star colt. He looks in better shape than ever and should get a nice sit off an even speed. I’m Thunderstruck deserves another chance as he had to give away too much start the other day. Zaaki is a proven topliner and he will be there. Alligator Blood is a good chance but would prefer him on top of the ground where he can use his speed.
Thomas: Anamoe is going to get into a stalking position here and will be strong late. He’s been outstanding winning the Winx Stakes and George Main Stakes to start his spring campaign. Zaaki is fitter now, will race on speed and prove tough to run down. I’m Thunderstruck is all class and will be finishing strongly while Alligator Blood beat most of these fair and square in the Underwood Stakes last start.
RACE 8: CAULFIELD GUINEAS (1600m)
Dufficy: This is an impossible race but I was taken by Ellipitical’s last start run when not much went right when getting back in a slowly run race. I liked the way he charged to the line and hopefully he can settle closer from barrier one. Golden Mile is the danger but I do have a slight concern at the 1600m and his price but he is a quality colt. I’ve always had a big opinion of Osipenko and I want to be forgiving of his heavy track run last start when it poured during the race. Meridius has been poking along nicely in the right races.
Thomas: Golden Mile gets the right run from his good draw, settling just off the speed and will be ready to pounce from the top of the straight. He had to do plenty of work to cross and get outside leader in the Golden Rose and that told against him late. Golden Mile can bounce back and win the Guineas from the promising Berkeley Square who has done nothing wrong in his lead-up runs. Foujita San has had the right preparation for this race but has to overcome a horror draw. Amenable has claims at odds.
SATURDAY EXTRA
SHAYNE O’CASS’ TOP PICKS
PORT MACQUARIE
BEST BET
Race 4, No.2: DUBLE MEMORY
Been hitting the line with purpose all campaign. Finds himself in another suitable and winnable race and gets the good draw this time.
NEXT BEST
Race 6, No.8: JUBILANT
Paul Perry-trained filly whose third dam is Stratum’s mother. As for this one, she is on a hat-trick of wins having won the Maiden then a Class 2.
VALUE BET
Race 2, No.3: REBELLION STYLE
Grandson of Vormista on debut here off the back of two encouraging trials. Lovely looking horse from an astute stable.
QUADDIE
Race 4: 2,10
Race 5: 1,2,3,4
Race 6: 1,8
Race 7: 1,3,4,5
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
Mikayla Weir probably has as good a chance as anyone of winning the TAB Jockeys Challenge at Port Macquarie, it is as open as they come.
SCONE
BEST BET
Race 3, No.4: TOKEN CAPITALIST
Impressive winner on debut at Hawkesbury followed with an honourable second in his Class 1 at Newcastle.
NEXT BEST
Race 5, No.6: VIENNOISERIE
Was eating up the ground late first-up at Newcastle. Fitter and can sail down the middle here (hopefully).
VALUE BET
Race 7, No.5: HAVLICEK
Not a guaranteed starter here but is surely one for the Black Book. Lovely looker who moves well.
Originally published as Ray and Duff analyse all 10 races on Epsom Day at Randwick
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