Randwick tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy discuss the top chances for the Spring Champion Stakes meeting at Randwick to help you find some winners.
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The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances for the Spring Champion Stakes meeting at Royal Randwick and the Cox Plate at The Valley on Saturday.
SUGGESTED BETS
DUFF’S BEST
Race 10, No.5: BACCHANALIA
BEST VALUE
Race 1, No.8: DIPSY DOODLE
RAY’S BEST
Race 7, No.7: GOLDEN MILE
NEXT BEST
Race 10, No.7: CLEMENCEAU
VALUE BET
Race 9, No.11: NEVER TALK
ROYAL RANDWICK
Race 1: KIRKHAM PLATE (1000m)
Ron Dufficy: I loved the way the filly Dipsy Doodle went about her work in her second trial. She looked the ultimate professional with a good turn of speed so I am happy to go her way. Obviously Godolphin are very strong here if they run them all and Barber was the other one, he has brilliant gate speed and he does have barrier one so he should give a big sight. Coincide caught the eye hitting the line hard out wide in his trial and should learn from that experience. Infatuation did everything right leading all the way on a wet track in her Gosford trial and that stands her in good stead.
Ray Thomas: Gitalong is a striking type by Zoustar who has shaped promisingly in two trials, particularly at Hawkesbury earlier this week. He looks a natural runner and I’m leaning his way. I liked the way Coincide worked to the line wide out in his trial and he should be strong late. Kintyre is a half-brother to last season’s Golden Slipper winner Fireburn so he is bred to handle rain-affected going. He’s shaped well in two trials and is one to watch. Godolphin does have a particularly strong hand with five runners. I don’t mind the outsider of the group, Faberge, a full sister to outstanding sprinter Bivouac.
RACE 2: TAB HIGHWAY (1800m)
Dufficy: What do we do with Jalmari? He’s been costly but there have been excuses with the bias last start and his run was by far the best in the race. He is back to 1800m which suits him and he gets another chance. King Of Spades has to go in with his sheer consistency and he deserves to win another race. Socrates was favoured by the bias last start but he has put two strong wins together now and he makes his own luck up on speed. Best of the rest is Sumdeel. It’s a big ask 1800m first-up but she has trialled nicely.
Thomas: I’m with Socrates. He’s chasing a hat-trick of wins after his dominant effort in wet conditions here last start. Jalmari is ready to win and just needs to get some luck in running. The Randwick 1800m suits. I’ve also included King Of Spades in my numbers as he is so honest. Almahero was disappointing when in the market behind Socrates last start but the track was extremely heavy that day and he’s worth another chance.
RACE 3: MIDWAY HCP (1200m)
Dufficy: I know he has 64kg but Tristate is the best horse in the race and I think he can carry the weight to victory. The last 50m will be the problem but he’s going to give an almighty sight. Mayrose should be forgiven for her last start effort on a bottomless track and she should be judged on her previous form. She is right in this. Either Oar has been racing consistently at this level at his last two runs. Russbuss gets the claim, finds the right spot and won’t be far away.
Thomas: Russbuss is racing in very good form and scored a deserved win at Kembla in heavy going last start. She carried a big weight that day and drops 6.5kg to just 53kg after the claim. The barrier draw and track conditions are also in her favour. Either Oar hasn’t had much luck in recent starts and could win this without surprising. Different Strokes is resuming but is a very handy sprinter when right and Tristate will be hard to beat but his big weight is a leveller.
RACE 4: EGROUP PROTECTIVE SERVICES HCP (1600m)
Dufficy: I’ve always liked Kermanding. He did more than enough first-up, the form out of that race has stood up and he might go on with it this preparation. The big danger is Willinga Rufio. We all know he is a better horse than what we saw at Rosehill the other day when they went out far too hard. Naval Seal is first-up after two very soft trials but early market moves suggest he is in order. Mahagoni is hard to knock, he was up in class last start and didn’t do a bad job. He will be more than competitive in this grade.
Thomas: Mahagoni won a Midway impressively then was competitive when fifth to Hosier at Randwick last start. He’s back in grade and well-placed over the Randwick mile. Hard to beat. Willinga Rufio had obvious excuses last start and could easily bounce back here. Kermanding is coming back after a long injury-enforced break and was very good first-up. He can only improve. Philipsburg continues to hold his form and is over the odds.
RACE 5: VALE BERYL WHITE FILANTE HCP (1600m)
Dufficy: Tricky race I’m with Diamil on the back-up. I don’t think it was run to suit last week and he just might have more upside than a few in this race. Bigboyroy has had a month between runs but he’s fit and ready for the mile. Yiyi is back from 2300m after five weeks off but this is a good race for him as he fits in nice and fresh. Mirann might need the run but his trials are quite nice hitting the line under a hold.
Thomas: I’m giving War Eternal another chance. He just missed running down Ita over 1400m here then was outclassed in the Epsom. He’s better placed here and can run well. Diamil has been improved by two runs from a spell and this race does set up nicely for him. Purple Sector doesn’t want it too wet but if the track is suitable he will be very hard to beat. It’s been a long time since Criaderas showed any worthwhile form but Godolphin are persevering with him so he stays under notice.
RACE 6: BRIAN CROWLEY STAKES (1200m)
Dufficy: Kote is just out of maiden and Midway class but he’s a progressive sprinting type. He’s still learning but looks the leader again and will be hard to run down. Thron Bone has talent. He has had a couple of jump-outs at Mornington, he wouldn’t be here unless he was ready and can run a race. I didn’t mind Spicy Hotpot’s run at Warwick Farm last start when resuming and she can run a race here. Insurrection is going from strength to strength this preparation and is sure to run well again.
Thomas: Dashing Legend was chasing a hat-trick of wins and led early before finishing third in the Tapp-Craig. The extremely heavy track conditions were against this filly last start but she still ran gamely. If Randwick is closer to soft than heavy, she will be hard to beat. Kote keeps improving and will be hard to catch here. Insurrection is the big improver and I’m also wary of Thron Bone.
RACE 7: TAB CALLANDER-PRESNELL (1600m)
Dufficy: This looks a perfect race for Golden Mile. At set weights here, he only has to hold his form to win the race. The only danger is Flag Of Honour. He’s a raw talent, I like the gear change with blinkers on and he did run favourite last start so he’s some sort of threat. Communist is an improving horse who ran right up to the market behind Williamsburg in the Dulcify Stakes and is included off that run. Basquiat has a good draw and going to the mile he could run a place.
Thomas: It’s impossible to tip against Golden Mile. He comes off his Caulfield Guineas winner and is very well placed here at level weights. Top class colt and only needs to handle the wet track to win again. Flag Of Honour is a promising three-year-old who hasn’t been beaten far in the Ming Dynasty Quality and Dulcify Quality, and he gets blinkers today. Communist made Williamsburg work hard to beat him in the Dulcify and that form reads well for this race. A Lot More Love monstered her rivals in the Reginald Allen and she’s not out of place here.
RACE 8: SPRING CHAMPION STAKES (2000m)
Dufficy: I’m thinking barrier one is an advantage for Elliptical as he can get on She’s Extreme’s back. The Victorian is a talented horse who was enormous behind Golden Mile in the Caulfield Guineas. I think the 2000m looks ideal for him. She’s Extreme is the danger. She adds plenty of interest and could get the soft lead up front. Matcha Latte caught the eye in the Gloaming Stakes when he missed the start and did a lot of work so to go down narrowly was amazing. Williamsburg presents beautifully for his Grand Final and his form is very good this spring.
Thomas: Sharp ‘N’ Smart was only second-up when he won the Gloaming Stakes and he can only improve. Tough gelding bred to stay and I feel he’s the one to beat. Matcha Latte probably should have won the Gloaming so he looms as the main danger. I’ve got the Gloaming 1-2-3 in the same order here with Williamsburg ready for 2000m and hard to beat. Elliptical was held up at a vital stage in the Caulfield Guineas when a close second and he has to rate among the main chances.
RACE 9: THE INVITATION (1400m)
Dufficy: I like Espiona. Everyone is jumping off her and it might be the time to jump on. She is back to the scene of that big win at Randwick during The Championships back in autumn. I just feel this is a nice race for her. Forbidden Love is the biggest improver. She was good late last week in the Sydney Stakes after having six weeks between runs. She’s back to her own sex, the Randwick wet and inside draw are all positives for her. Icebath is a quality mare, she won this race last year and is too good to dismiss. Nimalee is one tough mare who never runs a bad race.
Thomas: Never Talk at odds appeals here. She is flying this spring without winning. She gets back in her races but has a powerful finish and enjoys heavy tracks. If Never Talk gets even luck in running, she will be strong late and is good value at double figure odds. Plenty of dangers including top filly Sheeza Belter who is going into The Invitation first-up but she has loads of ability. Icebath won this race last year and could easily go back-to-back. Nimalee is so genuine and will be in the finish. I’ve left out the likes of Forbidden Love and Espiona – but it’s that sort of race.
RACE 10: CATANACH’S JEWELLERS HCP (1200m)
Dufficy: Bacchanalia presents in pristine order third-up from a spell, perfect draw, in-form rider and gets his chance if the fence is OK. The danger is Clemenceau who has been beaten as favourite in two runs back but has done more than enough and just needs things to fall into place from the wide barrier. Bella Rouge is trialling nicely and Acquitted is one to watch. He’s had two trials and was very good in his two Australian runs last preparation. I have to include him with the claim.
Thomas: Clemenceau is a talented sprinter deserving of a change of luck. He’s drawn the outside barrier here but that might not be such a disadvantage coming to the last race. Clemenceau is nicely in after the claim and will go close. Coal Crusher was good first-up and will be fitter. Bacchanalia does look well placed and will be hard to beat. Fox Fighter is underrated and looms as a lightweight chance.
Moonee Valley
RACE 9: COX PLATE (2040m)
Dufficy: I’ve been a fan of Anamoe all the way through and I’m not jumping off now. He gets a nice, sweet run off what looks to be a hot speed and can atone for his narrow defeat in this race last year. The danger is El Bodegon. The import looks a sharp, athletic horse who might have to do a bit of work from the draw. He’s hard to line up but is very talented. I’m Thunderstruck is going well enough, he is another who will be suited with all the speed up front and getting the last look at them. Barrier one is good for Zaaki as I feel he is a much better horse when he finds the fence.
Thomas: Anamoe has won the Winx Stakes, George Main Stakes and Might And Power Stakes in three runs this spring and is clearly the one to beat. The Godolphin superstar has a tremendous will-to-win and he should get the right run from his favourable draw. Zaaki is either going to lead or take the sit if Alligator Blood slides across. Either way, Zaaki will be in the box seat and is going to be tough to run down. I’m Thunderstruck is very genuine and will be running on. Big watch on the classy El Bodegon.
SATURDAY EXTRA
SHAYNE O’CASS’ TOP PICKS
KEMBLA GRANGE
BEST BET
Race 2, No.1: SAVEADATEFORME
Replica son of the Cox Plate winner Savabeel who was in the worst going on debut but stuck to his guns admirably. Has a future.
NEXT BEST
Race 1, No.7: DOMINGO
Another one from the John O’Shea stable; this son of his own former WFA star Contributer is crying out for the 2000m now.
VALUE BET
Race 4, No. 6: EXILE
Fastnet Rock filly in the Godolphin team who has trialled well ahead of her debut. Draw ideally and seems bound for city racing.
QUADDIE
Race 5: 5,9
Race 6: 3,4,5,11
Race 7: 1,7,12,13
Race 8: 6,9
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
Jean Van Overmeire will take some tossing in the TAB Jockeys Challenge provided all of his scheduled rides show up on the day.
ALBURY
BEST BET
Race 1, No.3: LA QUINTA DONNA
Pierro mare from the Mitchell Beer stable whose three career starts have all been here at home, she placed at two of them and was fourth in the other.
NEXT BEST
Race 2, No.6: REDHAIR ‘N’ FREKCLES
Norm Gardner-bred, owned and trained mare whose best form has been on wet tracks; going to get that here that’s for sure.
Originally published as Randwick tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
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