Raceday focus: Brad Davidson previews Grafton

DAVID Kelly believes Camillo is a Saturday class horse in the making and is confident he will “take care of this lot” at Grafton.

DAVID Kelly believes Camillo is a Saturday class horse in the making and is confident he will “take care of this lot” at Grafton on Thursday.

The Grafton-born trainer, who recently moved back home after 12 years on the Gold Coast, has a big opinion of Camillo and believes wet tracks held him back in his first campaign.

DEBUT WIN: JOYOUS START FOR SINGO’S NEW WOMAN

“He is a very promising horse,” Kelly said. “His first run at the Gold Coast was really good but it was on a wet track and he went to the lead and the inside was like quicksand that day.

BRAD DAVIDSON’S BEST BETS

BEST BET: CAMILLO (Race 2, No. 1)

Has trialled well for this and he was well backed on debut last preparation when he just got a bit tired late. His trainer thought highly enough of him to run him in a $100,000 race after that.

NEXT BET: BRONZED VENOM (Race 1, No. 1)

Was found wanting first-up at Ipswich but he may have been in need of the run following just one trial. His form last preparation bodes well for a race like this.

BEST VALUE: JOUEUR (Race 6, No. 6)

Has been knocking on the door over shorter trips and he looks a real natural stayer. He has a win over 2600m next to his name and he was beaten in a three-way go in a tougher race earlier in his career when rising from 1600m to 2200m. Appeals at $5.50.

BEST EXOTIC

Quaddie: 1st leg: 2,3,6,7,9. 2nd leg: 5,6,9,10. 3rd leg: 1,2,3,4,7,12. 4th leg: 1,2,5. $36 for 10 per cent (quaddie percentage will grow with likely scratchings).

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

MATT McGUREN has a strong book of six rides and should leave with multiple winners.

TRAINER TO FOLLOW

STEPHEN LEE has seven runners and a lot of them have solid each-way chances.

SCROLL DOWN FOR DAVO’S EXTENDED PREVIEW

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“He just got a bit weak late and they swamped him. He struck another wet track in that three-year-old race in town and he travelled like the winner coming to the corner and then when he let his head go he just couldn’t (go) in it.”

Camillo finished second in a recent 800m Coffs Harbour trial under a nice hold and Kelly expects him to be hard to beat in today’s Maiden Handicap (1106m).

“He trialled really well the other day at Coffs and he should take care of this lot,” Kelly said. “He comes from a really good family and he will be a lot better on top of the ground and in his trial he showed that. At this stage, I think he will go to Saturday class and everything in the family were Saturday class.”

Another factor in Camillo’s favour is the fact he has early speed on a day where the track should play fast, making it harder for horses to make ground.

Trainer David Kelly is confident Camillo can snare a win at Grafton on Thursday. Picture: Brendan Radke.

While Camillo will carry the flag as Kelly’s leading hope on Thursday, the Grafton trainer will also saddle up Alamaru (Race 4) and Blake Street (Race 7). Kelly is hoping a change in tactics does the trick for Blake Street.

“We are going to ride him quiet and see whether he will get to the line that way,” he said. “The horse has good ability but I think he is a bit of a trickster but if he puts his best foot forward he will be hard to beat.”

Alamaru was beaten 10 lengths on debut at Grafton and Kelly isn’t overly confident on her chances. “She worked well on the track going into her first start but she was very disappointing,” he said. “She would have to turn things right around (today to be competitive).”

Trainer Matt Dunn said Bronzed Venom “should be winning” the opening race at Grafton.

The five-year-old took big strides last preparation and Dunn told punters to forgive his first-up fifth at Ipswich where he looked a touch flat.

“He is in good shape and his first-up run was better than it looked,” Dunn said. “I know it probably looked a bit plain but his fitness wasn’t quite there and he probably needed another trial and all those sorts of things and I think it was OK.”

Matt Dunn believes punters can get off to a flyer with Bronzed Venom on Thursday. Picture: Scott Fletcher

Bronzed Venom has firmed from $3.70-$2.70 in early markets with TAB for Thursday’s Class 3 Handicap (1410m) and Dunn believes his supporters will start the program off on the right note.

“It’s the right race for him and he should be in the first four and I think the track will be playing leader bias (today),” he said. “He has got something that horse and he did a really good job last preparation because I didn’t train him very good and I put him all sorts of different races and tested him a few times and he still come up OK. He has improved a bit too and he should be winning.”

INSIDE MAIL with BRAD DAVIDSON

GRAFTON

RACE 1 (12.50pm)

1. Bronzed Venom has been well backed in early markets and he looks the horse with the most upside. He wasn’t that far away at Ipswich the other day and second-up he should improve for the Matthew Dunn-Matthew McGuren combination. There’s not a lot between 4. Hope Island and 5. Cantillate and they look the main dangers. 7. Pat’s Destiny won well at Port Macquarie last start and should be hitting the line hard again.

BETTING STRATEGY: BRONZED VENOM to win.

RACE 2 (1.25pm)

1. Camillo was well backed when fourth on debut at the Gold Coast last time in and then David Kelly ran him in a $100,000 race where he failed. He obviously has shown a fair bit at home and his recent trial suggests he has come back even better. He should be hard to beat here. 7. Duke Of Frederick went better than it reads on paper last start where he didn’t have a lot of luck and the race was clearly the quickest of three 1010m races on the day. 4. Tough One finished just 1.3 lengths off The Pharoah last preparation at Canterbury but his form before and after that was poor. The recent trial was OK.

BETTING STRATEGY: CAMILLO to win.

RACE 3 (2.05pm)

3. Hidden Storm gets the blinkers on and he should get across and park outside the lead. He is mixing his form but this looks winnable. 9. First Family probably gets back here but he can win with the right breaks, while 8. Star Of Harada was too green at the trials for me to consider as a winning chance here.

BETTING STRATEGY: HIDDEN STORM to win.

RACE 4 (2.40pm)

Another tough race. 1. Woodditton can sit back and let them go in front and finish with a wet sail. 2. Queen Of Kingston wasn’t far away on debut and should only improve off the back of that. 5. Jess Da Dash can improve over this trip, while 8. My Cousin Meryl and 15. Adorato have both caught the eye at recent trials and can run cheeky races.

BETTING STRATEGY: Place bet on ADORATO.

RACE 5 (3.15pm)

Tough way to kick off the quaddie. 9. Ready Zaim Fire might be able to park up midfield here from the good draw and he was beaten less than a length in a stronger race than this last start. 7. Supreme Willy has won two of his past three starts and he will get on-pace favours here, while 2. Fell From Heaven and 3. Spirit Of Husson loom as big improvers second-up. 6. Water Boy has each-way claims if he can handle the drop back to 1100m.

BETTING STRATEGY: READY ZAIM FIRE to win if they can make ground.

RACE 6 (3.50pm)

I don’t normally like playing in these staying races but I’ll make an exception here. 6. Joueur seems generously priced at $5.50 and he has been racing against stronger company than this. He is also a winner at 2600m and just missed in a three-way go when stepping up from a mile to 2200m at the provincials earlier in his career. 5. Jimmy Hoffa looms as the big improver back to country grade and he has been competitive in staying races at Moonee Valley in the past. 9. The Blues Brother is a hard horse to catch but he is capable of running a really good race here. 10. We’re All Ears looks a chance as he will get the trip but he is still a maiden and this is tougher.

BETTING STRATEGY: JOUEUR to win.

RACE 7 (4.25pm)

This looks an absolute lottery unless 4. Knockoura runs. He doesn’t have a jockey engaged as I type this and he may go to a different race in Queensland instead. 1. Another Cocktail, 2. El Teniente, 3. I’ve Got This, 7. Silom Road and 12. Mustaknown should all go in the quaddie but that’s all I would be suggesting here. This is clearly the toughest race of the day.

BETTING STRATEGY: Go wide in quaddies.

RACE 8 (5.05pm)

I like the look of 5. Le Couronnement here and he comes out of a stronger race than most of these. He was beaten by a subsequent winner Northern Knight last time out and Malmoosa has also come out of that race and won since. He should get all the favours with Matt McGuren aboard. 1. Syrah will relish the drop back in trip, while 2. Grey Piranha has upside off his first-up win. 11. Just Imagine and 12. Swift Response go in quaddies despite their poor winning strike rates.

BETTING STRATEGY: LE COURONNEMENT to win.

Originally published as Raceday focus: Brad Davidson previews Grafton