Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Newcastle, Goulburn

An ultra-consistent mare from the Angela Davies yard won impressively at Newcastle last start and can repeat the effort. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL

Trainer Angela Davies returns to Newcastle on Thursday with last start winner Alicia Roma. Picture: AAP Image

Form analyst Mitch Cohen gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Newcastle.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

NEWCASTLE

BEST BET

Race 6 No.2: ALICIA ROMA

Speedy mare from the Angela Davies stable who has never missed a placing in seven starts. Returns to the same track and trip she won at last time.

NEXT BEST

Race 3 No.4: CRAZY RUSSIAN

The Gerald Ryan and Sterling Alexiou-trained gelding raced without a lot of luck last time. From a good draw, he should be in the finish.

VALUE BEST

Race 4 No.8: SUPER

Mark Minervini’s gelding rocketed home first up from a break to finish among the placings and will really appreciate the step up in journey second-up.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 4,6,9,10

Race 6: 2

Race 7: 2,3,4,7,13

Race 8: 1,3,6,11

Dylan Gibbons looks set for a good day on his home track of Newcastle on Thursday. Picture: Getty Images

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

His home track has provided Dylan Gibbons with the second most winners of any venue other than Taree. Well poised to add to his tally.

GOULBURN

BEST BET

Race 2 No.8: MISS FABERGE

Stakes quality filly trained by John Sargent who is looking to break her maiden first-up from a break in country grade.

NEXT BEST

Race 6 No.8: ARTS OBJECT

The Kurt Goldman-trained filly is a winner at her past two starts here and capable of bringing up the hat-trick.

VALUE BEST

Race 4 No.9: NINJA STAR

Knocking at the door of her maiden win, she can knock it down on Thursday.

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR NEWCASTLE

RACE 1

Classic Dreamer went around as a $91 chance on debut last year but showed ability well above those odds. The Brian Walker-trained gelding made up good ground from the back to finish one and a half-lengths away in second. Off that performance he can run a bold race at odds in his first public appearance in 13 weeks. Melissa has shown a glimpse of her ability with a strong recent trial performance. If she can bring that form to race day, she will take some beating. Keysborough is a daughter of Black Caviar’s own progeny, Oscietra that can improve second-up.

Bet: Classic Dreamer each way

RACE 2

Villa Tino can go one better when he returns to Newcastle. The Supido colt produced his best performance this preparation when runner-up to Clear Choice over 1400m on February 25. Trainer Tracey Bartley’s decision to drop back 100m in trip looks ideal as he tired late in that run. Ambassadors is a consistent type that’s placed in three of his six starts. He was there to win last time over the same trip at Wyong before getting overpowered late but wasn’t far away. Mystic Diva is coming off a promising debut at the Sapphire Coast and another forward showing shouldn’t shock.

Bet: Villa Tino to win

RACE 3

Crazy Russian had a nose for finding trouble when punters last saw him. The Gerald Ryan and Sterling Alexiou-trained gelding got caught in traffic in the Kembla straight before surging late to finish on the placegetters heels. With even luck here from a good draw, he can break his maiden. We’ve Gotta Deel will have to go back from barrier 12 as he did last time. Expect he will be doing his best work late again. Ditto Yet He Moves. The unlucky 13 draw isn’t ideal but he showed he’s capable of making up ground from the back on debut.

Bet: Crazy Russian to win

Keagan Latham rides Crazy Russian on Thursday. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 4

Super was exactly that when making up a mountain of ground from the back to finish third over 900m. He is yet to win second-up but gets more in his favour here. The step up to 1200m is ideal and the draw in barrier four should allow him to settle close. He’s over the odds. Cool Jakey is certainly capable of making the often hard jump from maiden win to Benchmark 64 success. He produced a solid effort on debut to win at Canterbury over the same trip and a repeat of that display should hold him in good stead for this. Strombus is coming off a black book first-up run and has talent.

Bet: Super to win. Trifecta 1, 5, 8

RACE 5

Secaution was scratched from Kensington on Wednesday for this. The Annabel Neasham-trained filly looked to win with a bit in hand when scoring at Warwick Farm on February 22 and is capable of doubling the dose here. Up 3kg in weight shouldn’t be an issue. Emerald Cut shined in her debut. She needs to stretch out to 1200m now but there’s no reason why she won’t off her maiden win. So You Battle is a nice type resuming off a couple of nice trial efforts. It may be short of her best but she can produce a bold showing first-up display.

Bet: Secaution to win

RACE 6

Alicia Roma is the sort of mare you’d love to own. She’s been a model of consistency throughout her short career with three wins and four placings in seven career starts. A winner over this track and trip last start, there’s absolutely no reason why she can’t do it again. Markwell Dreamer is making a habit of always being the groomsman and never the groom. With that said, he’s racing well and if that continues he should finish best of the rest. Flora got the better of Alicia Roma at this track and trip two back so she’s got the ability to cause an upset but the draw makes life tricky.

Bet: Alicia Roma to win

Andrew Gibbons sticks with Alicia Roma after winning on her at Newcastle last start. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 7

Kris Lees is taking a heavy-handed approach to his home qualifier with four legitimate chances lining up. Cloudland is the most progressive galloper of the quartet after putting a hat-trick of wins before suffering a narrow defeat in town. He gets the most favourable draw to land close to the speed and feature in the finish. Stablemate Kalapour has trialled up really well. Expect him to go back and keep them honest late. Hasty Duchess has to be over the odds. The Jason Coyle-trained runner was doing her best work late when fourth in the first Qualifier and should be running on again her when it matters most.

Bet: Cloudland to win. Quinella 3, 7, 14

RACE 8

Buba can add to her decent fresh record to finish the day. The Kim Waugh-trained mare has a win and two placings first-up and has trialled up well in the lead up to her return. She gets in OK with 59kg after Amy McLucas’ claim with a draw that allows the apprentice to give her every chance. Convincebility has notched up a couple of decent victories in the bush. There’s no doubt this is tougher but the lightly-raced Hellbent gelding is a progressive type. Rocstar Boy has come close at his past two but must overcome the tougher draw here.

Bet: Buba to win

Originally published as Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Newcastle, Goulburn