Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Kensington

The James Cummings-trained Micro has sent out some very positive signs in his recent trials and he can open his summer campaign with a win at Kensington on Friday.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - NewsWire Photos OCTOBER 27, 2022 : Birdcage reveal for the upcoming Spring Racing Carnival at Flemington racecourse.Jockey James McDonald inside the TAB marquee. Picture NCA NewsWire / Ian Currie

Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Kensington.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

KENSINGTON

BEST BET

Race 5, No.7: MICRO

Strikes the perfect race off two trials which indicate a winning start to the new preparation with more to come over the summer.

NEXT BET

Race 1, No.2: STRAIT ACER

Lightly-raced and progressive colt from the Edward Cummings stable who was impressive in defeat on debut.

VALUE BET

Race 7, No.17: MARS

May need a miracle to get a run but it won’t be a miracle of he wins - and at big odds.

QUADDIE

Race 4: 2,4,9

Race 5: 7

Race 6: 1,4,5,7,10

Race 7: 3,10,12,17

James McDonald will be hard to b eat in the TAB Jockey Challenge at Kensington. Picture: Getty Images

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

James McDonald will be unbackable odds in the TAB Jockeys Challenge; he wins be panels of they all turn up.

MUDGEE

BEST BET

Race 1, No.11: MISS CAPELLA

Won’t have to produce anything above her last two starts to be winning handsomely here.

NEXT BEST

Race 8, No.12: THE CHOSEN ONE

Finished seventh of 10 at Newcastle last start but was only getting warm when it was all over. Step up to 1400m suits.

VALUE BET

Race 3, No.8: SOVEREIGN DANE

Darci Brahma three-year-old from an astute stable on debut off two outstanding trials.

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR KENSINGTON

RACE 1

Strait Acer is a colt on an upward trajectory. He beat Thalassophile in his second trial before his debut in a 1300m maiden at Hawkesbury where he finished a close second. That was over 1300m, this is 1400m and he gets Josh Parr to assist with the wide draw. Kureder was bought for $380,000 at Karaka, quite a sum for an Ocean Park but then again, this horse is a brother to Rosehill Guineas runner-up, Arrogant. Associate has been trialling very well ahead of his debut. Orientak Tycoon has obvious claims.

Bet: Strait Acer to win

RACE 2

Marelle is a sister to 2021 New Zealand Oaks winner Amarelinha, who Waikato Stud sold for $300,000. Not surprisingly, they chose to retain Marelle and send her to Chris Waller who trained this filly’s ‘uncle’, Metal Bender. Long story short, her debut was a cracker and she’s bound for better races. Magic Night Stakes runner-up Magic Carpet has trialled really nicely and obviously has talent beyond maiden class. Zip On By, Les Bridge’s granddaughter of Miss Zoe, sent out some encouraging signs on debut.

Bet: Marelle to win, quinella 1,3

Trainer John O'Shea prepares Comrade Rose who looks tough to beat at Kensington. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 3

Comrade Rosa is above-average. Sure, she has only won two from 10 but her pattern and some bad luck here and there has worked against her more often than not when it is all said and done. James McDonald knows her well; barrier 5 is just perfect too. Lekvarte is a valuable mare from a breeding perspective. Her fourth dam is the great Toy Show. This Joe Pride-trained four-year-old win like a world beater first-up at Wyong one day and has trialled well recently. Grace’s Secret won the Welcome Stakes by four lengths as two-year-old. Market the guide.

Bet: Comrade Rosa to win, quinella 3,6

RACE 4

Tango Fame is a Gerald Ryan and Sterling Alexiou-trained colt by Ryan’s former speed machine Rubick. This colt did some good things in his four starts at his first preparation, highlighted by his three length win at Warwick Farm in a 1400m maiden. Lots to like about his first-up run in a deep race. Euros is a filly on the rise. The Joe Pride-trained Capitalist three-year-old drew barrier 10 of 10, sat outside the leader, but was just too good at Newcastle on Nov 15. Speaking of dominant wins, Royal Merchant beat them easily at Canterbury first-up.

Bet: Tango Fame to win, quinella 2,9

RACE 5

Micro was one of the best triallers in Sydney during the month of November. He didn’t win either of them but make no mistake, nothing went better than he did in the two of those heats. He won at Bendigo like a good horse so was trialled unsuccessfully in a few stakes races after that. Back now to a lower grade and is flying. King Of The Castle has trialled a million times better than it reads on paper and was good in both, yes both, Australian runs for Joe Pride. Zell is always prone to running a cheeky race fresh.

Bet: Micro to win

Apprentice Tyler Schiller rides Rosovo for trainer James Cummings. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 6

Rosovo is a well-bred gelding by Animal Kingdom whose granddam is Rose Of Danehill and third dam is Beach Gown. As for his own prowess, Rosovo has been the proverbial model of consistency with two wins and three placings from 11 starts, all of them at the provincials. Note that he is also an acceptor for Rosehill on Saturday as have some others in this race. Thousand Years is trained by Peter and Paul Snowden who also trained the half-sister, Wayupinthesky. Thousand Years has done a good job throughout and has always looked city class, certainly midweek and probably more. Mr Gee has been very good in two runs back and is peaking. Likely to lose a fair few of these so Kermanding has to get promoted if that happens.

Bet: Rosovo to win or if scratched, Thousand Years to win

RACE 7

Mars is trained by Les Bridge who has housed innumerable winners from this family; all of whom trace back to his barnstorming mare Miss Zoe. Mars is a son of Sepoy with 16 starts under his belt for two wins and four placings. He is more or less a mile-plus type of horse but he was very good at huge odds first-up over 1200m when a closing third to Airman who would be winning this. The other thing about Mars that appeals is that he has raced well on the Kensington track. Baltic Coast is an Irish-bred grey who has raced six times for two wins and three seconds. Both of those wins are for Kris Lees and as credit-worthy as they were, nothing this son of New Approach has done has been any better than his closing second to Deep Snow at Rosehill first-up on November 16. This’llbetheone has got a lot of fight in him. Third-up to 1400m off a win tick two important boxes.

Bet: Mars each-way, if scratched Baltic Coast to win

Originally published as Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Kensington